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Posts Tagged ‘Goldman Sachs’

Goldman’s Hatzius v Morgan’s Kasman: “Let’s Get Ready to Rumble”

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 30th, 2009 11:20 AM |

I love a good debate. Much like a prize fight, a healthy debate can ebb and flow as those ‘in the ring’ bob and weave while trying to score points. I so enjoyed a debate highlighted by The Wall Street Journal between the chief economists from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan that I highlighted it in the Newsworthy section of Sense on Cents. For those who don’t visit that section of my site, I am compelled to replay this debate here.

In the inimitable words of Michael Buffer, “let’s get ready to rumble” as Goldman, J.P. Morgan Economists Debate Shape of Recovery:

The recession might be over, but how goes the recovery?

We posed that question to two prominent Wall Street economists with two very different views of 2010. Bruce Kasman, chief economist at J.P. Morgan, sees the U.S. growing at about a 3.5% pace for most of next year. That appears optimistic compared to Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, who sees gross domestic product growth of 2% or so at the start of the year tapering off to just 1.5% by year-end.

The following is an edited transcript of their remarks during a recent conference call with The Wall Street Journal.

Looking ahead to 2010, what kind of recovery do you see? (more…)

Who Is Adam Storch and Is Mary Schapiro Really the Right Person to Head the SEC?

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 16th, 2009 11:22 AM |

You must be kidding me.

Our financial regulators, both the SEC and FINRA, certainly failed American investors. The structural failures of these regulators have been highlighted by their own internal reviews authored by David Kotz for the SEC and Charles Bowsher for FINRA.

Over and above the structural failures of these regulators, both the SEC and FINRA have major image problems. What is at the core of those image problems? The following:

> A strong perception that their relationships with Wall Street are far too cozy. Additionally, Uncle Sam has gotten slammed for the depth of relationships and number of hires specifically from Goldman Sachs.

> A strong perception of a general lack of experience throughout these organizations.

Against these widely held perceptions, I am left dumbstruck by news of a very senior hire by the SEC. The SEC announced this morning the hiring of Adam Storch as Chief Operating Officer for its Enforcement Division. I do not know Adam Storch nor would I besmirch his capabilities. That said, for SEC Head Mary Schapiro and SEC Director of Enforcement Robert Khuzami to hire Mr. Storch as COO within this division raises serious questions that deserve to be addressed. What are those questions?

1. If the SEC is in need of experienced people, how does a 29 year old fit that bill?

2. If Uncle Sam in general has been tainted by a perceived cozy relationship with Goldman Sachs, how is it that one of the first key senior hires at the SEC comes from Goldman Sachs?

Bloomberg sheds light on Mr. Storch’s hiring in writing, SEC Said to Hire Goldman’s Storch for Enforcement Job:

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission hired Adam Storch, a 29-year-old former employee in Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s business intelligence unit, as the enforcement division’s first chief operating officer, according to people familiar with the decision.

The COO, who started Oct. 13, has “a great deal of background” in technology and managing processes and the pace of work, Robert Khuzami, head of enforcement, said yesterday in Washington. Storch, who worked since 2004 in a unit at Goldman Sachs that reviewed contracts and transactions for signs of fraud, will be charged with making the unit more efficient. Storch, reached by telephone at the SEC, declined to comment.

I would ask Mr. Khuzami when five years became generally accepted as ‘a great deal’ of experience. What has Mr. Storch done to distinguish himself? His experience includes:

Storch holds degrees in accounting and finance from the State University of New York at Buffalo and studied at New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business. He has certifications in accounting, fraud examination and auditing.

Prior to joining Goldman Sachs, Storch was a senior analyst at accounting firm Deloitte & Touche and an intern at Neuberger Berman LLC, a New York-based asset management firm.

I could understand if Mr. Storch were hired as an examiner or perhaps even a senior examiner if he is particularly strong. But COO? Are you kidding?

A COO is not a rank and file examiner. A COO is one of the senior most individuals in any organization. I have a very hard time believing that Mr. Storch is the ABSOLUTE best candidate for this role. What does his hiring indicate about Mary Schapiro’s and Robert Khuzami’s understanding and appreciation of the SEC’s problems?

