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HomeWhat Market Forces Are Driving Long Rates Higher?
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 24th, 2013 8:05 AM |
With global markets currently palpitating in a fashion all too similar to those living on the Bowery and beginning a withdrawal program, I think it is overly simplistic to say that Bernanke’s remarks alone are forcing ‘everybody out of the pool.’
What are the underlying forces at work in causing such a sharp move higher in long term rates the last 7 weeks?
While the rate on the 2 yr Treasury has moved higher by a not insignificant .2% during this time frame, the 10 year rate has moved higher by close to a full percentage point. Let’s navigate . . . but before addressing the forces at work, how about a cautionary comment as a preface. (more…)
What Did Bernanke Really Accomplish?
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 21st, 2013 8:23 AM |
How will the history books treat Ben Bernanke? Well, only time will tell.
Supporters will tout his integral role in saving the system.
Those who look less kindly on the Fed chair will denigrate him for: 1) his participatory role in allowing Wall Street to bring our economy to its knees, and 2) providing excess liquidity for the well positioned to take advantage of a newly defined rent-seeking economy while the rank and file American public struggle to keep their head above water.
Perhaps he is deserving of both a measure of praise and derision, but let’s take a harder look at what he really accomplished — or not — depending on how you might view things. (more…)
Ben Bernanke: My Work is Done Here
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 19th, 2013 4:29 PM |
I just listened to the release of the FOMC’s statement and juxtaposed that with the Q/A with Big Ben.
I detected some not so subtle differences in these deliveries, and clearly the market did as well.
The markets were remarkably stable after the initial release as the Fed stated that its policy remains unchanged and there was no hint of tapering asset purchases as has been the concern since that term was used by the Fed a month ago.
The statement had a mildly positive spin on the economy but nothing overly exuberant as to serve as a warning sign that the Fed might begin to pull in on the reins so to speak. In fact, the rate of inflation remains well below the long term target of 2% so that should actually allow greater leeway for the Fed to stay the course with its current policy.
Then the afternoon took a decidedly different turn of events. (more…)
Volcker Sends Warning Shot to Fed, Wall St, and DC Recommended
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 30th, 2013 9:27 AM |
In what can only be described as a Sense on Cents Instant Classic, perhaps the most highly respected chair in the history of the Federal Reserve, that being Paul Volcker, delivered a tremendous address yesterday at the Economic Club of New York.
For anybody who cares about the well being of our markets, our economy, and our nation, I strongly recommend you take a mere ten minutes to fully read and absorb the wisdom of Volcker’s words.
What are some of the highlights? (more…)
Fed-speak: Ease Air Out of Bonds – Support Equities
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 20th, 2013 9:38 AM |
“Don’t fight the Fed.”
While the fundamentals of our underlying economy bump along with continued structural headwinds and fiscal support from Uncle Sam remaining anemic, the Federal Reserve’s QE-infinity remains the underlying cornerstone supporting our markets.
With equities making new highs and high yield bonds trading at stratospheric levels, recent pronouncements from Fed officials strike me as looking to accomplish two goals: (more…)
Ben Bernanke Pulls a Yogi Berra
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 2nd, 2013 8:04 AM |
When you come to a fork in the road . . . take it.
In the early years of the last decade, I had the pleasant experience of attending a dinner for a major client at which Yogi Berra was a guest speaker. As a lifelong baseball fan — and by the way, how ’bout those Red Sox? — I looked forward to hearing Yogi regale us with legendary tales about the great Yankee teams.
He started his delivery by unequivocally stating, “I am not good at giving talks, so just go ahead and ask me some questions.” He entertained us with a slew of his famous non-sequiturs in fine fashion.
I thought of Yogi and that dinner when the Federal Reserve released its statement on the economy yesterday afternoon. (Do you notice a facial similarity between Ben and Yogi?) Having read Fed releases for the last thirty years, I am hard pressed to ever remember a statement as ambiguous as this put out yesterday:
(more…)
The Fed Leak: Who is Brian J. Gross?
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 11th, 2013 8:16 AM |
If so, I might caution you from opening e-mail solicitations you receive from individuals in Nigeria informing you that you are the beneficiary of millions of dollars from recently deposed warlords in that nation or other sub-Saharan locales.
I mean, come on. Major financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, The Carlyle Group and more are informed a full day in advance of what the Fed governors are thinking, and the American public is supposed to buy that as an accident? (more…)
CFO Survey: A Time of Extraordinary Risk
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 22nd, 2013 6:53 AM |
Who might that be flashing the warning signals about our markets and our economy?
I am always predisposed to look for risk on the horizon so that we can all navigate accordingly, but the quote referenced in the title of this commentary comes not from me but from professors at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business.
What prompts them to make such a statement? Only a survey of over a thousand global CFOs that projects economic activity a quarter ahead of most other surveys. Now that is the type of material we like as opposed to the “look in the rear view mirror” provided by many outlets.
Let’s navigate . . .
Chief Financial Officers See More Downside Risk in the Stock Market than Upside (more…)
Will Uncle Sam Expand “Too Big to Fail?”
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 20th, 2013 9:45 AM |
There is not even one credible individual in the world today who would believe that we do not still operate under a “too big to fail” model for our banking industry.
We now know that “too big to fail”also means “too big to regulate” and “too big to prosecute.” Free market capitalism is dying a slow and steady death in the process.
Might we ever get out from under the heavy burden of this model? We can only hope. Yet I awaken this morning and vomited my coffee as I read in the WSJ,
Should the government backstop even more of the financial system than it already does?
Sure, if you love a mix of crony capitalism and socialism, wave it in, right? (more…)
Federal Reserve Governors Comments from 2007
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 18th, 2013 7:12 PM |
If anybody thinks that the governors of the Federal Reserve have any degree of foresight on the economy, the following transcripts from 2007 are a MUST read. One governor, (yes one and it was not Ben Bernanke), displayed real foresight and expressed real concern on what likely lay ahead on our economic landscape. Who was it? The one I recently highlighted as calling for the breakup of our TBTF megabanks. That would be Dallas Fed governor Richard Fisher.
After reading this release provided by the WSJ, you may doubt the Fed’s collective capability in managing the economy.
(more…)
Tags: Ben Bernanke 2007 comments, does the Federal reserve understand the economy, Fed comments about sub prime mortgages, Federal Reserve, Federal reserve comments from 2007, Federal Reserve governors comments from 2007, Federal Reserve transcripts from 2007, Janet Yellen 2007 comments, Richard Fisher comments from 2007, Tim Geithner comments from 2007
Posted in Federal Reserve, General | 1 Comment »