Posted by Larry Doyle on May 17th, 2010 2:26 PM |
If manufacturing and industrial activity is supposedly picking up in the largest economy in the world, that being the United States, then why is the price of the base metal copper melting down?
Let’s look at a WSJ graph of copper for the last twelve months:
We can witness that copper rebounded strongly during 2009, given the global meltup in virtually every risk-based asset. Copper closed out 2009 at approximately $3.35/lb and then proceeded to melt down in January of this year when markets got hit. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 3rd, 2010 3:16 PM |
Just a quiet Wednesday in the markets?
Let’s see . . . major equity averages are flat to down .5% on the day, bonds have backed up 5 basis points but remain within the range, the dollar is doing a little better but not making a major move. Might be a good day to catch the early train home because nothing is going on? Not so fast . . . let’s look a little deeper because I think there is a major move afoot in a certain market segment. What would that be? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 30th, 2010 10:49 AM |
As January goes, so goes the year.
Does this adage hold water? The market direction for the year is correlated approximately 70% of the time with January’s move. I certainly would not make investment decisions based purely upon that rule of thumb. The rule did not hold in 2009 as major equity averages were down 8% last January. That said, 2009 was anything but a normal year given the massive economic and market supports implemented by Uncle Sam.
What rule of thumb would I recommend? Read and review Sense on Cents regularly to most effectively navigate the economic landscape. On that note, let’s review the market moves for January. The figures provided are month end statistics for the respective markets, then month-to-date and year-to-date returns. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 27th, 2010 12:25 PM |
Many eyes are focused on the grilling of Treasury Secretary Geithner on the Hill. Have we learned anything new? Not really. Geithner is maintaining that he and others within the New York Fed and the Federal Reserve operated within the best interests of the American taxpayer because they were working to save the system. Numerous Congressmen are drilling Geithner on his actions to pay creditors 100 cents on the dollar.
Having watched this debate this morning, in my opinion we will not receive any real clarity or clear cut winners. I do find it laughable that Geithner asserts that the Treasury has promoted unprecedented levels of transparency under his leadership. Neil Barofsky, head of SIGTARP, and Elizabeth Warren, the TARP watchdog, have highlighted the extensive lack of transparency by Treasury under Geithner. (more…)