Posts Tagged ‘Ben Bernanke’
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 2nd, 2010 11:34 AM |
Time.
More than any period of the last thirty years, I think it is imperative to view the global economy and market prospects with a longer time horizon. Those in Washington and on Wall Street have never displayed the discipline nor the inclination to truly take this approach. I strongly encourage those reading Sense on Cents to view your personal situation and that of our global economy and market with a longer time horizon. Why?
I personally believe our global economy remains in the relatively early stages of a significant fundamental shift. Recall that the shadow banking system provided 40-45% of the credit to our domestic economy. That shadow banking system remains a mere shadow of itself. Pardon the pun.
Try as he might, Uncle Sam can not fill that credit void forever. Credit demand and credit supply remain overwhelmed by the mountain of debts at the federal, municipal, and personal levels. The bad debt embedded in toxic assets on Wall Street also remains. While selected segments of our private market can and will grow, the economy as a whole remains constrained by the aforementioned debts. The price to service these debts (that is, the prevailing level of interest rates) will likely move higher.
Can we experience a confluence of higher interest rates along with a general decline in wages and prices, that is the core of deflation? That double whammy scares the hell out of Fed Chair Ben Bernanke. These questions and prospects will not be answered anytime real soon. They will take time.
What is an individual to do? Continue to pay down debt and be disciplined in maintaining a diversified investment portfolio. On that note, let’s look back at 2009 so we can most effectively look forward to 2010 and navigate the economic landscape.
The figures I provide are year-end 2009 relative to year-end 2008, and the returns for the year. (more…)
Tags: 2009 DJIA return, 2009 equity market returns, 2009 global equity returns, 2009 market review, 2009 MSCI emergiing market return, 2009 Nasdaq return, 2009 returns for markets, 2009 S&P 500 return, anti incumbent fervor in 2010, asset bubbles in 2010, Ben Bernanke, bond market returns in 2009, Chinese stimulus, crowding out effect and impact, decline in wages and prices, DJ-UBS Commodity Index return in 2009, dollar yen return in 2009, euro dollar return in 2009, Freddie and Fannie investment portfolios in 2010, global debt burden, gold return and performance in 2009, government bond returns in 2009, high yield returns in 2009, ineffective and complicit financial regulatory strcuture in 2009 SEC and FINRA, inflation vs deflation in 2010, interest rate outlook for 2010, international trade in 2009 and 2010, long from above and short from below, manipulation of Chinese yuan, markets, mortgage returns in 2009, municipal bond market returns in 2009, Obama administration focus on redistribution, oil return in 2009, quantitative easing program in 2010, shadow banking system, time, toxic assets on Wall Street books, U.S. Dollar index return in 2009
Posted in General, markets | 1 Comment »
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 2nd, 2009 2:31 PM |
Illustration by Zhou Tao
I have to admit, I chuckled upon reading the news today that the Federal Reserve is debating whether and how it may fight the prospects of asset bubbles developing. The Wall Street Journal addresses this story in writing,
Fed Debates New Role: Bubble Fighter:
Not so long ago, Federal Reserve officials were confident they knew what to do when they saw bubbles building in prices of stocks, houses or other assets: Nothing.
Now, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke faces a confirmation hearing Thursday on a second four-year term, he and others at the central bank are rethinking the hands-off approach they’ve followed over the past decade. On the heels of a burst housing-and-credit bubble, Mr. Bernanke now calls financial booms “perhaps the most difficult problem for monetary policy this decade.”
With Asian property prices soaring and gold prices busting records almost daily, the debate comes at a critical time. Mr. Bernanke wants to use his powers as a bank regulator to stamp out bubbles, but the Senate Banking Committee, which will grill him later this week, is considering stripping the Fed of its regulatory power.
At the same time, pending legislation in the House could leave Mr. Bernanke running a less independent institution. The House Financial Services Committee has passed a measure that would subject the Fed’s interest-rate decisions to scrutiny by the Government Accountability Office, an investigative arm of Congress. Mr. Bernanke and others at the Fed fear that with Congress looking over their shoulders, any decision they make about interest rates would be subjected to the winds of politics — making it harder to control inflation or financial bubbles.
