Sense on Cents

Dianne Feinstein Exposes Herself Under the TARP

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 28th, 2009 3:30 PM |

Senators Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME) proposed legislation earlier this year to create transparency in the distribution and use of TARP funds. From Feinstein’s own website:

Senators Feinstein and Snowe are the authors of bipartisan legislation, called the Troubled Asset Relief Program Transparency Reporting Act, which would promote transparency and establish strict accountability standards for firms receiving TARP funds. The bill was originally introduced during the 110th Congress on November 20, 2008, and was reintroduced with a new bill title for the 111th Congress on January 6, 2009.

“American taxpayers put hundreds of billions of dollars on the line to rescue financial institutions, but we still don’t know how this money is being spent,” said Senator Feinstein. “This lack of transparency is simply unacceptable. Taxpayers deserve better, and the time has come to restore confidence in this unprecedented effort. Clear restrictions must be imposed on firms receiving assistance. These include tougher reporting requirements, lobbying prohibitions, and a ban on lavish and unnecessary expenditures.” Read the rest »

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Did Big Ben Bernanke and Heavy Hank Paulson Break The Law in Buying Ken Lewis’ Silence?

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 28th, 2009 12:15 PM |

The intrigue involved in Bank of America’s takeover of Merrill Lynch goes well beyond standard Wall Street negotiations. Did Fed chair Ben Bernanke and then Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson break the law in the process of pressuring BofA CEO Ken Lewis to complete this bank merger? Bloomberg’s Jonathan Weil has easily distinguished himself amongst all journalists in aggressively addressing this topic. Weil pulls no punches in writing One Nation, Under Banks With Justice For No One.

Lewis, as CEO of Bank of America, possessed material non-public information about Merrill Lynch and was obligated by law to release that information to his shareholders. Lewis unequivocally maintains Bernanke and Paulson pressured him not to release that information which would have potentially derailed the merger. Why didn’t Lewis get Bernanke’s and Paulson’s position in writing? Did Lewis ask for it in writing? Did Paulson and Bernanke knowingly avoid a legal quagmire by not contractually committing in writing to increased government support for Lewis’ acquiescence?

Weil provides a clear expose of this situation. I commend him! He writes:

The spectacle of Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson running roughshod over Kenneth Lewis and his minions at Bank of America Corp. raises a pivotal question for all Americans: Is the U.S. a nation of laws, or a nation of banks?

Let’s start by examining the facts disclosed last week in a letter by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo while taking pains to present the actions of each player in this drama in the fairest possible light. Read the rest »

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Low Tide Will Reveal Rats Scurrying Amidst The Garbage

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 28th, 2009 9:09 AM |

Every exterminator will tell you that he never finds just one rat. Bernie Madoff has been exposed as an enormous rodent. Is Allen Stanford also a rat? Who else may be in the pack? Mary Schapiro, head of the SEC, revealed yesterday that the SEC is reviewing 150 other hedge funds to determine whether they also operated Ponzi schemes. Reuters reports, U.S. SEC Has About 150 Hedge Fund Probes.

Hedge funds are currently unregulated. How could the SEC have found potentially another 150 “rats” in the space of a mere three months since Ms. Schapiro has been on the job? My instincts lead me to believe the following:

1. Ms. Schapiro is trying to convey a sense of leadership and progress on fraud investigations after the abysmal performance on the Madoff scheme. The SEC needs to burnish its image and Ms. Schapiro is trying to address that with this news release.

2. I have no doubt that many other hedge funds did operate as Ponzi schemes and likely had money invested in Madoff knowing he was the largest rat. As investigators from the SEC have reviewed the list of Madoff investors, the info there has likely led to other hedge fund frauds.

Additionally, do not forget that many hedge funds suspended redemptions in the latter half of 2008. Ponzi schemes, like rats, only thrive given a steady source of food and water in the form new investments. Suspending redemptions is akin to a rat rationing its food supply. While plenty of those suspensions could be legitimate, it would be naive to think that all of them are.

