Subscribe: RSS Feed | Twitter | Facebook | Email
Home | Contact Us

Reich to Obama – Re: Geithner

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2009 8:44 AM |

Cross Posted from No Quarter!! Thanks!
Major h/t Andy!!

Since this pretty much speaks for itself, I’m just going to step out of the way.

From Robert Reich’s Blog:

(Robert Reich was the nation’s 22nd Secretary of Labor and is a professor at the University of California at Berkeley. His latest book is “Supercapitalism.” This is his personal journal.)

FRIDAY, MARCH 13, 2009
Paul Volcker to Barack Obama

Former Fed Chair Paul Volcker is briefing President Obama today on how well the stimulus package is doing. I have no inside knowledge of what he’s saying, but if I were Volcker (and I’m not — he’s almost two feet taller than I am), I’d say the following:

Mr. President, it’s way too early to know exactly what the stimulus is doing because the money is barely out the door, but I’ve got to tell you I’m worried as hell. Unemployment is at 8 percent, and underemployment is over 14 percent of the workforce. The economy is shrinking much faster than it was when you put the stimulus together. It will be more than a trillion dollars short of its full capacity this year, and I have every reason to believe the same next. State governments alone are hundreds of billions in the hole, creating a huge drag. So your $787 billion over two years, only two-thirds of which is direct spending, isn’t going to get us nearly far enough. I’d strongly recommend you make ready a second stimulus, about the same size, and get it enacted as soon as possible, with the proviso that it will be implemented if and when unemplyment hits 8.5 percent or underemployment reaches 15 percent.

Oh, and by the way, Mr. President. You may not want to hear this, but your Treasury Secretary is making things worse. His dithering on what to do about Wall Street, and his incapacity to speak clearly to the Street and to the public about what needs to be done, is spooking everyone. Why doesn’t he just put the irrevocably insolvent banks into receivership under the FDIC, sell off their assets, protect depositors, and reimburse taxpayers with whatever remains? Let the rest of the banks fend for themselves — working out their bad loans with their creditors. As to AIG, well, that’s a complete basketcase. Put it out of its suffering. Take it over, sell its assets, protect policy holders (you’ll need to create a big co-insurance plan with every other major insurer in the world), then get out.

Want a cigar?

I don’t smoke, but a cigar and a health shot of tequila is sounding good about now. And it couldn’t make the sick feeling in the pit of my stomach any worse.


In 30 Minutes, Join us for “No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle”

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 15th, 2009 7:30 PM |

SAME GREAT SHOW, BRAND NEW NAME! Join me this evening from 8:00 to 9:00 p.m. ET on No Quarter Radio for Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere! With the stock market near 12 year lows, what is driving the flows? What is truly going on in the economy? Where are markets headed? What is happening in Washington and how is that impacting Wall Street? So much to cover.

The developments in the markets, economy, global finance, Wall Street, and Washington are occurring at breakneck speed. I will try to slow things down a bit and provide a sense of perspective. What did we learn in the markets over the last week and month and what do they mean for the weeks and months ahead? What is happening overseas and how does that impact us here at home? What is happening in the municipal sector and how will that impact the markets and our personal finances?
Read the rest »


Tune in to No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. SAME GREAT SHOW, BRAND NEW NAME!

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 15th, 2009 12:35 PM |

Please join me this Sunday evening (tonight!!) on No Quarter Radio from 8-9 p.m. ET for an hour of enlightenment on the markets, economy, and global finance. Will an hour be enough time to address the multitude of topics and developments from Wall Street to Washington and around the world? With the stock market near 12 year lows, what is driving soc-promo5the flows? What is truly going on in the economy? Where are markets headed? What is happening in Washington and how is that impacting Wall Street? Is the rally in the stock market sustainable? Are there signs of a bottoming in the economy? What about the weakest link in Europe? What is happening in your local economy? Please share your insights. So much to cover!!

These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere! What is on your mind? What would you like to address? Please share your questions and thoughts by calling in to (347) 677-0792, and also join our live chat room, which I’ll start up about 10 minutes before the show begins!

As a reminder, all NO QUARTER RADIO programming is archived and can be played back at any time. Just go to the NO QUARTER RADIO site and look for previous episodes. In addition, each program is available as a podcast on iTunes.

Many thanks to Larry Johnson and the rest of the team at No Quarter USA blog for providing such a vibrant vehicle as NO QUARTER RADIO. I look forward to having you join me Sunday evening as we collectively navigate the economic landscape!!


AIG “Robs the Bank”

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 15th, 2009 9:07 AM |

When an entity has an 80% equity stake in a company, one may think that nothing of substance could happen there without that majority shareholder’s consent. Well, how is it that the black hole known as AIG to Pay $450 Million in Bonuses. 

We may see some arm waving and loud pronouncements from Congress about investigations, but the question still begs as to how this happened. The government took this majority stake in AIG last September. Are we to believe government representatives were both unaware of potential contractual payments and that they did not approve them? How could the government approve payments within a division that brought the global markets to its knees? 

Perhaps we should revisit the theme of my piece, How Wall Street Bought Washington.  Embedded in that piece, we can see the insurance industry lavished $220 million in campaign contributions and $1.1 billion in lobbying dollars on Washington over the last decade. AIG was one of the primary sources of that money.

Follow the money!!

LD


Let’s Meet David Darst

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 14th, 2009 6:00 PM |

David Darst may not be a household name for the general public, but for those involved in the world of finance he is held in very high regard. In fact, I think so highly of David that in the Sense on Cents Reading Room, I included his book:

The Complete Bond Book: A Guide to All Types of Fixed-Income Securities
by David Darst
– the Wall Street insider’s Bible to all types of fixed income securities.

