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Connecticut: Not What You Make, but What You Spend

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 7th, 2010 10:44 AM |

I missed a story the other day that is a likely precursor to many similar stories in the weeks and months ahead. What is that? Downgrades in the municipal finance markets. Which municipality, or in this case which state, is being downgraded? The wealthiest state in the nation, Connecticut.

BusinessWeek highlights this story in reporting, Connecticut Rating Cut by Fitch Ahead of Debt Sale:

Connecticut, the state with the highest tax-supported debt, had its bond rating lowered one level to AA by Fitch Ratings as it prepares to borrow money to cover a budget deficit for a second straight year. Read the rest »


G20 and US: Going Separate Ways Highlights Prisoner’s Dilemma

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 7th, 2010 8:25 AM |

As we continue navigating the global economic landscape, national interests are now overwhelming coordinated global interests. How so?

Unlike the coordinated message at the widely publicized 2009 G20 summit held in London, the clashing of widely divergent national views at the 2010 G20 meeting held in Busan, South Korea is hardly melodious. The implications for global markets will be enormous.

Last year, the U.S. swapped all sorts of favors for a coordinated global fiscal stimulus; this year, the U.S., represented by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, is receiving the cold shoulder. Finance ministers from around the world are happy to go their own way in pursuit of what they believe to be their national interests. Can you blame them? Read the rest »


From the Archives: Lessons from Coach Wooden

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 5th, 2010 7:22 PM |

I can not properly express how much I truly admire John Wooden. I cherish his approach to life. With his passing yesterday, my respect for him as a man dictates that I rerun this commentary and video which I originally posted last November. The world and our country need more men like Coach Wooden. May he rest in peace as he is reconnected with the love of his life, his beloved Nell. I hope you will ponder John Wooden’s message in the embedded video and incorporate his principles on life into your lives. The greatness of John Wooden will live forever. LD

The measure of real value is whether something can stand the test of time. While certain individuals, products, or principles appreciate over time, others dim as time passes. Society also has a funny way of embracing new and valued concepts in an attempt to market and materialize definitions of happiness.

In the midst of the noise and volatility of our current financial market and economic landscape, I treasure those principles which are often overlooked and under-appreciated. These principles include: discipline, simplicity, selflessness, loyalty, drive, humility, relationships, integrity, love. While without being judgmental it is not difficult to identify individuals or situations lacking these timeless traits, how often are we able to identify individuals or situations embracing these characteristics? Read the rest »


No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle Welcomes Michael Shulman

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 4th, 2010 1:12 PM |

UPDATE: This episode of NQR’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle has concluded. You can listen to a recording of the episode in its entirety by clicking the play button on the audio player provided below. Once the audio begins, you can advance or rewind to any portion of the episode by clicking at any point along the play bar.

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Is the market overvalued? Have we merely created another bubble? How do we measure if  a stock or the market is ‘all bubbled up?’ Well, you have come to the right place as this Sunday evening (8-9pm ET) No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle Welcomes Michael Shulman.

Who is Michael Shulman? A fellow contributing author at Seeking Alpha, from which we learn:

Michael Shulman is the Editor of Michael Shulman’s Short Side Trader, a newsletter advisory service published by Investor Place Media. The service guides individual investors on the short side of the stock market. He is also the author of Sell Short (published by John Wiley, 2009). Mr. Shulman served as Managing Director of Research for ChangeWave Research for four years where he produced technology and healthcare research for financial institutions. Read the rest »


Michael Shulman Provides Sense on Cents

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 4th, 2010 5:53 AM |

In my navigating the economic landscape, I have had the great fortune to meet some fascinating individuals. I thoroughly enjoy bringing the wisdom of these individuals to Sense on Cents. I recently crossed paths with an expert on shorting stocks. Who is this expert? Michael Shulman.

I will be hosting Michael this Sunday evening on No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle from 8-9pm ET.

