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Mary Meeker Audits USA, Inc. Recommended

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 9th, 2011 9:39 AM |

In the course of a conversation yesterday with one of the wisest men I know, I remarked that the issues our nation faces are not political but rather mathematical.

The debate in Washington that put a choke hold on our nation, our economy, and our markets took partisan bickering to an entirely new level and focused on the politics.

In the true spirit of ‘sense on cents’ let’s focus on the numbers and reduce our issues and our problems into simple math. In the process, I hope we are all more educated as to the depths of our problems so we can then begin to address them.

I thank a dear friend who brought a recent fabulous presentation by Kleiner Perkins’ Mary Meeker to my attention.  Read the rest »


August 8 Market Commentary: America’s Margin Call

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 8th, 2011 7:59 PM |

That was not a lot of fun.

The 6% selloff in the market we witnessed today is obviously tremendously unnerving.

Professional traders and active managers who monitor market moves on a minute by minute basis will have their their own opinions as to what did happen and what will happen.

For those in the audience who appreciate and embrace the true spirit of ‘sense on cents’, while we listen to the spin provided by market mavens, esteemed economists, political pundits, and Washington wizards, let us not lose sight of the real fundamental issues which remain at the core of our American foundation. Read the rest »


Further Thoughts on S&P’s Downgrade of USA

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 8th, 2011 7:44 AM |

The sun did come up here on the east coast this morning. That is a very good thing. Life does go on.

Our fiscal life goes on as well. In many respects it is little changed but in others it is very much changed and will not soon be restored. As the emotions of many inside and outside of the markets are frayed as a result of S&P’s downgrade of the USA, let us keep our heads and maintain our ‘sense on cents‘ approach.

On that note, what are three questions I see many asking and how would I respond to them? Read the rest »


Breaking News: S&P Downgrades United States

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 5th, 2011 7:55 PM |

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Standard & Poors has just downgraded the credit rating of the United States from a AAA rating.

This is a HUUUUGE story. What do I see as the implications?

1. Short term lending markets will get tighter and activity will likely decline as the quality of what had been the highest quality collateral, US Treasury debt, is now downgraded.

These short term lending markets, also known as the repo market, are the liquidity in our financial markets’ engine. As the liquidity lessens and the cost of doing business increases, overall activity in the markets will be negatively impacted.

2. Other entities which had owned and used US Treasury debt for collateral purposes will be negatively impacted by the higher costs of holding lower quality debt. Other entities which were closely aligned with the US Treasury, such as Freddie and Fannie, will also be negatively impacted in terms of higher borrowing costs.   Read the rest »


Unemployment Report August 5, 2011: Discouraging

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 5th, 2011 9:13 AM |

The big exhale you may have just heard emanating from Washington follows a slightly better than expected unemployment report this morning.

I am happy to hear that the report is slightly better than expected and will address the particulars momentarily. I caution people not to make too much of this report, though. Why?

While the report may have exceeded expectations, let’s not lose sight of the fact that the expectations were not all that high at the outset.

Additionally, this report is backward looking. What have we seen and heard from a wide array of companies recently? Indications of further layoffs.

Those with a measure of ‘sense on cents‘ do not take reports on face value. Let’s dig a little deeper. Read the rest »


What Caused the Market Meltdown?

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 4th, 2011 5:08 PM |

“Everybody out of the pool” and “Adult Swim Only” are phrases that ring in my ear from my trading days at Bear Stearns. A long lost friend (God bless you, buddy!!) would bellow those statements when markets plunged like today.

What has recently drained the liquidity and lowered the water level in our equity market ‘pool’?

A number of critically important factors have been building and continue to haunt us.These include:

1. Meltdown in European sovereign debt. This is not and should not be a surprise. The meltdown was merely a matter of time. The outstanding question remains the depth and breadth of the meltdown. Stay tuned as risks remain very high.

2. The dysfunction in Washington truly displayed how screwed up our political dynamic is while shedding light on the enormity of our national debt and deficit. This reality is not changing anytime soon. Stay tuned as risks remain very high.

Read the rest »


Very Disturbing UPDATE: Student Loan Bubble and Seeking Arrangements

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 4th, 2011 7:11 AM |

I have a soft spot for those within our society whom I believe are preyed upon and ultimately victimized by the perils and pitfalls of modern day finance.

I fully appreciate that people need to be held responsible for their personal behaviors and decisions, but we need to acknowledge that the tangled financial web that our nation has woven has placed many members of our society in untenable positions.

The story I address today is perhaps one of the saddest I have encountered since launching Sense on Cents in early 2009.  Read the rest »


The Recession Never Truly Ended

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 3rd, 2011 8:19 AM |

A wide array of supposedly smart people are now informing us that the economy is slowing and may slip back into recession. The new phrase being used to describe our economic condition is ‘stall speed’.

Well how about that? Stall speed, they say. Is the economy truly slowing? Is it really?

Or perhaps did the real economy, that is the one in which we live and operate—not the one fabricated by Wall Street pundits and Washington politicians—never truly rebound?

I ask because I firmly believe that our domestic economy never truly rebounded in a meaningful fashion over the last few years.

I cautioned people to avoid the regular smoke and mirrors emanating from our financial and political hotbeds in spring 2010, and have continued to caution since, when I first equated our economic malady as akin to “walking pneumonia“.>>>>>>>> Read the rest »


Auction-Rate Securities Update: Discovery in Merrill/Maui Case is Explosive!!

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 2nd, 2011 8:17 AM |

Information is everything. The appropriate use of information can be particularly powerful if not explosive.

Whether in the canyons of Wall Street, the halls of Capitol Hill, or in the most distant regions of our great nation, the value and use of timely information is critical in determining the truth as to 1. what did people know 2. when did they know it, and 3. what did they do with it?

The legal process known as discovery is critical to elevating our Sense on Cents virtues of truth, transparency, and integrity. What is discovery?  Read the rest »


Debt Deal, Our ‘Walking Pneumonia’ Economy, QE3 and More ‘Sense on Cents’

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 1st, 2011 7:40 AM |

What now? What lies ahead on the challenging and winding road filled with clouds and great unknowns that defines our American economic landscape?

The political circus in Washington has clearly taken center stage over the last few weeks. Watching this show has been anything but entertaining and don’t think the theatrics do not harm our economy. They do.

Uncertainty breeds risk aversion and our economy needs people and businesses willing to take risks.

Can we assume that the passage of a bipartisan debt package means we can get back to business as usual and that the economy will rebound? Not so fast. Read the rest »


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Larry Doyle

Larry Doyle A Wall Street veteran's views and instincts on the markets, economy, and all things financial.







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