My immediate thought upon reading this article is to think of the bartender who is happy to push one more drink upon an overlubricated patron. Or perhaps a junkie who is willing to sell a down and out addict one more fix in order to ease the pain. (more…)
Tags: asset bubbles, Ben Bernanke, bubble fighter, bubbles, can Fed detect and fight bubbles, Fed Debates New Role: Bubble Fighter, Federal Reserve fighting asset bubbles, has Fed created a bubble
Posted in Federal Reserve, General | 6 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 17th, 2009 9:39 AM |
Navigating the economic landscape brings us down new and varied paths. In going down these paths, will we be able to double back and return to the main road of prudent fiscal and monetary disciplines in both the public and private sector? I am not so sure. I am also not so confident that our government officials and central bankers fully appreciate the implications of their policies and statements. I saw evidence of that just yesterday. Where? How so? Let’s navigate into the domain of the Federal Reserve.
What are the stated goals of the Federal Reserve? From the Fed’s website, we learn the following:
What are the goals of U.S. monetary policy?
Monetary policy has two basic goals: to promote “maximum” sustainable output and employment and to promote “stable” prices. These goals are prescribed in a 1977 amendment to the Federal Reserve Act.
What do maximum sustainable output and employment mean?
In the long run, the amount of goods and services the economy produces (output) and the number of jobs it generates (employment) both depend on factors other than monetary policy. These factors include technology and people’s preferences for saving, risk, and work effort. So, maximum sustainable output and employment mean the levels consistent with these factors in the long run.
So that’s why the other goal is “stable prices”?
Yes. Price “stability” is basically a low-inflation environment where people and firms can make financial decisions without worrying about where prices are headed. Moreover, this is all the Fed can achieve in the long run.
Fed-watchers monitor Fed actions to detect how disciplined our central bank is in pursuing these goals. There are always those who will critique the Fed for being too hawkish or dovish in its monetary policy in pursuit of these goals. (more…)
Tags: 1977 amendment to Federal Reserve Act, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke Reassures Markets on the Dollar, Donald Kohn, Fed's expanded goals and mission, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve stated goals, Federal reserve stated policy, goals of U.S. monetary policy, gold, maximize systainable output and employment, stable prices
Posted in Federal Reserve, General | 1 Comment »
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 23rd, 2009 12:37 PM |
Are Big Ben Bernanke and Turbo-Tim Geithner preparing to gently turn the lights up, turn the music down, put away the hard booze, and throw the coffee on? Have the partygoers on Wall Street had too much of a good time? Has the ‘liquid-ity’ flowed a little too liberally at this bash?
We will all learn more today at 2:15pm or thereabouts when the Fed releases its regular statement assessing our economy. Will a slightly more positve view of the economy actually be met with a selloff in the markets? I believe that may very well happen. Why? The Wall Street party’s ‘hosts,’ that being Bernanke and Geithner, need to prepare the partygoers to sober up, which is a very delicate undertaking. As with any sobering process, the first thing you do is make sure you have called your friends down at ‘the station’ so nobody gets picked up unnecessarily. That ‘cover’ has worked wonders for a long time, but the partygoers may want one more ‘get out of jail free’ card at this juncture. We saw as much in the token fine assessed by the SEC ‘cops’ against Bank of America just last week.
Bloomberg highlights the predicament of the party’s host in writing, Fed May Signal U.S. Economic Recovery Has Started. We do not need to be mentalists to read the tea leaves indicating the Fed’s juice is likely to slow and that it may be time to go home. Bloomberg writes:
>>”The bottom is no longer falling out, but the recovery is still at a very early stage,” said Gertler, who worked with research on the Great Depression with Bernanke before he became Fed chairman. “There is no need to expand the balance sheet now, but it is a bit too early to begin shrinking it.”
>>Central bank officials may also discuss changing the size and duration of their plan to buy as much as $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities and $200 billion of agency debt by the end of this year, said former Fed governor Laurence Meyer, now vice chairman of St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers LLC.
>>Three district bank presidents — Jeffrey Lacker of Richmond, James Bullard of St. Louis and Dennis Lockhart of Atlanta — raised the possibility that the Fed may not spend all the money authorized for the mortgage-backed debt.
>>Fed officials have started talks with bond dealers to use so-called reverse repurchase agreements to drain some of the cash the central bank has pumped into the economy, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.
How are the partygoers on Wall Street preparing for the slowing, if not the end, of this block party? The Treasury yield curve is flattening today. I highlighted this likelihood yesterday when I wrote, “Is the Federal Reserve Readying a Stealth Tightening of Monetary Policy?”
