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Beggar Thy Neighbor

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 5th, 2010 12:17 PM |

So much has happened along our economic landscape over the last two to three years that it is hard to weigh the magnitude and depth of many of the developments. That said, the simple fact is the tectonic plates underlying our global economy have shifted massively as a result of the enormous financial earthquake of 2008. While global governments and central banks have performed varying degrees of  triage to save states, nations, and regions, the movements of the plates are continuing along under the surface. To that end, what is the economic reality now bubbling above the surface given the shift in our tectonic plates below? Let’s navigate and review the reality known as Beggar Thy Neighbor, defined by our friendly Investing primer as, 

An international trading policy that utilizes currency devaluations and protective barriers to alleviate a nation’s economic difficulties at the expense of other countries. While the policy may help repair an economic hardship in the nation, it will harm the country’s trading partners, worsening its economic status.  Read the rest »


“The Crisis Is About Loss Redistribution”

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 4th, 2010 6:26 AM |

While many on Wall Street and Washington may care to proselytize about the impact of different programs implemented during our economic crisis, one individual provided a condensed but brutally honest assessment of the various initiatives implemented to ‘save’ our economy. Who is this purveyor of wisdom or ‘sense on cents’ savant? None other than Edward Kane. Who is that? Let’s navigate as The New York Times’ Gretchen Morgenson once again distinguished herself in writing, Count on Sequels to TARP:

“THE crisis is about loss redistribution,” said Edward J. Kane, professor of finance at Boston College and an authority on regulatory failures. “In a crisis, these institutions have much more power with the government than taxpayers do and they will make it seem in the interests of responsible officials to rescue them, whether that’s Congress, the Treasury or the Federal Reserve. But the notion that you can always throw these losses on the taxpayer in the long run is very, very dangerous. There will come a time when the taxpayers will come close to revolt.”

Redistributing stress points does not eliminate them. Each and every day is thus one day closer to that reality for American taxpayers. We would be foolhardy to think that reality is not a very real possibility.

Larry Doyle

Please subscribe to all my work via e-mail, an RSS feed, on Twitter or Facebook.

I have no affiliation or business interest with any entity referenced in this commentary. As President of Greenwich Investment Management, an SEC regulated privately held registered investment adviser, I am merely a proponent of real transparency within our markets so that investor confidence and investor protection can be achieved.


Inside Wall Street View of Economy and Market: ‘Pyrrhic Victory’

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 1st, 2010 4:31 AM |

Thanks to the friend of Sense on Cents who shared this commentary on our economy and markets. This commentary for clients emanated from a major Wall Street bank. I believe the writer’s sentiments are consistent with mine in terms of my assessment of a ‘walking pneumonia’ economy.  The writer’s comparison of our economic recovery to a Pyrrhic victory is very interesting. I appreciate his utilization of another ancient Greek lesson as we try to recover, move forward, and live to fight another day.

>More work to do for monetary policymakers.

>Global economic activity unlikely to relapse, but expect growth to stay lackluster.

>Markets more likely to climb than collapse under the wall of worry.

The military victories of ancient Greek King Pyrrhus over the Romans during the third century B.C. were notable for the devastating losses that his armies suffered in the process. Indeed it is said that after his triumph at Asculum, Pyrrhus remarked to his officers that “another such victory and we are undone”. In many ways, last week’s formal pronouncement by the National Bureau of Economic Research that the U.S. recession ended in June 2009 had the distinct feel of a Pyrrhic victory, underlined by the sickly figures released on housing demand. Read the rest »


FINRA vs Amerivet Attorneys: Mano a Mano

Posted by Larry Doyle on September 30th, 2010 8:29 AM |

Will America ever learn what truly transpired within Wall Street’s self-regulatory organization, FINRA? Will FINRA be allowed to placate its members and America while not addressing the hard questions those constituencies want answered?

FINRA member firms voted overwhelmingly in support of a number of non-binding proxy proposals sponsored by Amerivet Securities. I highlighted the overwhelming vote in my August 14th commentary, FINRA Gets New ‘Sheriffs’; Amerivet Proxy Proposals Approved!! Well, I know that our financial regulatory system is far from democratic but FINRA’s response to the overwhelming votes leads one to believe FINRA looks to redefine the term, “autocratic.” Let’s review the FINRA statement and the counterpunch provided by the attorneys representing Amerivet Securities. Read the rest »


Wall Street Arbitration “Going Public” but FINRA Owes America A Lot More Than That

Posted by Larry Doyle on September 29th, 2010 4:49 AM |

Those who care about truth, transparency, and integrity while navigating our financial markets and economic landscape won another round in our ongoing battle today. How so? As with any business, disputes and disagreements will always occur. How those disputes are adjudicated has always been a subject of much consternation on Wall Street and more so throughout America. Why? Many investors felt the mandated arbitration process disadvantaged investors against Wall Street firms because the arbitration panel has traditionally consisted solely of industry representatives. That standard went through a trial change. That trial change is now being proposed to be made permanent. Think Wall Street and FINRA are beginning to understand how America truly feels? Wall Street’s self-regulatory organization FINRA released the following statement today:  Read the rest »