3. We know that FINRA, the self-regulatory organization overseeing Wall Street, had investments in hedge funds, fund of funds, and private equity. That info was provided in the FINRA 2007 Annual Report. We are STILL waiting for the release of the FINRA 2008 Annual Report. Could FINRA have invested in Madoff? Could FINRA have invested in other hedge fund Ponzi schemes? Why by April 28th has FINRA still not released their Annual Report? Read the rest »

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Markets Catch the Flu, Down 2% Overnight

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 28th, 2009 6:48 AM |

The global equity markets are down approximately 2% overnight for a variety of reasons, including:

1. Citi and BofA will likely be forced by regulators to raise more capital. Company shares are down 7-8% on this news. It also seems likely that regulators will force changes on the boards of these companies. Do not be surprised to see management changes as well. Has Ken Lewis become a government liability based upon his assertion of being pressured by Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke to complete the BofA-Merrill Lynch merger?

Is this story of increased capital needs really news? I don’t think so.

On the regional bank front . . . Suntrust, Regions Financial, and KeyCorp are speculated to need increased capital.

When it is widely accepted that our domestic banking system still has $750 billion to $1 trillion in embedded losses, it can’t be the case that all the banks are fine. In my opinion, Geithner did investors a disservice last week in promoting the overall health of the banking industry.

Bloomberg provides more insight: Citigroup, Bank of America Decline on Capital Report.

2. Markets are also down based upon some weak earnings news, increased loan loss provisions at NAB (National Australia Bank), and price declines in commodities due to the impact of the swine flu outbreak.

In my opinion, the markets and investors have gotten somewhat complacent given the rally in equities since early March. I still view risks as very high. It is growing increasingly likely that we will have a meaningful government presence as equity holders in some critical industries for a protracted period. This development will not only occur in the United States but in many regions globally. The impact of this government presence will effect not only specific companies but, in turn, industries as a whole. Read the rest »

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Is Uncle Sam Getting in the Automotive Business?

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 27th, 2009 4:17 PM |

The proposal made by General Motors to its bondholders today for a debt to equity swap, in my opinion, virtually guarantees a bankruptcy proceeding.

Based on the proposal put forth by GM (and you know they are working in lock step with the government task force headed by Steve Rattner), Uncle Sam and the UAW will have an 89% equity stake in the company while the bondholders would be paid 38 cents on the dollar for an 11% stake in the company. The bonds of GM have been trading in the vicinity of 15 cents on the dollar so the bondholders are receiving a premium, but for a heavily diluted equity stake.

In addition to the financial proposal, GM is putting forth plans for more layoffs, plant closings, and discontinuing the Pontiac brand.

While various constituencies within General Motors along with creditors and the UAW may debate the relative merits of the proposal, ultimately this company will be a government owned and managed enterprise. The FT provides clear analysis, U.S. To Take Majority GM Stake.

The automotive situation again highlights the predicament of measuring government intentions for those looking to invest in the markets. That predicament rests in the conundrum of standard return on capital versus promoting an administration’s social program.

While the FT may report,

“The Treasury has not demonstrated any interest in actually running the company. They want to make sure the company runs well for the shareholders and various constituencies”.

The fact remains, it is highly likely that Uncle Sam will in fact be the largest shareholder and will influence the manner in which GM operates.

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How Would You Like to Earn -5% On Cash Deposits?

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 27th, 2009 1:12 PM |

Can you imagine putting money into a bank and agreeing to accept a minus 5% rate of interest? Well, the Federal Reserve believes the appropriate rate of interest for this economy is in fact -5%. The FT reports, “Fed Study Puts Ideal U.S. Interest Rate at -5%.”

The world is awash in a sea of debt. The debt is piled highest in Europe on a relative basis while in actual terms the debt in the United States outpaces all other parts of the world. As the deleveraging process continues, the demand for new money to spur growth is anemic. The paradox of thrift (excessive savings inhibits growth) is keeping our economy in a state of stagnation. The Fed and U.S. Treasury are utilizing all tools in their box to restructure debt and promote lending without risking default. Ultimately, all the Fed and Treasury programs will devalue the debt via inflation. Inflation, in which future dollars are worth less than current dollars, is akin to paying a negative rate of interest on money. Read the rest »

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Summers and Jarrett Provide Hints of What Is To Come

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 27th, 2009 8:57 AM |

Larry Summers threw some cold water on the economy yesterday morning in stating his belief the economy will continue to decline for some time to come. Specifically,

“I expect the economy will continue to decline,” with “sharp declines in employment for quite some time this year,” Summers said today on “Fox News Sunday.”