You do not have to listen very hard, though, to hear the crowd on Wall Street sharing their feelings. In fact, this classic tune by Southside Johnny and the Asbury Jukes is playing on Wall Street right about now. ~ LD
Related Sense on Cents Commentary:
“Bernanke Promises to Keep ‘Punch Bowl’ Filled” (July 21, 2009)
Tags: Ben Bernanke, does fed see economy improving, Fed discussions to utilize reverse repos, Fed May Signal U.S. Economic Recovery Has Started, Fed statement on September 23 2009, Federal Reserve policy, Federal Reserve programs to monitor monetary policy, how will Fed react to imrpoving economy, how will Wall Street sober up?, Jeffrey lacker of Richmond Fed James Bullard of St. Louis Fed Dennis Lockhart of Atlanta Fed, Laurence Meyer comments on Fed's buying of mortgages, Tim Geithner, Wall Street cops protect the partygoers, will Fed change its quantitative easiing program in purchasing mortgages, will the Fed change policy to drain liquidity, will Wall Street be forced to sober up
Posted in Federal Reserve, General | No Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 12th, 2009 12:19 PM |
Is the All Powerful Federal Reserve omniscient, omnipotent, and omnipresent? Any institution that purports to be transparent but ultimately clouds itself in a shroud of “financial intrigue” deserves serious questioning. Congressional efforts on this front regularly fall woefully short. With a few exceptions, serious media analysis of the Fed is also deficient. Fortunately, the Wall Street Journal provides a reasonable overview of recent Fed maneuvers, Fed to Keep Lid on Bond Buys. Let’s navigate the inner workings of the Fed and play devil’s advocate in the process.
The WSJ highlights:
Fed officials have become more confident recently that they have stabilized the economy and set the stage for recovery. But divisions are brewing within the Fed over whether it should do more to speed the healing, pause, or start pulling back to avoid an outbreak of inflation.
Those crosscurrents are likely to inhibit bold new strokes by the Fed at its next meeting, in contrast to earlier in the year, when a bleak outlook spurred aggressive action.
At long last, a hint of sanity on the inflation front emanates from within the hallowed halls of the kingdom of the Federal Reserve.
Please recall that when the Fed announced its increased level of aggressive quantitative easing, the 10 yr Treasury rallied 50 basis points from a 3.1% to a 2.6% in one day. That sort of move is unprecedented. The 10yr, even with the Fed’s support, has since retraced 1.2% in the last three months. Where would the 10yr Treasury be without Fed support? 4%, 4.25%, 4.5%? Who could estimate for sure? (more…)
Tags: Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Fed Buying mortgages, Fed chair Bernanke, Fed failed us, Federal Reserve, Federal reserve and inflation, Federal reserve buying Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, Federal reserve managing economy, Federal Reserve meeting, Federal Reserve policy, Federal Reserve programs, has Fed been too aggressive, has Fed injected too much liquidity, has Fed stabilized economy, Inflation, inflation and Fed, is Fed concerned about inflation, quantitative easing by Federal reserve, what is the Fed doing?, will Fed keep buying bonds?
Posted in Economy, Federal Reserve, General | 5 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 28th, 2009 12:15 PM |
The intrigue involved in Bank of America’s takeover of Merrill Lynch goes well beyond standard Wall Street negotiations. Did Fed chair Ben Bernanke and then Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson break the law in the process of pressuring BofA CEO Ken Lewis to complete this bank merger? Bloomberg’s Jonathan Weil has easily distinguished himself amongst all journalists in aggressively addressing this topic. Weil pulls no punches in writing One Nation, Under Banks With Justice For No One.
Lewis, as CEO of Bank of America, possessed material non-public information about Merrill Lynch and was obligated by law to release that information to his shareholders. Lewis unequivocally maintains Bernanke and Paulson pressured him not to release that information which would have potentially derailed the merger. Why didn’t Lewis get Bernanke’s and Paulson’s position in writing? Did Lewis ask for it in writing? Did Paulson and Bernanke knowingly avoid a legal quagmire by not contractually committing in writing to increased government support for Lewis’ acquiescence?
Weil provides a clear expose of this situation. I commend him! He writes:
The spectacle of Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson running roughshod over Kenneth Lewis and his minions at Bank of America Corp. raises a pivotal question for all Americans: Is the U.S. a nation of laws, or a nation of banks?