The question has been asked previously whether Mary Schapiro is the right person to run the SEC. With all due respect to Mr. Storch, his hiring should increase the intensity of those questioning Ms. Schapiro’s capabilities.

LD

Sense on Cents Economic Review: Red Light, Green Light

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 28th, 2009 11:09 AM |

We had some very interesting economic reports released this morning. The data and its interpretation provide serious “grist for the mill.” On that note, let’s sharpen the stone and get to work.

1. Durable Goods: rose 1.9% versus a consensus expectation of a rise of .5%. Much of the increase was due to strong orders in the automotive and defense industries. Green light, green shoot, call it what you want. This report is much stronger than expected, so get back in there and BUY, BUY, BUY. Actually, hold on . . . 

Do we expect to see growth in the automotive industry going forward? This industry is and will continue to be downsized. Do we think Barack is looking to grow our defense budget? Most assuredly not.

As much as market analysts, media mavens, and government officials are spinning this report in a very positive fashion, let’s dig deeper.

Last month’s Durable Goods Orders were revised lower from an initial reading of -.8% to -2.1%. Red light!! Additionally, given the volatile nature of orders in the transportation sector, economists look at Durable Goods excluding transportation. How did that do?

Wow!! Another green light. Durable Goods excluding transportation orders rose .8% versus an expectation of -.3%. Much stronger than expected. How about revisions to last month’s numbers? Uh-oh!! Last month this report reflected a decline of -.6% and this was revised to a -2.7%!!! Red light!!

So for those who think we’re making progress on this front, put it in the context of “take three steps back and two steps forward!!” (more…)

Goldman Sachs Tells Uncle Sam Go Away!!

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 25th, 2009 9:46 AM |

Like it or not, Goldman Sachs is widely considered to be the preeminent risk manager in the world. I would never blanketly endorse Goldman Sachs nor every one of their transactions or employees. Anything but. I am sure Goldman, like every institution in every industry, has some bad apples who will and have made some bad, if not outright illegal, moves. If so, the proper regulatory authorities should address, investigate, and if need be prosecute. I am here to write on a different topic. Goldman Sachs does not want Uncle Sam as a business partner. Whether Goldman wanted government money last Fall via the TARP (Troubled Asset Recovery Program) or not, the firm very clearly wants to return those funds soon.

Goldman Sachs is currently working with government officials to return $10 billion in TARP funds by late April. The firm will look to make this return after the U.S. Treasury completes its first round of bank stress tests. Other smaller banking institutions are looking to do the same. (more…)

Goldman and AIG

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 21st, 2009 5:49 AM |

There has been extensive speculation that Goldman Sachs unjustifiably benefited from the weakness at AIG over the last 6 months. While conspiracy theorists can and will have a field day with this story, at its core I think Goldman did what any well run firm should always do — protect its shareholders.

While the stock values of Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America flirted with total disaster, Goldman Sachs traded down but bottomed out at approximately $50 a share. That price does not strike me as indicative of a firm on the brink of bankruptcy. As Goldman now reveals, it had significant exposure to AIG but it also significantly hedged this exposure to AIG via other transactions. Thus, Goldman would have been negatively impacted by an AIG bankruptcy but not fatally impacted. (more…)

AIG and LTCM

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 18th, 2009 3:50 PM |

A precursor to the turmoil roiling our economy and markets today occurred on a smaller, but certainly very dramatic, scale in 1998. The meltdown of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management brought the market to its knees at the time. LTCM was effectively taken over by a consortium of Wall Street banks at the behest of New York Federal Reserve Chairman, William McDonough. The firms injected approximately $3 billion dollars in order to stabilize LTCM and then unwound it in an orderly fashion.

The lessons learned in the LTCM crisis were obviously not learned well enough because we are experiencing them again a multiple hundred fold. The centerpiece of our current fiasco is AIG (known here at Sense on Cents as “Ain’t It Great”).

The dramatic story of Long Term Capital Management is captured in a book I strongly recommend for anybody interested in the history of the financial markets. When Genius Failed, by Roger Lowenstein, is a great read and truly captures the intrigue, egos, and tension of that period. As the current turmoil unwinds I look forward to the books published on this period as well. (more…)






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