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Posts Tagged ‘consumer purchases’

Consumer Demand Continues to Contract

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 10th, 2010 8:32 AM |

For those inclined to monitor the pulse of the American consumer, please make it a habit to regularly visit the Consumer Metrics Institute. Rick Davis and team do fabulous, cutting edge, and real-time analysis of consumer activity in our domestic economy. Recall that Rick is already way ahead of the curve in calling for -1.5% 2nd quarter GDP and has an early call for a -2% 3rd quarter GDP.

What has Rick seen over the last ten days? Continued contraction in consumer spending. Let’s navigate. (more…)

Consumer Metrics Institute: ‘Double Dip’ Very Real

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 22nd, 2010 2:44 PM |

I have become a huge fan of Rick Davis of the Consumer Metrics Institute, the Colorado-based effort that tracks real-time consumer purchases to project future economic growth. Recall that during my March 28th conversation with Rick on No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle, Rick projected that 2nd quarter 2010 GDP would register a -1.5% (yes, that is a negative GDP for 2nd quarter 2010). You can read a recap of my interview with Rick here.

What does Rick see lately? Let’s navigate. Rick wrote yesterday:

Speaking of what we do, our Contraction Watch (see top chart below) continues to show a contraction event that has not yet formed a clear bottom. The contraction has, however, extended long enough that the likelihood of the dreaded ‘double dip’ has become very real. (more…)






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