Let’s start by examining the facts disclosed last week in a letter by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo while taking pains to present the actions of each player in this drama in the fairest possible light. (more…)
Tags: Andrew Cuomo's investigation of Bank of America's takeover of Merrill Lynch, Bank of America takeover of Merrill Lynch, Barney Frank, Ben Bernanke, Christopher Dodd, Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke pressure Ken Lewis, jonathan Weil, Mary Schapiro, Merrill lynch taleover by Bank of America, New York AG Andrew Cuomo, SEC
Posted in Bank of America, Banking Institutions, Barney Frank, Ben Bernanke, Christopher Dodd, Economy, General, Henry Paulson, Moral Hazard, Wall Street | 5 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 23rd, 2009 6:58 AM |
When Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America, purchased Merrill Lynch last Fall did he put country first but his shareholders’ interests second? The WSJ Reports Lewis Testifies U.S. Urged Silence on Deal.
The BofA purchase of Merrill did not feel “right” to me from the outset. Why? Recall that at the time of this deal, Lehman had just failed and other investment banks’ stocks (Merrill, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs) were plummeting. Given that dynamic, why did BofA pay a fairly sizable premium for a firm in distress? Merrill’s stock was trading somewhere in the mid-teens but BofA paid the equivalent of $29 a share. It is said that Lewis paid such a premium in order to retain the renowned Merrill retail brokerage staff, but it struck me as more directed by Uncle Sam than anything else.
In early February I questioned What Really Happened With Merrill and B of A. I summarized then that normal business decisions and strategy do not occur when operating in uncharted waters. Well, in the last two and a half months our economy and financial industry have moved into even deeper waters.
In looking back at the height of the waves swamping the Merrill ship, the WSJ report reminds us: (more…)
Tags: bank of America's purchase of Merrill Lynch, Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson, Ken Lewis, Paulson pressures Lewis
Posted in Banking Institutions, General | 8 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 13th, 2009 6:39 PM |
It seems as if Wall Street banks are releasing “surprisingly positive” earnings in stealth fashion these days. Goldman Sachs was expected to release 1st quarter 2009 earnings tomorrow. Well, Goldman just released that they “blew the doors off” the building in a very explosive and positive fashion. Bloomberg reports Goldman Sachs to Sell $5 Billion in Stock, Repay TARP:
The New York-based bank earned $1.81 billion, or $3.39 a share, in the first quarter as a surge in trading revenue outweighed asset writedowns. The results beat the $1.64 a share estimate of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
The earnings were driven by a sizable increase in trading activity which reads as a major gain in market share. With Bear, Lehman, and Merrill all gone and Citi and BofA in the hospital, the crowd at Goldman is sowing while the sun shines. What does that mean? For those who want or need to “play,” Goldman is now one of the few shops truly open for biz. The price to “get in the game” just went up and Goldman’s franchise is clearly benefiting:
Goldman Sachs benefited as the gap between what banks pay to buy fixed-income securities and the price at which they sell, the so-called bid-ask spread, almost doubled to 19 basis points in six months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Over and above the earnings, Goldman has sent a clear signal to Uncle Sam requesting him to leave the Goldman “casino.” With Goldman’s earnings power clearly defined, the firm has announced its intention to raise more equity capital and pay back the TARP money it received last Fall. It will make that equity raise after the release of the Bank Stress Tests at the end of the month. Uncle Sam’s intentions to oversee compensation, business practices, and the like is the antithesis of how Goldman operates. While the actual cost of the government TARP money is cheap, the unknown costs are enormous. Goldman has no interest in maintaining those risks. (more…)
Tags: Ben Bernanke, Goldman Sachs' earnings, managed earnings, TARP repayment, Tim Geithner, Wall Street, Wells Fargo earnings
Posted in Bailout, Economic Stimulus, Economy, General, TARP | 1 Comment »
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 8th, 2009 11:35 AM |
Why is it urban school dropout rates are 50%? Well, I am sure there would be as many reasons for that horrendous statistic as there are dropouts. The fact of the matter is, though, the state of urban education has promoted a phenomena known as “social promotion.” If students aren’t qualified to do the work, testing has been gamed, standards have been lowered, and corners have been cut. As a result, urban education at this stage is an unmitigated disaster. What does this have to do with the current state of our economy and the world of finance? I am glad you asked.
If banks, much like students, are not required to pass rigorous testing, then “social promotion” in finance will produce results not unlike those in education–underperformance and ultimately an inability to compete on the global stage.
Against that backdrop, I personally looked forward to the results of the Bank Stress Tests. Let’s finally get an honest assessment of the “students.” Let’s see how they have performed and let’s project to see how they will perform!!
