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Posts Tagged ‘supply of global government bonds’

About Those Interest Rates

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 6th, 2009 9:49 AM |

A sharp move higher in interest rates has received a lot of attention lately. In fact, I now believe the focus on interest rates will move to center stage in our Brave New World of the Uncle Sam Economy. Allow me to comment.

I spent my entire career on Wall Street within the bond market, so my professional life has been consumed by interest rates. I don’t know if that is necessarily a good thing, but that’s for another day.

What are interest rates?
Very simply, the interest rate – for whatever financial product – is the “price of money.”

What are the components of interest rates for respective financial products?
Interest rates are determined by three factors:

1. a general level of rates of return in the economy and market: this level is typically viewed by focusing on the shorter maturity U.S. government securities. Uncle Sam is viewed as the benchmark from which all other interest rates are compared. Uncle Sam’s own creditworthiness is coming into question, but that can be a topic for a separate post.

2. a risk component: this factor addresses the creditworthiness of the borrower (be it a global government, a corporation, a municipality, or an individual).  Additionally, while most bonds focus on the risk component as being a function of creditworthiness, there are other risk factors as well, including prepayment risk for mortgages.

3. inflation/deflation: this factor addresses how fixed future returns on bonds are impacted by the general change of prices in the economy. The presence of inflation (a rising level of prices) erodes the value of fixed future returns. In a similar fashion, the presence of deflation (a declining level of prices) increases the value of fixed future returns.

Utilizing these three factors, one is prepared to more effectively understand the nature of interest rates, both from a static standpoint and in a dynamic environment.

Utilizing these components, how and why do interest rates change in a dynamic economy?

Let’s recall that the valuation of any financial product (a stock, bond, currency, commodity) is determined in a dynamic market setting by buyers and sellers assessing three variables:

1. fundamental analysis: from our trusty Investing primer (right sidebar), we see this variable defined as:

an investor can perform fundamental analysis on a bond’s value by looking at economic factors, such as interest rates and the overall state of the economy, and information about the bond issuer, such as potential changes in credit ratings.

2. technical analysis: again using our Investing primer:

A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security’s intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity.

3. market psychology: the Investing primer educates us on this variable as well:

The overall sentiment or feeling that the market is experiencing at any particular time. Greed, fear, expectations and circumstances are all factors that contribute to the group’s overall investing mentality or sentiment.

While conventional financial theory describes situations in which all the players in the market  behave rationally, not accounting for the emotional aspect of the market can sometimes lead to unexpected outcomes that can’t be predicted by simply looking at the fundamentals.

Utilizing these tools, let’s review the prevailing level of interest rates in our economy from a chart provided on a daily basis at the WSJ Market Data page linked here at Sense on Cents.

We can assess how all the short term interest rates have come down over the last three years in response to the recession. We are now faced, though, with a move higher in rates given the increased risks of inflation, along with massive demand by global governments, corporations, municipalities, and individuals for credit. That demand, like any demand, is driving the price of money (the interest rate) higher. Is this demand being generated by improvements in the economy, the need to refinance existing debt, or a combination of the two?

Welcome to the word of interest rate analysis for fixed income investments (bonds).

Please share your thoughts, questions and concerns so we can all most effectively navigate the economic landscape.

For more on this topic:

Is The Government Bond Bubble Getting Ready to Burst?
May 21, 2009

Mortgage Refi Activity Is Driving Rates Higher
May 26, 2009

The Wheels Have Come Off Barack’s Bond Bus
May 27, 2009

I will also address the dynamics driving interest rates extensively during my NQR Sense on Cents radio show Sunday evening June 7th from 8-9pm.

LD

P.S. If you like what you see here at Sense on Cents, please add the site to your favorites, share with your friends, and visit/comment often!! Thanks!!

Mortgage Refi Activity Is Driving Rates Higher

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 26th, 2009 7:17 PM |

In Wall Street terms, the wheels are coming off the Treasury bus. What does that mean in layman’s terms? Interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities are ratcheting higher. Why? I have addressed the massive supply of global government bonds that will be issued in order to finance the exploding deficits. For newer readers, you can find my thoughts on this topic in Is The Government Bond Bubble Getting Ready To Burst? UPDATE #2.

The dynamics of the massive supply of bond issuance to fund global deficits will not change. To wit, our market needs to absorb $60 billion in 5yr and 7yr notes tomorrow and Thursday.  Long term interest rates in our U.S. Treasury market moved higher by another 10 basis points again today to a level of 3.55%.

Over and above that, though, there is another significant reason that is driving our bond market lower and interest rates higher. This reason is receiving little to no attention by the media or market analysts. In fact, the color allocated to this factor is strictly viewed as a positive. I am talking about the waves of mortgage refinancing precipitated by the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program. 

How could refinancing activity further pressure the government bond market driving interest rates higher? Well, let’s accept the premise that any government program is never risk free or cost free. The quantitative easing employed by the Federal Reserve to purchase government and mortgage-backed securities has very real costs. The extraordinary volume of purchases of newly issued mortgage-backed securities by the Federal Reserve has allowed millions of homeowners to lower their mortgage payments. This is great for those benefitting. What are the costs? (more…)






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