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Posts Tagged ‘vision’

Jeff Gundlach Had the Call

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 25th, 2010 7:40 AM |

What is it that distinguishes the greatest athletes in sports, such as Michael Jordan, Bobby Orr, Wayne Gretzky, Peyton Manning, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird? While these ‘best of the best’ have and had many extraordinary athletic skills, those who love the game know that these world class athletes were able to see exceptionally fast moving action in slow motion. (In Manning’s case, he still does!!) As such, they played the game three steps in front of their teammates and four steps in front of the competition. As a result, special things happened.

In the world of investing, there are a handful of investment managers who possess similar instincts. Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital is one of them. Two months ago, Jeff was the keynote speaker at a Morningstar conference. Let’s roll the tape, as I highlighted Jeff Gundlach Sees 10Yr Treasury Rallying to 2.5%:

3. What does Gundlach predict for government bonds?

He said there hasn’t been a single day when the U.S. government bond market has failed to be the beneficiary of risk concerns globally, especially over the euro. “And as long as that’s the case, the probability is the 10-year Treasury is going to go to the yield of two-and-a-half percent,” he said. “Which sounds very low, but it’s been there before. In Japan, when they were dealing with similar problems, the bond yield stayed below that level for 20 years. So the bond market outlook in government bonds, for the time being, is positive.”

Where was the 10Yr Treasury when Gundlach made this call? (more…)

What Will Happen to the American Dream?

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 12th, 2009 2:41 PM |

The pursuit of a better life and greater opportunities have driven successive generations since the founding of our nation. Will that dream live on? Will future generations have a chance to live a better life than the current generation or recent generations?

Is the mere talk of this pursuit of the American dream mere poppycock? Do we think we can regain our economic stature and, once again, experience true economic prosperity merely because we want to have it happen?

Many feel that success is a function of a few basic principles combined with a little bit of luck. Is it truly luck, as some may maintain? No, I think not. I have always thought of luck as nothing more than where ‘preparation meets opportunity.’

In writing on this topic, I am not so hardened to think that families can easily or fluidly pursue opportunities which would entail picking up roots and moving. That said, demographic shifts will certainly be an ongoing theme as our economy and our country adapt to the new dynamics within the ‘Uncle Sam’ economy.

While we could debate at length the merits, or lack thereof, of bank bailouts and government support across a wide array of businesses and industries, I believe a great and unmentioned cost of a number of government programs is the masking of significant structural problems embedded in both the financial and moral balance sheets of individuals, families, corporations, and the government itself. (more…)






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