David was interviewed yesterday on Bloomberg News. He touches on issues I have recently addressed here at Sense on Cents. I appreciated his commentary on the fact that the equity market rally this week was a “psychological” bounce in the context of a bear market. I addressed the particulars of the current market psychology in my piece, Is the Market Oversold? UPDATE.

Darst also offers enlightening color on overall market outlook, inflation, and places to hide amidst this turmoil.  I know you will not be disappointed in viewing Morgan Stanley’s Darst Sees Psychology Driving Stocks. It’s a 5 minute clip from a man with a lifetime of experience!! I am happy to bring it to you as we collectively navigate the economic landscape.

LD


The Global Economic Horizon

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 14th, 2009 2:45 PM |

While there is nothing like a nice 10% rally in equity markets to salve a wounded soul, let’s not get overly ebullient. The global economy is facing a host of issues the likes of which it has not seen in a long time, if ever.

I truly relish the honest perspectives offered by a number of our Thought Leaders. A recent piece posted by Professor Ken Rogoff, a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, and currently a professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard, lays out a logical road map for global interest rates, economic growth, sovereign defaults, and inflation. Let me preface Rogoff’s piece by stating the road will be long and steep!

What does Rogoff think about the prospects here in the United States under the Obama administration?  He writes, “US long-term growth could be particularly dismal, as the Obama administration steers the country toward more European levels of welfare assistance and income redistribution.”

I strongly recommend Rogoff’s  What is the Deficit Endgame?  Please access a wealth of other global perspectives at the Thought Leaders link (in the left sidebar), which provides access to leading global economists and over 400 periodicals from around the world.

LD


Mortgage Modification Guidance

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 14th, 2009 12:00 PM |

There is little doubt that there was massive fraud perpetrated by unsavory and unethical mortgage brokers during the housing boom.  I do not mean to paint all mortgage brokers with the same brush. As with any industry, there are a tremendous number of highly ethical people working hard to make an honest living. Regrettably, not everybody falls into that camp.

Our economy would be well served if both local and federal authorities worked harder to expose the criminals in the system, indict them, prosecute them aggressively, and make them pay a very stiff price for their actions.

Not too surprisingly, some of the same ilk that wrote fraudulent mortgages are now populating the mortgage modification industry. People need to be exceedingly careful in engaging those who seem to want to help them modify their mortgage. Read the rest »


Sense on Cents “Central Station”

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 13th, 2009 6:30 PM |

central-station-promo-3-boldI am pleased to relaunch our weekly departure from “Central Station” on Saturday mornings.  This endeavor here at Sense on Cents is a few hours of written Q/A with your resident host.  I like to utilize the theme of a ride on the rails, so please allow me to expound. 

With so many cross currents at play in the markets, economy, and world of global finance, where can one go to develop a framework of understanding, enjoy the company of friends, and make sense of the madness? Welcome to Sense on Cents “Central Station.” Our ride departs Saturday morning at 9 a.m. with an expected return at 12 noon.  While we traverse the curves along our track, we can address a wide range of issues, including: Obama’s economic plans, Secretary Geithner’s outlook, the market performance this week, month, and year to date, developments overseas, the outlook for our financial regulatory structure, issues of personal finance, or anything else on your mind. 

Our ride is most productive with as many people participating as possible. Please bring not only your questions, but also your views. Invite friends, neighbors, and colleagues along for the ride as well. 

Your conductor is not a professional financial planner. I recommend that you consult with a licensed, qualified professional before making any investment decisions. I am merely a Wall Street veteran looking to help you navigate the economic landscape!!   

Come on back tomorrow morning at 9, submit your questions in the comments section, and away we go.. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaall Aboard!!

LD


Is Your Broker Working For You?

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 13th, 2009 3:01 PM |

The biggest secret in the money game is the manner in which people are compensated. Why is this compensation process such a secret? Very simply, if the general public understood the compensation process they could then understand the motivations of those managing their money. 

At the institutional level, Wall Street typically pays people on a salary plus bonus format. The salary often would represent only 20% of the overall compensation. The bonus would be tied to individual, group, division, and company performance. The bonus would typically be paid 2/3rds in cash and 1/3rd in stock. That stock component would typically be paid out over a three to five year time frame, thus tying the individual to the firm. That lockup is known as “the golden handcuffs.”

Under this format, people are motivated to maximize profits in order to maximize compensation. In maximizing profits, however, inordinate residual risks have often been left on the banks’ books. Thus, the risk/reward model has been skewed. Expect the Wall Street compensation model to change to address this issue going forward. Read the rest »


A Question of Honor

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 13th, 2009 1:00 PM |

On January 31st, I wrote a lighthearted piece, Know Your Customer, about my personal experience with an Asian counterparty.  The lesson I learned from that experience back in the late 1980’s was that business dealings in Asia are ultimately “a question of honor.” Are you honorable in your manner? Are you honorable in your engagement? Are you honorable on a going forward basis? Are you honorable in both word and deed? Obviously in a meaningful relationship, this code of honor must run both ways. 

Our relationship with the People’s Republic of China hinges on American consumers’ purchase of Chinese exports and ongoing Chinese purchase of U.S. government debt.  As I just highlighted in my most recent piece, Chinese exports fell 26% in February 2009. Numbers like that will make any government uneasy. During challenging economic periods, the tenuous nature of any economic relationship is captured in understanding the nuances of the Prisoner’s Dilemma.  Read the rest »


« Newer Posts — Older Posts »






Recent Posts


ECONOMIC ALL-STARS


Archives