In anticipation of that show, prudence dictates we get a healthy dose of sense on cents from Michael. He recently wrote at Seeking Alpha on the perils within the EU. What does Michael foresee? Let’s take a look at Michael’s commentary, Shorting the Euro Crisis, Shorting the Banks:

The debate about the euro crisis is now in our face, on television and on the front pages of newspapers – much of it among pundits who know too little and say too much. What all investors know is banks with too much sovereign debt are not going to be looked at kindly by investors. Read the rest »


FHLB San Francisco Earthquake

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 3rd, 2010 11:52 AM |

I first introduced readers of Sense on Cents to issues embedded within the Federal Home Loan Bank system in the spring of 2009. In an article entitled FHLBs: Red Sea, Dead Sea or Both?, I highlighted:

Charles Bowsher, the former chair of FHLB’s Office of Finance sent a warning shot loud and clear about the “hidden and embedded” losses in this system when he resigned his position as chair of the FHLB Office of Finance in late March (2009). As Bloomberg reported on April 2nd:

Bowsher, who was comptroller general of the U.S. from 1981 to 1996, had a simple reason for resigning last week as chairman of the Federal Home Loan Bank System’s Office of Finance. He didn’t want to put his name on the banks’ combined financial statements, because he was uncomfortable vouching for them.

Well, the shot Bowsher sent a year ago reverberated today in the form an earthquake as reported by the American Banker, Questioning Marks on Mortgage Bonds at San Francisco FHLB:>>>> Read the rest »


Let’s Review “What They Said About Fan and Fred”

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 3rd, 2010 5:55 AM |

What do you have to do today? What did you do yesterday? What is on your schedule for tomorrow? What did the market do yesterday? What will the market do today? What might it do tomorrow?

America lives in the moment. While in certain circumstances that emphasis on the immediate may be helpful and appropriate, in my opinion, that approach generates a lack of real depth and understanding within our national psyche.

Real sense on cents requires a much greater understanding of the past in order to generate a much more astute projection of the future. We must hold our financial and political leaders to a similar — if not even more vigorous — standard. Regrettably, we allow the Wall Street and Washington establishments, in concert with an ineffective media, to frame our national debate. In the process, are we mere mindless lemmings being led to slaughter? Read the rest »


Indict, Prosecute, Convict the Fraudsters…Or Else!!

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 2nd, 2010 1:20 PM |

Has America lost the courage to aggressively address those who commit fraud? Is the American public even aware of the massive fraud perpetrated by those in our financial system which led to our current economic crisis? Are those in Washington willing to take a stand, risk their own skins, call out those engaged in fraud, even if some of the fraudsters occupy neighboring seats at nearby regulatory bodies?

Unless we find people in our government who are willing to make these calls, repeat them publicly in a long, loud fashion, and compel prosecutors to issue indictments, then I fear our union will pay a price and incur a cost that may be immeasurable.

Why so strong? Why so strident? Read the rest »


Consumer Metrics Institute Projects 3rd Quarter GDP of -2%!! That’s Right -2%!!

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 2nd, 2010 8:25 AM |

Do you hear a grinding sound? Listen a little harder. That sound is the brakes being applied to the U.S. economy.

The current price action in commodities markets (as highlighted in my commentary yesterday, “Commodities Growling Like a Bear”) is very much reflective of this braking process. How do we measure the slowing? Where can we gain evidence? Let’s turn to Rick Davis’ fabulous work at Consumer Metrics Institute.

Recall that Rick has not only been way out in front with his calls on the growth of the U.S. economy, but also very accurate especially given that he is projecting GDP a full 4 months prior to its official release. Read the rest »


Commodities Growling Like a Bear

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 1st, 2010 2:48 PM |

Does anybody have any doubt that the equity markets are heavily manipulated by the banks and Uncle Sam? I didn’t think so.

The same clearly holds true for our credit markets, primarily the Treasury market. That said, the commodities market, in my opinion, is much more closely aligned with the real economy. What have commodities done over the last few years? The DJ-UBS Commodity Index was up a mere 16% in 2009 and is down 10% so far in 2010. Over the last two years, the index is down approximately 50%, significantly more than most major equity averages.

What are commodities telling us currently? Let’s navigate. Read the rest »


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Larry Doyle

Larry Doyle A Wall Street veteran's views and instincts on the markets, economy, and all things financial.







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