Sense on Cents

Larry Doyle’s “Dollars and Sense” on No Quarter Radio

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 15th, 2009 1:23 PM |

Please join me this evening from 8-9pm on No Quarter Radio for LD’s Dollars and Sense. These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere!

What did we learn this week in the markets? Equities, bonds, currencies, hedge funds, commodities. There is a lot going on across all these sectors. What do the week’s moves indicate about the economy as well as about Washington?

What does the market think about the stimulus plan? What does it mean for the economy?

How about Secretary Geithner? What does the market think about his newly designated Financial Stabilty Plan? What does the market think about him and the Obama administration’s first few weeks? Read the rest »

Comments (0)

Cheaters Never Win

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 12th, 2009 7:34 PM |

While our country has had high profile cheats such as Bernie Madoff, Barry Bonds, and the crowd from Enron amongst MANY others, we have other cheats permeating our lives every day. Tim Geithner offered that “he screwed up” on his taxes and Alex Rodriguez claimed that he was young and naive from 2001-2003 when he took steroids. In my opinion, I believe both of these individuals are representative of a society that has become far too lax in tolerating a lack of decency and integrity. This is not good business!!

In the midst of the current economic turmoil, we all want to look for individuals, groups, parties, and/or industries that are culpable and direct our indignation towards them. While we may gain some sort of short term gratification, are we changing the nature of the dialogue and in turn the course of our country? I think not.

The opportunity for the “silent majority” within the American public to voice their opinion, promote real core values of decency and accountability, and “lead” our country has never been greater. Read the rest »

Comments (0)

Let’s Question the Bank CEOs

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 11th, 2009 9:27 AM |

This morning at 10am, the CEOs of the major money center banks in our country will be in Washington to face Congressional heat. Watch it LIVE on C-Span3.

cspan-bank-logos

These CEOs are easy targets for plenty of reasons. As a precursor to their testimony, I thought it may be helpful to view a 1-minute clip of Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, commenting on the proposed stimulus plan, the state of the banking industry, and the concept of nationalizing the banking industry.

If I were questioning these CEOs, I would want to ask the following:

1. To all the CEOs, how do you justify paying $18+ billion in year end bonuses after having taken more than $150+ billion in government funding?

2. Why shouldn’t Citi be formally nationalized right now given the market’s belief that if positions were marked to market properly that the institution would be insolvent?

3. How do you justify the egregious process of raising rates on credit card lines for consumers who are not delinquent?

Read the rest »

Comments (0)

One MASSIVE Margin Call

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 10th, 2009 3:46 PM |

In light of the serious economic crisis facing our country and the world today, there is understandably heightened interest and anticipation towards both the proposed Stimulus Plan and the newly designated Financial Stability Plan. Clearly every individual in our country is impacted by this turmoil and we are hopeful that our leaders in both the private and public sectors can display the real leadership necessary to “right the ship.” Let’s provide a concise review of the newly designated Financial Stability Plan proposed today by Secretary Geithner. I’ll then move toward a further review of our economy and what it means for us going forward.

Financial Stability Plan
Secretary Geithner prefaced his remarks by highlighting that this process will “take time to resolve.” He offered that there is plenty of blame to go around to the public and private sectors, including the regulatory and rating agencies. He acknowledged that public distrust has heightened in the process. While he believes the government is being appropriately aggressive with this plan, I do not share that opinion. I commend him for emphatically stating that there will be total transparency in the process, along with strong contingencies for any entities that borrow public funds. All details will be posted on www.financialstability.gov.

While Geithner did lay out the overview of the plan, he did not extensively provide details. The market has sold off 3% in the process. I believe the market also sold off given the realization that this plan is going to take a LONG time to make a real impact. Let’s get to the meat of the plan: Read the rest »

Comments (2)

An $800 Billion Mistake

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 7th, 2009 4:40 PM |

Martin Feldstein The American populace knows that the primary architects in the formulation of the Stimulus Plan working its way through Congress are Rahm Emanuel, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid. This contingent, along with President Obama, have not been bashful in stating they view the November election results as effectively a mandate to change policies emanating from Washington. Against that backdrop, the initially proposed Stimulus Plan was so loaded with pork that the Republicans and the American population at large slammed it as more a promotion of the Democratic agenda than a true stimulus plan.

I will give President Obama credit for formulating a Panel to Advise Obama on Economy. This panel will be known as the White House Economic Recovery Advisory Board. The Board will be headed by former Fed chair Paul Volcker. He will be joined by Jeff Immelt of GE, James Owens of Caterpillar, William Donaldson, former SEC chair, Roger Ferguson Jr. of TIAA-CREF, Richard Trumka of AFL-CIO, Anna Burger of SEIU, and Martin Feldstein, renowned Harvard economist. The group will be guided by Austan Goolsbee, an economic adviser to the White House.

Do you think President Obama and his economic team would listen to Mr. Feldstein or is that a “mere courtesy” having him on the board. Let’s review what Mr. Feldstein said about the Stimulus Plan just last week.

Read the rest »

Comments (0)

Markopolos vs. SEC: Red Flags All Over The Field

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 6th, 2009 5:30 AM |

The world of professional sports has adapted to the wonders of modern technology over the course of the last ten to fifteen years. Professional hockey and basketball have used video reviews for a while. football-field114 Professional and college football have more recently utilized video reviews to “get the calls right.” Major league baseball only last year accepted the fact that it is a better game when certain key plays are ruled properly. Few if any lovers of the games do not fully appreciate the benefits of this review process. If our country were only so fortunate that the powers that be at the Securities and Exchange Commission had an equal appreciation for a series of red flags requesting a similar review.

