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Let’s Listen to Stephen Harper

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 18th, 2009 11:22 AM |

canadian-flagA month or so ago, I introduced former Australian Prime Minister and Treasury Secretary Paul Keating to our readers here at Sense on Cents. Keating offered a wealth of piercing and insightful perspectives on the world of global finance. He forecasted the likely shift of global financial power toward the surplus countries in Asia. While I have never seen nor heard Keating’s views broadcast here in the United States, I appreciated his sobering analysis.

In a similar vein, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is not exactly a household name in the United States. We were provided the political strappings of President Obama’s initial foreign trip when he traveled to Ottawa to meet Harper 6 weeks ago. The pomp and circumstance along with the Royal Canadian Mounties made for some nice theatre. Read the rest »


AIG: Ain’t It Great!!!

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 18th, 2009 8:54 AM |

Where can one generate billions in losses and still walk out the door with millions in compensation? Welcome to AIG, now known here at Sense on Cents as “Ain’t It Great!!” 

As details leak out of Congress as to who knew what and when did they know it, the level of political posturing is soaring. Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY), who has fed at the Wall Street trough for years, offers us these pearls of wisdom: “We intend to do everything in our power to prevent the payments from being made and to recoup the payments that have already been made. We will take this back and return it to its rightful owners, the American taxpayers.”  Chuck, where were you six months ago when the initial AIG loan was negotiated? Read the rest »


St. Patrick Smiles on the Market!

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 17th, 2009 5:34 PM |

When trading bonds, I used a rule that Tuesday’s price action often reversed Monday’s. While that rule of trading was strictly a quirk based upon years of experience, I found it happen so regularly that I never discounted it. 

Supported by a surprisingly strong housing starts number (+22% to 583K) and a relatively mild increase in PPI (producer price index) of .1%, the market opened relatively flat today but firmed all day right into the close. The major stock market averages closed up 2.5%-4%!! Read the rest »


Wall Street’s New Mousetrap?

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 17th, 2009 11:33 AM |

Populist outrage is growing at the egregious bonus payments made at firms which took government money. Not every firm voluntarily took government money and, in my opinion, should not be restricted by government controls over bonus payments. However, the entry of the government into the financial industry is quickly creating a sea change in Wall Street’s outlook on compensation.

Is Wall Street working on building a better mousetrap to sidestep the government’s involvement? You can bet on it.  Wall Street Pursues Pay Loopholes highlights some of the early maneuvers firms are looking to make to address this issue. Read the rest »


AIG Contracts a Brain Freeze

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 17th, 2009 9:27 AM |

Given the public outrage over the millions in bonus payments at AIG, is there any doubt that there has been a massive failure to perform by all involved?

When AIG was on the verge of bankruptcy last September, I am willing to bet the topic of employment contracts was not the lead item on the agenda. In fairly short order, though, as AIG was moving ahead with its attempt to sell divisions and repay the government loan, I have to believe outstanding liabilities, such as employment contracts, became a topic of discussion.  

Let’s bring the main players at that point in the process back to the table. What does Hank Paulson have to say? How about Robert Willumstad, former AIG CEO? How about current AIG CEO, Edward Liddy?

Make no mistake, both the government and AIG executives could have imposed their will to renegotiate – if not outright dismiss – any outstanding contracts. How? When an entity such as the government takes over a company, a change of control occurs. That change of control does not unilaterally extinguish outstanding liabilities, but it certainly opens them for renegotiation. The fact that these contracts were not seriously renegotiated is a massive failure to perform on behalf of the government officials and AIG executives. Read the rest »


Let’s Revisit Europe: The Weakest Link

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 17th, 2009 5:15 AM |

I thank our loyal reader in Michigan, Mr. Fiscal Liberal, for sharing with us a piece written by Simon Johnson, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Mr. Johnson writes about the growing problems in Europe. I am hard pressed to see how the European situation, both in the East and West, can not end badly. There are too many economies that are effectively insolvent or on the brink of insolvency. I believe this is the region of the world which will experience increased economic strife leading to social unrest and political change. Can the problems in Europe be contained given the massively interconnected world of global finance? 

Thank you again FL for sharing this very enlightening piece from Simon Johnson!!   

G-20s Real Agenda Should be Saving Europe from Itself
By Simon Johnson
Last Updated: 10:28AM GMT 16 Mar 2009

The media coverage of the G20 finance ministers meeting this weekend was dominated by the apparent battle between those who support more fiscal stimulus and those who want to impose more regulations on the financial system.

