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HomeA ‘Graphic’ View of the U.S. Credit Collapse
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 14th, 2010 6:28 AM |
If a picture paints a thousand words, then the graphs I am highlighting today would encompass many volumes. I thank the regular reader of Sense on Cents who brought them to my attention. Major prop to Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture who ran this commentary yesterday. Major credit to the writer at the Global Macro Monitor blog.
The Global Macro Monitor blog was started by an independent trader and economist and, in a prior life, was a global macro hedge fund PM/trader, headed emerging market bond trading desks on Wall Street, and an economist/global strategist, beginning his career at the World Bank in the mid 1980’s. His unique and unconventional views are reflected on his website at marcromon.wordpress.com.
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We constructed these charts with data from today’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds. They are both stunning and frightening as they illustrate the cardiac arrest that took place in the credit markets. The collapse in credit issuance/borrowing began in 2008 and would have been net negative without the Federal government. In 2009, for example, the Federal government was 141 percent of total net credit borrowings. (more…)
Ben Bernanke’s “Hail Mary”
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 29th, 2010 11:12 AM |
Hail Mary passes are typically thrown late in a game in an attempt to clutch victory from the jaws of defeat. Ben Bernanke’s statement at the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference this past week is an indication that he is getting ready to throw his “Hail Mary.” The problem that I see, though, is that our ‘game’ is only somewhere in the second quarter.
Have you ever witnessed a football game where one team literally has to scrap its game plan because it finds itself in such a huge hole in the first quarter? That, my friends, is analogous to the state of the U.S. economy going into 2008. While we could debate whether the calls made by our coaching staff in Washington have helped or hurt our recovery, the fact is Ben and his fellow coaches have thrown everything and the kitchen sink at the economy and the results are anything but robust.
For a review of the game to date and the uncertain prognosis going forward, The New York Times’ Peter Goodman provides a wealth of ‘sense on cents’ in his fabulous and comprehensive commentary, (more…)
No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle Welcomes Rick Davis, Sunday Night at 8pm ET
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 27th, 2010 9:56 AM |
UPDATE: This episode of NQR’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle has concluded. You can listen to a recording of the episode in its entirety by clicking the play button on the audio player provided below. Once the audio begins, you can advance or rewind to any portion of the episode by clicking at any point along the play bar.
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If 70% of our economy is driven by the consumer, and Sense on Cents is trying to help people navigate the “economic” landscape, then prudence dictates we drill deeper into how the American consumer is doing during these challenging times.
What drives consumer behavior? How is the consumer adapting his/her personal spending habits? What triggers personal consumption? How can we source this information without being captive to the heavily massaged data provided by the government or industries with inherent bias? Well, if you are interested in learning more you have come to the right place as this Sunday evening from 8-9pm ET, No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle Welcomes Rick Davis.
Richard C. Davis is the founder and President of the Consumer Metrics Institute. The Consumer Metrics Institute grew out of Mr. Davis’ frustration with the lack of timeliness and poor quality of information available to individual investors about the consumer economy in the United States.
“It became clear to me that nearly all of the so-called ‘Leading Indicators’ available to individual investors were in fact no more timely or leading than last month’s account statements,” he says. (more…)