Is Summers positioning the administration for a forecast more in line with IMF projections than the Congressional Budget Office? Recall that the IMF believes the U.S. economy will have flat to only slightly positive growth in 2010 with a double digit unemployment rate. Those projections are decidedly weaker than projections previously employed by the administration.

Is Summers starting to manage expectations downward given what he sees on the horizon? I believe so.

Furthermore, Valerie Jarrett, senior economic advisor, offered hints of administration plans for our banking system this weekend, in stating:

“Whether management changes occur, whether banks are asked to raise more capital, all of that’s going to come forth in the coming week,” Jarrett said on CNN’s “State of the Union” program today.

My instincts tell me that an advisor in Jarrett’s position releases that statement in preparation for exactly those moves. Will this be Vikram Pandit’s last week at Citigroup? Will Ken Lewis be forced out at Bank of America? I think the odds for either of those moves – if not both – just increased.

Management of any organization, including the White House, needs to maintain credibility by providing a reasonably accurate flow of information. The Sunday morning talk shows provide a forum and I think Summers and Jarrett provided solid hints at what is to come from the White House in the days and months ahead. Bloomberg provides a full summary of these points and others, Summers Says U.S. Economy to Decline ‘For Some Time.’

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Tune in Sunday Evening to NoQuarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 26th, 2009 9:25 PM |

UPDATE: The show has concluded, but you can listen to it in its entirety by clicking on the Play button on the audio player below. Once the playback has started, you can fast forward or rewind to any portion of the show by clicking at any point along the play bar.

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Please join me Sunday evening from 8-9 p.m. ET for NoQuarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. The developments in the markets, economy, global finance, Wall Street, and Washington are occurring at breakneck speed. I will try to slow things down a bit and provide a sense of perspective. What did we learn in the markets over the last week and what does that mean for the weeks and months ahead? We will address a wide range of issues, including: Hank Paulson blindsiding Ken Lewis, 1st quarter earnings (their transparency and quality), market performance this week, month, and year to date, the outlook for our financial regulatory structure, and upcoming bank stress test results.

These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere! What is on your mind? What would you like to address? Please share your questions and thoughts by calling in to (347) 677-0792, and also join our live chat room, which I’ll start up about 10 minutes before the show begins.

Many thanks to Larry Johnson and the rest of the team at NoQuarterUSA blog for providing such a vibrant vehicle as NoQuarter Radio. I look forward to having you join me Sunday evening as we collectively navigate the economic landscape!!

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Don’t Be Downwind From Barney Frank

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 26th, 2009 9:04 AM |

Barney Frank may try to rewrite his Congressional record on housing finance, but he will forever be linked to supporting the activities of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae which drove irresponsible sub-prime lending. A review of a WSJ article, What They Said About Fan and Fred, is truly damning. I strongly recommend your reading it. Who can ever forget back in 2003 Barney Frank stating in Congressional testimony addressing Freddie and Fannie specifically and housing finance:

House Financial Services Committee hearing, Sept. 10, 2003:

Rep. Barney Frank (D., Mass.): I worry, frankly, that there’s a tension here. The more people, in my judgment, exaggerate a threat of safety and soundness, the more people conjure up the possibility of serious financial losses to the Treasury, which I do not see. I think we see entities that are fundamentally sound financially and withstand some of the disaster scenarios. . . .

Tension? Threat of safety and soundness? Financial losses? Fundamentally sound? Disaster scenarios? With a “watchdog” like Barney is there really any surprise how and why Freddie and Fannie were plundered by their own executives and the sub-prime lending industry? It is not a stretch in stating that Barney had the welcome mat out and held the door open.

