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Posts Tagged ‘housing starts’

Housing Barometer Makes New Low

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 8th, 2011 7:09 AM |

How do we measure what is really going on within the housing market? Regularly we see reams of housing data from new home sales, housing starts, building permits, and the Case-Shiller Housing Index. What are we to make of these various indicators?

Is there a common denominator that can be derived and utilized to measure what is truly going on within our housing market? Thanks to our friends at 12th Street Capital for bringing to our attention just such a vehicle. Let’s navigate, but bring your boots because where we’re going here does not look very pretty. (more…)

Gaming Housing Statistics or Time Reveals Truth

Posted by Larry Doyle on November 18th, 2009 10:46 AM |

Time reveals truth.

I love that pearl of wisdom shared by Danielle Park, my guest this past Sunday evening on No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. I find it very applicable to the economic report released this morning on housing starts. What did that report indicate? Housing starts in October registered a supposed surprising decline of 10.6% to a seasonally adjusted 529, 000 annual rate.

Is this truly a surprise? Market analysts and government pundits who continually ‘oversell’ economic data as legitimate, when in fact that data is gamed via government props, need to show surprise when a report disappoints. If they do not act surprised, then they merely expose themselves and lose credibility.

The simple fact is the housing market in our country remains in decline. One merely needs to look at the continually increasing levels of delinquencies to understand that. I addressed this important data last May in writing, “The Most Critical Economic Statistic”:

Which economic statistic is the most important? Unemployment? Housing starts? Trade deficit? Inflation? Retail sales?

Well, they are all important . . . but as I review the many statistics, the economic data that I believe most significant are loan delinquencies. Now, mind you a delinquency does not mean that the loan has defaulted and been foreclosed upon. A delinquency is merely a late payment. Typically loans are classified as 30 day, 60 day, or 90 day delinquent. There is a very high correlation between delinquent loans and those that default. (more…)

St. Patrick Smiles on the Market!

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 17th, 2009 5:34 PM |

When trading bonds, I used a rule that Tuesday’s price action often reversed Monday’s. While that rule of trading was strictly a quirk based upon years of experience, I found it happen so regularly that I never discounted it. 

Supported by a surprisingly strong housing starts number (+22% to 583K) and a relatively mild increase in PPI (producer price index) of .1%, the market opened relatively flat today but firmed all day right into the close. The major stock market averages closed up 2.5%-4%!! (more…)

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