General | Sense on Cents - Part 128 Sense on Cents

Archive for the ‘General’ Category

Consumer Metrics Institute: Double Dip Mild, but Prolonged

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 27th, 2010 6:54 AM |

Is the economy slipping into a double dip or has it already slipped and we just need to wait a few months for the mainstream media to hopefully report on it?

Clearly, our domestic and global economies are very fluid and subject to serious fluctuations given the massive amount of government intervention, but where can we go to receive a real-time look at the economy?

Let’s review the work of Sense on Cents Hall of Famer Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute. Recall that Rick and his colleagues capture and review a wealth of consumer retail data across ten sectors of our economy on a ‘real time’ basis. While analysts are downstream assessing developments with production, Rick and team are way upstream assessing what the consumers are doing NOW. Current consumer activity is highly correlated with GDP out 17-18 weeks. Yes, we are getting a sneak peek at next quarter’s GDP now. Amazing stuff.

What does Rick see and what does he project? Let’s navigate. (more…)

Tags: 05, consumer activity, economic growth, Economy, GDP, health of economy, projected GDP, retail activity, Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute, what are consumers doing, will we have a double dip recession
Posted in GDP, General | 1 Comment »

Should AIG Units Be Placed into Bankruptcy?

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 26th, 2010 3:17 PM |

Our financial regulators, government officials, and central bankers may believe the shell game being played with AIG might work to lure buyers into the AIG den but the fact is AIG remains the institutional equivalent of ‘dead man walking.’

Who gets that and is not reluctant to speak her mind? Tarp watchdog and consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren. Her courage on this topic is on display today while AIG chairman Robert Benmosche would like to continue to shuffle the shells around in an attempt to continue to play the game. (more…)

Tags: AIG, AIG Frankenstein, Benmosche Sees Clear Path for AIG to Repay US, Elizabeth Warren, Robert Benmosche, TARP overseer Elizabeth Warren
Posted in AIG, General | 1 Comment »

Financial Times Highlights Great American Joe Saluzzi

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 26th, 2010 12:31 PM |

Confidence in the markets and the economy is ultimately a function of truth, transparency, and integrity.

The reason global investors have such little confidence currently is due to the very simple fact that both the financial industry and their government counterparts have not promoted practices which embrace these cherished principles.

That is not to say that each and every individual in the financial industry or in government does not try to promote these values. In fact, I believe the overwhelming majority of people on Wall Street and in the global markets do embrace these values, but they are not in a position to speak out when the principles are violated. I love it when I come across people who possess the courage and are unencumbered to speak out for the truth, transparency, and integrity our markets, our country, and our world so badly need. Like who? (more…)

Tags: BATS, Chi-Delta, Chi-X, dark pools in Europe, equity exchanges in America, Financial Times May 26 2010, flash crash, FT, hft, high frequency trading, Joe Saluzzi of Themis Trading, market transparency, MTFs on London Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, The Wall Street Journal, Trust in Dark Pools is Dented FT
Posted in Equity Markets, General, Joe Saluzzi | 1 Comment »

Consumer Protection or Big Brother is Watching

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 26th, 2010 11:30 AM |

I am all for financial regulatory reform, but as I wrote the other day I do not trust Washington. I witness further reason not to trust the wizards in Washington after reviewing a gem buried in the Senate’s version of financial regulatory reform.

You likely will not see this in the mainstream media, but thanks to CNS News for reporting Senate Democrats Pass Bill Allowing Government to Collect Addresses, ATM Records of Bank Customers:

Senate Democrats united to pass a financial regulatory bill that allows the government to collect data on any person operating in financial markets at any level, including the collection of personal transaction records from local banks that list customers’ addresses and ATM receipts. (more…)

Tags: ATM receipts, ATM records, big brother, big brother is watching, Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection, CNS News, consumer protection, do you trust Uncle Sam, financial reform, financial regulatory reform, Senate Bill Allows Government to collect Addresses ATM records, trust, trust Uncle Sam
Posted in General, regulation | 6 Comments »

The Muammar Gaddafi of Regulation

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 26th, 2010 9:14 AM |

Does anybody still read Time magazine?

I would expect that Time is likely now relegated to 9th grade Civics classrooms given the depth of reporting embodied in the recent cover article, The New Sheriffs of Wall Street.

If Time would like to be considered a serious publication, they should dig a little deeper prior to reporting this sort of powder puff commentary. Time rightfully does address the fact that Wall Street has been a bastion of male domination. Additionally, they pay proper respect to FDIC Chair Sheila Bair and Tarp watchdog and consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren, but they fall woefully short in their characterization and review of SEC Chair Mary Schapiro.