As with any test, the results are only meaningful if the process and proctor have unquestioned integrity. The proctors for the Bank Stress Test are none other than Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Fed chair Ben Bernanke. Why is a testing authority of the magnitude of FDIC, led by Sheila Bair, not more involved in the process? Ms. Bair is the one individual in our country with the greatest level of interaction with and understanding of the student body, that being the banking industry as a whole and individual banks specifically. (more…)
Tags: Bank Stress Tests, Basell II, Ben Bernanke, FDIC, Sheila Bair, social promotion, Tim Geithner, transparency of bank stress tests
Posted in Bad Bank, Bank Failure, Bank of America, Bank Stress Test, Banking Institutions, Business, Commerce, Economy, FDIC, General, Reputation, Sheila Bair, Tim Geithner, Wall Street | 6 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 5th, 2009 11:43 AM |
The genie, in the form of the Federal Reserve, has granted the markets a lot more than three wishes over the course of these challenging economic times. What are some of the wishes granted so far? Let’s review:
1. cutting the Federal Funds rate to a range of 0-.25%.
2. backstopping a wide array of short term funding operations, including the Commercial Paper market, Money Market funds, and Swaps market.
3. opening the Federal Reserve discount window for investment banks prior to their conversion to commercial banks.
4. utilizing a massive Quantitative Easing program to purchase government, mortgage-backed, and government agency securities in an attempt to bring interest rates down and jumpstart borrowing by consumers and corporations.
5. working in concert with the Treasury and FDIC to implement the TARP (Troubled Asset Recovery Program), TALF (Term Asset-Backed Lending Facility) and PPIP (Public-Private Investment Program).
In the process of implementing all of these activities, this genie, the Federal Reserve, in the person of chairman Ben Bernanke, has gone places no genie has ever gone before.
The question before the court is whether the free market can ever get the genie back in the bottle. Additionally, aside from getting the genie back in the bottle, these wishes granted by the genie aren’t exactly free. How so? (more…)
Tags: backstopping money market funds, backstopping the commercial paper markets, backstopping the swaps market, Ben Bernanke, cutting the Fed Funds rate, Federal Reserve policy, hyper-inflation, Inflation, PPIP, quantitative easing, TALF, TARP
Posted in Inflation, Wall Street | 2 Comments »
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Is the Wall St. Block Party at the Geithners and Bernankes Breaking Up?
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 23rd, 2009 12:37 PM |
We will all learn more today at 2:15pm or thereabouts when the Fed releases its regular statement assessing our economy. Will a slightly more positve view of the economy actually be met with a selloff in the markets? I believe that may very well happen. Why? The Wall Street party’s ‘hosts,’ that being Bernanke and Geithner, need to prepare the partygoers to sober up, which is a very delicate undertaking. As with any sobering process, the first thing you do is make sure you have called your friends down at ‘the station’ so nobody gets picked up unnecessarily. That ‘cover’ has worked wonders for a long time, but the partygoers may want one more ‘get out of jail free’ card at this juncture. We saw as much in the token fine assessed by the SEC ‘cops’ against Bank of America just last week.
Bloomberg highlights the predicament of the party’s host in writing, Fed May Signal U.S. Economic Recovery Has Started. We do not need to be mentalists to read the tea leaves indicating the Fed’s juice is likely to slow and that it may be time to go home. Bloomberg writes:
How are the partygoers on Wall Street preparing for the slowing, if not the end, of this block party? The Treasury yield curve is flattening today. I highlighted this likelihood yesterday when I wrote, “Is the Federal Reserve Readying a Stealth Tightening of Monetary Policy?”
You do not have to listen very hard, though, to hear the crowd on Wall Street sharing their feelings. In fact, this classic tune by Southside Johnny and the Asbury Jukes is playing on Wall Street right about now. ~ LD
Related Sense on Cents Commentary:
“Bernanke Promises to Keep ‘Punch Bowl’ Filled” (July 21, 2009)
Tags: Ben Bernanke, does fed see economy improving, Fed discussions to utilize reverse repos, Fed May Signal U.S. Economic Recovery Has Started, Fed statement on September 23 2009, Federal Reserve policy, Federal Reserve programs to monitor monetary policy, how will Fed react to imrpoving economy, how will Wall Street sober up?, Jeffrey lacker of Richmond Fed James Bullard of St. Louis Fed Dennis Lockhart of Atlanta Fed, Laurence Meyer comments on Fed's buying of mortgages, Tim Geithner, Wall Street cops protect the partygoers, will Fed change its quantitative easiing program in purchasing mortgages, will the Fed change policy to drain liquidity, will Wall Street be forced to sober up
Posted in Federal Reserve, General | No Comments »