This, we are led to believe, is the big debate facing the full G20 heads of government summit early next month: the US is pushing for a bigger global fiscal stimulus (2pc extra government spending from everyone, to be monitored by the IMF), while the continental Europeans are holding out for greater regulation. Gordon Brown is trying hard to cast himself as the broker for any apparent deal.   Read the rest »


Market Fades on the Close

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2009 6:30 PM |

Monday’s price action in the equity markets was particularly interesting. The market opened firm, up approximately 1%, and continued to trade with a very firm tone all day. What precipitated the strong tone? Fed chair Ben Bernanke was interviewed on 60 Minutes last evening. On that show, Bernanke Defends Recovery Efforts in Rare TV Interview.

First and foremost, it is very uncharacteristic for anybody from the Fed to consent to an interview targeted at a general audience. I view this as Bernanke trying to make the case for himself, the Fed, and the economy during these challenging times. In fairly short order, Bernanke has gained significantly greater credibility than his colleague, Secretary Geithner. Bernanke also spoke well of the economy turning around later this year IF the financial system recovers. That is a mighty big IF!! Read the rest »


Obamanomics: Conservative or Revolutionary?

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2009 4:17 PM |

A loyal reader shared with me a recent posting from former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich. Earlier today I cross posted a piece from No Quarter in which Reich was less than complimentary of Secretary Geithner. Well, let’s see what Mr. Reich has to say about President Obama’s economic program: Is Obamanomics Conservative or Revolutionary?

Prior to delving into my thoughts and commentary on Reich (or anybody), I always find it useful to consider the perspective of the writer. In regard to Mr. Reich, let us not forget that Robert Reich Excludes White Male Construction Workers from Obama Stimulus Plan. Utilizing that perspective, Mr. Reich would be considered to be more than slightly left of center. Additionally, in considering the Obama economic plans, I think it is critically important to incorporate the economic plans and agenda of the Democrats in Congress. These Congressional leaders have a major influence in this process. These Democrats, including David Obey (D-WI), Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Harry Reid (D-NV), Barney Frank (D-MA), Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Chris Dodd (D-CT), and Steny Hoyer (D-MD) amongst others are major players in the stimulus, budget, and Omnibus bill that have come down from Congress. It is not totally clear where the lines are drawn between the White House and Congress on all the economic issues. That said, let’s see what Mr. Reich has to say and then critique his assessments of Obamanomics. Read the rest »


What About Commercial Real Estate

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2009 12:31 PM |

On my radio show last evening, I touched on some of the pressing issues facing our economy and, in turn, our markets. These issues include residential housing, municipal finance, automotive, and commercial real estate. While the first three issues seem to get a wealth of very personal and humanistic coverage from the media, the world of commercial real estate seems much more opaque. The site of large office buildings, suburban shopping malls, upscale hotels, warehouses, and apartment complexes do not evoke the level of human emotion involved in a foreclosed home, municipal layoffs, or factory closings. That said, the problems in the commercial real estate industry should generate just as much concern if not more. Why?

These commercial properties are the glue in our entire world of global finance. While the development of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market brought a large amount of liquidity to this sector, the shutdown of that market has just as quickly sucked the oxygen right back out. What has happened as a result? The lack of a transparent market has caused an overwhelming lack of liquidity and as a result properties are not trading. Why? The disparity between perceived value from the buyers’ and sellers’ perspectives is so wide that we could drive that proverbial Mack truck through it. Read the rest »


Lessons from Bear Stearns

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2009 10:37 AM |

It was one year ago that the Federal Reserve and Treasury delivered Bear Stearns into the hands of JP Morgan for $2 a share. Bear Stearns stock had traded above $170 a share in 2006. With the passage of time, what are some of the lessons learned and what questions remain unanswered.

1. Although Bear Stearns employees and shareholders may not qualify a price of $2 a share (revised to $10 a few weeks later) as being saved, would the financial system have been better off letting Bear totally fail? Why? If Bear had failed, many people do not believe we would have had the breakdowns in our financial systems that occurred because of Lehman’s failure.

2. Did Dick Fuld, CEO of Lehman, assume that the Fed and Treasury would save Lehman much as they did Bear? Was he less aggressive in pursuing increased capital injections during the Summer 2008 as a result? Many people believe this to be the case. Read the rest »


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Larry Doyle

Larry Doyle A Wall Street veteran's views and instincts on the markets, economy, and all things financial.







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