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Posts Tagged ‘leading economic indicators’

ECRI Forecasting Global Economic Slowdown

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 19th, 2011 8:30 AM |

What lies ahead on our global economic landscape?

Pack lightly because the economic road ahead appears to be increasingly challenging. While government mouthpieces and their media friends are wont to look in the rear view mirror for hints of easier traveling, the wise travelers amongst us always keep our eyes on the road ahead.

Who can help us navigate the upcoming terrain and is forecasting a steep economic slope? I thank one of this blog’s most loyal supporters for introducing the Economic Cycle Research Institute to Sense on Cents.

What exactly makes the ECRI so special?

ECRI is the world’s foremost predictor of recessions and recoveries. (more…)

U.S. Economy = “Walking Pneumonia”

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 30th, 2010 12:36 PM |

The other night in my conversation with Richard Davis on No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle, I defined my outlook for the U.S. economy in 2010 as the equivalent of  ‘walking pneumonia.’  What do I mean? Let’s look at today’s economic releases, Consumer Confidence and Home Prices.

Although pundits may want to promote the rebound in these statistics as a harbinger of economic health, I personally do not think we will see these measures running away from us anytime soon. Have you ever had ‘walking pneumonia?’ I have. You don’t move all that quickly. At times, you wonder what the hell is wrong with you. Welcome to the Uncle Sam economy 2010. (more…)

Is The Economy Turning The Corner?

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 21st, 2009 7:05 AM |

Markets correct by price (both up and down) and time (extended). Despite the 3+% price declines in equity markets yesterday, the markets are up approximately 20% since the market lows seen on March 6th. Some analysts believe this upward move signals an improvement in the economy largely due to the fiscal and monetary stimulus provided by Uncle Sam. I am not in that camp.

A few emerging economies, specifically China, have improved. Can the rest of the world, including the U.S., expect those economies to be the engine for a global turnaround at this juncture? I do not think so. I still see the following issues on our domestic horizon:

1. continued deterioration in loan performance on bank books

2. a banking system woefully capital deficient

3. an automotive industry which must downsize

4. municipalities which are faced with the predicamant of capital shortfalls and underfunded pensions

5. commercial real estate just starting to experience real defaults

6. a housing market with increased foreclosures pressuring prices

7. an unemployment rate clearly headed toward double digits

Earnings reports for the first quarter have been mixed. I view the recently reported bank earnings as largely “managed” via accounting gimmicks. Meredith Whitney believes the earnings for major money center banks will turn negative in the 2nd quarter. The regional banks, without the benefit of large capital market activities but facing credit writedowns, report earnings today. Key Corp just reported a loss of $1.09 eps (earnings per share) versus an estimate of -.21. I suspect we will see losses from other regional banks of a similar magnitude. (more…)

Economic & Market Highlights 10/20/08

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 20th, 2008 10:45 PM |

The markets had a very solid rebound of app. 5% across the board which brings us back to the levels seen literally one week ago. What prompted the rally??

1. Credit continued to loosen. 3mo Libor moved down to 4.05. This rate was in the 4.75% a week to ten days ago.

2. Speculation that the Fed will cut rates at next week’s meeting. The Fed Funds rate is currently at 1.5%. (I also am concerned about this move. I think it increases the chance for real growth in the money supply which becomes a precursor to increased inflation)

3. Speculation that there will be another stimulus package coming from Washington. This package would be in the vicinity of $100-150bln. This package would likely be a mix of extended unemployment benefits, spending on infrastructure, and debates about tax cuts vs spending on liberal programs. (I view this as a shot of morphine to a patient that needs a long term program of more exercise, a balanced diet, and clean living) (more…)






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