Subscribe: RSS Feed | Twitter | Facebook | Email
Home | Contact Us

Posts Tagged ‘CBO’

Questions of Fairness and Rectitude

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 8th, 2012 6:45 AM |

Stephen Moore wrote a commentary entitled A Fairness Quiz for the President in the Wall Street Journal yesterday which generated hundreds of comments. The comments seemed to break down largely along party lines. I think most of those commenting might not grasp the full picture.

With our nation in the midst of an increasingly confrontational political debate, I think it useful to promote serious questions of fairness and rectitude. In doing so, I would like to reference a fair bit of Mr. Moore’s commentary while passing over some of his more overtly political statements. Additionally, I include my own ‘sense on cents’ and add some of my own questions at the end. (more…)

Obama Playing ‘Four Corners’ Offense in Budgetball

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 20th, 2009 12:04 PM |

I thought Barack Obama liked basketball. Lovers of the game coerced the NCAA to utilize a 24-second clock in order to speed the game up, showcase players’ talents, and render the North Carolina ‘four corners’ offense ineffective. What was the basic premise of that offense? Stall tactics.

Well, welcome to the Brave New World of the Uncle Sam Economy where there is none other than President Obama working the budgetball around in true four corners fashion. The Associated Press reports White House Putting Off Budget Update:

The White House is being forced to acknowledge the wide gap between its once-upbeat predictions about the economy and today’s bleak landscape.

The administration’s annual midsummer budget update is sure to show higher deficits and unemployment and slower growth than projected in President Barack Obama’s budget in February and update in May, and that could complicate his efforts to get his signature health care and global-warming proposals through Congress.

The release of the update – usually scheduled for mid-July – has been put off until the middle of next month, giving rise to speculation the White House is delaying the bad news at least until Congress leaves town Aug. 7 on its summer recess.

Who is playing ball with Barack? Tim Geithner, Peter Orszag, Larry Summers, and Austan Goolsbee, along with every other member of his administration. No surprise. The question begs, though, who is playing defense to expose this purely partisan political stall tactic? (more…)

GDP Projections from IMF, CBO, OMB

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 8th, 2009 12:05 PM |

For those not familiar with the acronyms of the organizations referenced in the title of this post:

IMF: International Monetary Fund
CBO: Congressional Budget Office
OMB: Office of Management and Budget, which operates within the White House

This morning the IMF released their updated Global Economic Prospects.

I will share with you the projected growth rates for the United States against those provided by the CBO and OMB.  I will then provide some comparative analysis.

United States
IMF      -2.6% (2009)    .8% (2010)
CBO     -3.0% (2009)  2.9% (2010)
OMB    -1.2% (2009)  3.2% (2010)

The figures provided by CBO and OMB were projections from the 1st quarter 2009. As you can see, the White House projections forecasted by the OMB are wildly optimistic both for this year and next relative to the IMF and CBO.

Those projections play directly into projected tax revenues and then, in turn, to the level of the federal deficit. If the IMF’s current projections are anywhere close to being accurate, our deficit will be significantly worse than previously forecast. What does that mean?

HIGHER TAXES ACROSS THE BOARD!!! What happens then?

SLOWER GROWTH GOING FORWARD!!!

In regard to the rest of the globe, the IMF’s projected numbers speak volumes:

China 7.5% (2009)   8.5% (2010)

Euro Area -4.8% (2009)    -.3% (2010)

Japan -6.0% (2009)     1.7% (2010)

India 5.4% (2009)     6.5% (2010)

Emerging/Developing    1.5% (2009)     4.7% (2010)
Economies

Advanced Economies -3.8% (2009)        .6% (2010)

Global -1.4%  (2009)      2.5% (2010)

Bloomberg provides a review of the IMF report, IMF Sees Stronger Global Rebound From ’09 Recession. I would question the accuracy of Bloomberg’s title. I see a wide divergence between growth prospects in the BRIC nations and emerging markets from those of the advanced economies, especially with Europe and the United States. Bloomberg reports:

Still, risks to the outlook, which have “diminished noticeably,” are still “tilted to the downside,” the fund said, citing a possible downward pressure on asset prices resulting from rising unemployment, pressure on bond yields from concerns on public debt, and emerging economies’ vulnerability to financial stress.

A larger-than-expected drop in risk aversion and stronger demand in emerging economies could offer “some upside risk” that boosts growth, according to the fund.

In a separate report today on the state of the global financial system, the IMF said that while financial markets and confidence in an economic recovery have improved since April, risks remain and policy makers must remain vigilant until a sustained recovery is under way. Credit risks are high, bank lending to the private sector is slowing and the recovery so far has been dependent primarily on public funds, the fund said in an update to its Global Financial Stability Report.

Can the emerging economies of the world pull the developed countries out of the ditch? Will the global economies decouple? Is there any surprise why countries are pursuing protectionist measures?

In regard to the United States, President Obama may want to have the members of his economic team, including Secretary Geithner, Larry Summers, and Peter Orszag, call John Lipsky at the IMF and ask him what he sees.

Risks remain extraordinarily high.

LD






Recent Posts


ECONOMIC ALL-STARS


Archives