I am not stating that Barney was directly complicit in the fraudulent sub-prime lending, but he certainly defines naivete and incompetence on this front. His Democratic sidekicks – Dodd, Schumer, and Waters -were complicit and also drinking from the same punch bowl.

What about Barney’s comment regarding oversight of Freddie and Fannie:

House Financial Services Committee hearing, Sept. 25, 2003:

Rep. Frank: I do think I do not want the same kind of focus on safety and soundness that we have in OCC [Office of the Comptroller of the Currency] and OTS [Office of Thrift Supervision]. I want to roll the dice a little bit more in this situation towards subsidized housing. . . .

Again in 2005, Barney continued to stand his ground on the housing front despite rampant signs at that point of irresponsible lending and incipient fraud:

Well now that Barney and our entire country have “crapped out” on his roll of the dice, Barney decides homeownership may not be the best thing for all concerned. In a height of pandering well beyond the Washington norm, Barney offers the following in this excerpt from an interview on the Tavis Smiley show on PBS on April 20, 2009:

Is there any doubt that the burgeoning wind power industry in our country should engage Barney as their spokesperson? In so doing, Barney’s hot air may actually become a source of revenue for our great country rather than such an enormous expense.

Barney’s hot air should come with a warning, though, “Don’t Be Downwind!!”

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Which Way Is the Wind Blowing?

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 25th, 2009 1:24 PM |

Barack Obama strikes me as an individual who views popularity as necessary while principles are convenient. I see this in his engagement with the American public, the international audience, and political constituencies. While the strong liberal Democratic leadership is not only setting policy and writing legislation, Obama and team are working to appease a large percentage of the audience at home and abroad.

If one is trying to be all things to many people, ultimately an individual risks being measured as lacking depth. I believe that Obama runs a very high risk of being painted as a lightweight for this very reason. Let’s touch upon a few examples of Obama’s waffling while simultaneously working on growing his popularity:

1. Stimulus Package: rammed through Congress by Pelosi and Reid without a fair and full reading of the bill. We are now paying for the shortcomings in the bill. Obama “sold” this package via his Town Hall “concerts.”

2. On the “torture” front, Obama initially declared he was moving forward without reviewing and potentially prosecuting Bush officials. In the face of massive pressure from a hard core liberal element of the Democratic Party, Obama quickly reversed course and indicated he may pursue investigations and prosecutions of Bush officials. Getting pushed around by “friends” does not exactly send a message of character and strength to the world.

3. Budget: Obama will run over a number of Blue Dog Democrats specifically on the health care front via a process known as reconciliation which disallows filibustering. The use of the reconciliation process has never been used for major legislation. The overall budget is a MASSIVE spending proposition which dramatically escalates the federal deficit.

4. Budget Deficit: under pressure from the same Blue Dog Democrats and after putting forth the largest budget ever, Obama is now recommending a “pay as you go” bill which would instill higher taxes or spending cuts after this budget.

Why do we need to wait? Why shouldn’t we impose this “pay as you go” before the budget? Very simply, Obama would not be able to hold to his promise of not raising taxes on the middle class.

Bloomberg provides insight on the pay-as-you-go approach, Obama Urges Congress to Pass Law Enforcing Fiscal Discipline.

The timing of Obama’s newly found fiscal discipline is very interesting. Why? Earlier this week, Obama came out with a “bold” approach to imposing real discipline within his cabinet. Bloomberg shed light on Obama’s boldness,

Obama was criticized as doing too little to confront the deficit when he ordered his Cabinet to cut $100 million out of the budget in the next 90 days, which would cut this year’s projected deficit by about 0.006 percent.

Yep, this newfound discipline is starting with an aggressive move of cutting 6 thousandths of 1 per cent from this year’s budget. Such a “draconian” (NOT) level of cuts hints at how large Obama’s budget is while seriously questioning his integrity and that of the Democratic leadership on this topic.

A President who has an agenda a mile long but six inches deep risks being exposed when the wind kicks up. Speaking of wind and Obama, which way is it blowing today?

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