On November 7, 2005 Harry Markopolos threw 29 red flags on the field for the purposes of reviewing Bernard Madoff Investment Securities. The fact that the SEC did not more fully investigate given this OVERWHELMING body of evidence leaves any individual of sound mind and body speechless and dumbfounded. The questions that need to be answered are whether “the reviewers in the box along with the referees on the field” at both the SEC and FINRA were in some way conflicted. Did they have a stake in the game being played? Were there other kinds of action going on away from the field of play that need equal review?

The MSM has given Mr. Markopolos’ tireless work and pursuit of the truth in this fraud a less than thorough review. To be perfectly frank, I am shocked and appalled that we have not seen greater focus on this story. I was sent a copy of Mr. Markopolos’ November 7, 2005 Submission to the SEC and reviewed it today. This submisson is a matter of public record. While I could write at length on the evidence presented, I will do my best to summarize and highlight items that may not have received as much public disclosure as others.

Read the rest »

Comments (2)

Midday Market Update

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 5th, 2009 3:01 PM |

After the Initial Jobless Claims report this morning came in decidely weaker than expected, the equity markets sold off and bonds rallied.

As the day has worn on, those moves have reversed. Let’s provide an update and some commentary:

Stocks
Most sectors of the stock market are now up 1.5-2% on the day. I am honestly not reading anything into these moves. I believe this move upward is nothing more than a squaring of positions in front of tomorrow’s highly anticipated January Employment Report.

Bonds
This sector of the market is facing enormous supply next week so any move upward will likely bring in sellers to set up for that supply. Currently, the 10yr treasury yields 2.9%. That rate is up significantly over the last month, but close to unchanged on the day.

Currencies
The dollar is doing a touch better versus the Japanese Yen and is marking time versus the Euro. Again, I view this movement as more a squaring of positions than a key turnaround in dollar weakness versuss yen strength.

Industry Groups
Much like the overall sectors, specific groups which have underperformed (consumer finance, life insurance, retailers) are doing better today, while precious metals are underperforming.

The price action across all sectors is consistent. Traders are squaring positions and mitigating risk in front of the employment report tomorrow.

Comments (0)

Reason for Optimism . . . Not So Fast!

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 5th, 2009 12:53 PM |

Last week I wrote the prospects for the implementation of a “bad” bank (I designated it Bank Transition) seemed to be increasingly likely. My post, Reason For Optimism, highlighted the fact that a Bank Transition would facilitate the clearing of toxic assets from bank balance sheets. In so doing, the “transitioning” process should promote an environment in which banks can feel more comfortable lending to qualified borrowers. An update on this “Bad Bank” concept started to break yesterday. Regrettably, the government and banks can not seem to agree conceptually on the necessary steps to launch this bank.

In lieu of a bad bank, the main initiative now being proposed is the concept of the government “guaranteeing” the losses on these assets from a certain point. I view this approach in a less positive light. I believe strongly that this insurance approach is the equivalent to the Japanese style approach used in their banking crisis of the early 90s. Instead of recognizing losses to a certain point and then transferring them, the insurance approach puts a much greater emphasis on “buying time” to generate revenues as a means of increasing capital within the system.

Buying time strikes me as prolonging the period of lower growth and lessened opportunities.

We will see what comes out of Washington on these topics, but if in fact this is the primary approach for addressing toxic assets, I no longer have that “reason for optimism.”

Comments (0)

What Really Happened with Merrill and B of A

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 5th, 2009 8:24 AM |

A fascinating look behind the scenes as to what really happened. Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America, went from serving the best interests of his country to being pressured by Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson to complete the deal. Here’s an excerpt:

Messrs. Paulson and Bernanke forcefully urged Mr. Lewis not to walk away, praising the bank’s earlier cooperation — but warning that abandoning the deal would be a death sentence for Merrill. They said the move also could undercut confidence in Bank of America, both in the markets and among government officials. Despite the blunt talk, Bank of America executives interpreted the comments as a signal that the government was willing to work out a compromise.

This deal is reflective of the fact that the world of global finance is in uncharted waters.

In Merrill Deal, U.S. Played Hardball
by Dan Fitzpatrick, Susanne Craig and Deborah Solomon
The Wall Street Journal; February 5, 2009

Comments (2)

Stimulus Bill . . . Where’s the Accountability?

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 4th, 2009 4:31 PM |

I fully appreciate the dire circumstances of our current economic times. I am fully supportive of promoting programs that help those who are unemployed, losing their shelter, healthcare, and basic necessities. In times of crisis, Americans need to take care of our fellow citizens. History has proven we need bold moves and strong leadership. In the face of these needs, the politicians in Washington who crafted the economic stimulus plan loaded it up with so much pork that it is more in the camp of “feeding from the trough” than providing critically important stimulus.

We had written previously that we were concerned this bill would be more a promotion of the Democratic agenda than a focus on judiciously allocating capital to generate the greatest immediate impact and laying the foundation for real long term sustainability. Leave it to the base elements of our political process to start from a bad spot and work towards something acceptable than displaying real statesmanship right from the outset.

Who understands this? The American people understand and are voicing their opinions en masse to their elected officials. The pols are hearing them and representatives on both sides of the aisle are working to refine this piece of legislation. A lot of the “fat” in this bill must come out. Why can’t we get a public accounting of the politicians who include the different requests for shameless funding?

Why is it that virtually every economist I have read has repudiated the structure of this bill. Where’s the leadership? I am fully supportive of funding programs that will address real needs and pay long term dividends. In regard to water parks, Hollywood film production tax cuts, STDs, and the like, what country is this? Who proposed these programs? While Obama continues to defend this stimulus plan, the American populace is rallying for significant changes.

Comments (0)

« Newer Posts — Older Posts »