In this article, Schapiro would clearly like to portray herself as tough as nails on Wall Street while protecting the interests of investors. As Time highlights: (more…)

Tags: Bloomberg Susan Antilla, Elizabeth Warren, FINRA, finra liquidation of ars, how Does It Help Investors, Judge Jed Rakoff, Mary Schapiro, Mary Schapiro tenure at FINRA, Muammar Gadaffi Kim Jong-il Bashar Al-Assad Robert Mugabe, Muammar Gaddafi of regulation, NASD, Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations, SEC OCIE, Sheila Bair, Standard Chartered v FINRA, The New Sheriffs of Wall Street, This Wall Street Lady Enforcer Shoots Blanks, Time Magazine
Posted in General, Mary Schapiro | 5 Comments »

Oil Regulation or ‘Sex, Drugs, and Football’

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 25th, 2010 2:34 PM |

The disaster unfolding in the Gulf of Mexico is enormous and will have an untold impact on our economy and environment. This tragedy could have been avoided. What a shame. There should be hell to pay by those charged with overseeing the oil industry.

Where were the regulators? A statement released just yesterday by the Department of Interior highlights evidence that the regulation of our oil industry in the Gulf has been quite incestuous. What’s a little incest without throwing in a healthy dose of sex, drugs, and football as well. (more…)

Tags: 2005 Peach Bowl game, cost of oil spill in Gulf of Mexico, Department of Interior, Department of Interior release May 24 2010, ian Urbina New York Times, Interior Sex and Drugs 2.0, Lake Charles District Office of MMS, mining and mineral services, MMS, MMS District Manager to IG Obviously We're All Oil Industry, oversight of oil industry, POGO, regulation of oil industry, sex drugs and football
Posted in General | 4 Comments »

Why I Do Not Trust Washington

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 25th, 2010 11:47 AM |

People can debate the relative strength of the economy all they want. I firmly believe that from a macro-level, our economy has years to go before it has a real chance to recover. Why years?

1. The banking system overall remains loaded with an excessive amount of delinquent loans. Uncle Sam will continue to siphon money from the American public and deliver it to the banks. In the process, these “earnings” will be utilized to write down the values of loans and securities it holds at inflated levels.

2. Credit will not truly flow until the health of banks, especially the smaller and community based banks, is substantially stronger. (more…)

Tags: AMA, America's banking industry, America's economy, American economy, American Jobbery Act, American Medical Association, another stimulus package, can we trust washington, community banks, cooking the books, delinquent loans, financial industry in America, health care legislation, health of banks in america, lack of trust in Washington, Medicare physician reimbursements, mini-stimulus, more stimulus spending, Obama Administration, Obama-care, Washington is part of the problem
Posted in General, Washington D.C. | 2 Comments »

IMF: “Spain’s Economy Needs Far-Reaching and Comprehensive Reforms”

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 25th, 2010 9:00 AM |

Global markets are down 2-3% overnight. What is going on?

From a military standpoint, all eyes are focused on the Korean Peninsula after North Korea’s admission of sinking a South Korean vessel in late March. How will the world respond? Will the U.S. issue some sort of warning shot across the North Korean bow? Will the international community, and especially those who treasure freedom, rally and aggressively denounce the North Korean’s aggression or will we witness what amounts to a ‘kumbaya’ session?

From an economic standpoint, all eyes are focused on the Euro-zone where fiscal pressures remain elevated. Today the focus is Spain. (more…)

Tags: banking issues in Spain and EU, banking problems in Spain, debt levels in Spain, debt/GDP, Euro-zone, European economy, European Union, IMF Article IV, IMF mission, IMF report on Spain, International Monetary Fund, issues in Spain, pension problems in Spain, problems in Spain, Spain, Spain economy issues, Spanish economy
Posted in General, International Monetary Fund, Spain | 1 Comment »

The Best Sense on Cents: Strongly Recommended

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 24th, 2010 10:25 AM |

Thanks to a loyal Sense on Cents reader for sharing amazing insights and perspectives from some of the best and brightest minds in the world of global finance today.

Like who? Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff, unparalleled investor Jeremy Grantham, outspoken hedge fund manager Cliff Asness, SEC chair Mary Schapiro (ok, one exception), the extremely private but on Wall Street the extraordinarily highly regarded investor Baupost’s Seth Klarman, internationally renowned Eurasia’s Ian Bremmer, the distinguished Van Hoisington, and noted short seller Jim Chanos.

Their views were put forth at the recently completed CFA Institute annual conference in Boston. There is so much good material here that I beg readers to tag this post and refer to it often. Given the wealth of thoughtful opinion and analyses covering literally every angle of our global economic landscape, one would be hard pressed to digest and process this in one reading. Do yourself the favor, though, and revisit. The wisdom provided here is precious and not commonly found. (more…)