Peter Weinberg ‘Tells It Like It Is’

Posted by Larry Doyle on September 28th, 2010 7:50 AM |

I first introduced readers of Sense on Cents to Peter Weinberg a year ago when I wrote, Wall Street “Skin” Needs to Thicken. Weinberg was not reticent then in highlighting Wall Street’s misaligned incentive compensation system which clearly practiced the “heads I win, tails you lose” model. The other day, the Financial Times ran a clip in which Peter Weinberg once again provides a refreshing and honest perspective on our markets, economy, Wall Street, Washington, and the global economic landscape. This 8-minute video distinguishes Weinberg as an individual not beholden to special interests or talking his ‘book.’ In fact, I would say Weinberg provides a wealth of ‘sense on cents.’ Clicking on the image below will redirect you to the video clip at the Financial Times.

Larry Doyle

Please subscribe to all my work via e-mail, an RSS feed, on Twitter or Facebook.

I have no affiliation or business interest with any entity referenced in this commentary. As President of Greenwich Investment Management, an SEC regulated privately held registered investment adviser, I am merely a proponent of real transparency within our markets so that investor confidence and investor protection can be achieved.


Economics: An Art or a Science? Checking in with Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute

Posted by Larry Doyle on September 27th, 2010 7:21 AM |

The study of human behavior may be considered a science but to me it is the greatest and most challenging of arts. Why is that? For the very simple reason that while we are limited in the ability to study human behavior by reviewing the past, we are challenged by the fact that future behaviors are forever changing. The lessons of the past often do repeat themselves in the future; however, the environment of the PRESENT has NEVER truly been experienced so our current and future behaviors are so hard to forecast. Thus, is economics more art or science? Perhaps we can cover both bases and call it as much an art as a science especially in the Uncle Sam Economy circa 2010.

I raise this topic based upon a recent commentary put forth by a Sense on Cents favorite site, Consumer Metrics Institute. Rick Davis continues to paint an exquisite work as he recently penned, The Diverging GDP,

Prior to each revision to the GDP we are asked for insights into the likely course of those corrections from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (“BEA”) of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Most of the questions we have received recently center on the increasing divergence of our Daily Growth Index from the BEA’s GDP over the past couple of quarters: Read the rest »


Jason Zweig Interview with Seth Klarman: Strongly Recommended

Posted by Larry Doyle on September 25th, 2010 10:22 AM |

Patience is a virtue.

Wall Street is neither a patient place, nor a patient industry. Our nation is now paying a very steep price for the perpetual short term mentality that continues to dominate our financial system and permeate our nation.

I strongly believe we need to shirk those who make different recommendations every other day. We need to embrace those who have a more macro view of the world and our markets and the insights to navigate accordingly. While many may profess to have these skills and perspectives, very few distinguish themselves like The Baupost Group’s Seth Klarman. Read the rest »


“A Blow to Mary Schapiro”

Posted by Larry Doyle on September 24th, 2010 8:20 AM |

The battle for truth, transparency, and integrity within the ring of our economic landscape is nothing short of a 15-round heavyweight brawl. With many rabbit punches thrown by those embedded in the Wall Street-Washington incestuous relationship parried and countered by those who want the aforementioned virtues, this encounter would be great entertainment if it were not so serious and impactful on our nation’s well being. Breaking news last night clearly had the judges giving the most recent round in this pugilistic engagement to those in the transparency corner. Let’s wind the tape and get after it.

With news that both Houses of Congress have now voted to repeal the SEC’s exemption from FOIA (Freedom of Information Act) requests, our ongoing pursuit of truth, transparency, and integrity won a round — but not yet the fight — yesterday. For those unaware of this story, I will offer some highlights, add some between round commentary, AND then ask the hard hitting questions you will most assuredly not see elsewhere.

Read the rest »


CFOs Feeling Like Sisyphus

Posted by Larry Doyle on September 23rd, 2010 12:47 PM |

The lessons of history are so great. Regrettably, all too often those lessons are not fully learned and are thus repeated. My days at Boston Latin School in the early ’70s introduced me to the great ancient civilizations of Greece and Rome. The stories of the battles, the empires, the pride, and the downfalls held many lessons which stay with me to this day. These memories came back to me this morning as I reviewed a recent poll of our nation’s CFOs. Let’s look both forward and backward as we review CFO Magazine’s That Sinking Feeling, Again:

Optimism about the U.S. economy has fallen back to recession levels among U.S. chief financial officers, despite the fact that they expect earnings to grow by 12% in the next 12 months and capital spending to increase by 7%. Read the rest »


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