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Looking Back to Look Forward: “What Will Happen to the American Dream?”

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 13th, 2010 8:07 AM |

How many of you reading this post feel as if life is becoming a blur, given the ongoing and unending avalanche of troubling economic news? I sense this reality becoming more and more prevalent throughout our society. I also sense that people lose track of both time and developments. Keeping a sense of balance and perspective during these challenging times is critically important. To this end, I want to go back one year and review what I wrote then in the hope it will bring these badly needed virtues into focus today. On October 12, 2009, I wrote What Will Happen to the American Dream?

The pursuit of a better life and greater opportunities have driven successive generations since the founding of our nation. Will that dream live on? Will future generations have a chance to live a better life than the current generation or recent generations? Read the rest »


GPI Shows a “Very Clear Deflationary Trend”

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 12th, 2010 3:04 PM |

Are you scratching your head wondering about the title of this commentary? Are you wondering if I inadvertently mistyped and should have written CPI for Consumer Price Index? Is it possible that I meant to write PPI for Producer Price Index? Am I somehow opining on a new found capability of the fabulous GPS navigation devices? A resounding no to all of the above.

I have been a big proponent of the work produced by Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute. Recall that Rick captures real-time internet related discretionary consumer purchases to measure the overall health and pulse of our economy.  As much as some may question the correlation of Rick’s work and the economic reports released by the crowd in Washington, I am a big fan of his work. I strongly encourage people to follow him. Why do I broach this topic?

Do you trust our Washington establishment to provide real truth and display unquestioned integrity in our economic releases? You don’t? Neither do I. Aside from monitoring Rick’s work, are there other broad based,  independent vehicles with which we can measure economic data?  Read the rest »


ObamaCare: Is the Obama White House Going “Soprano” Again, or Why Are Three Catholic Scranton, PA Hospitals Being Sold?

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 12th, 2010 6:23 AM |

This story is a tad long, but it is chock-filled with a wealth of twists, turns, personalities, politicians, and much more. I strongly recommend.

Politics is clearly a contact sport. No doubt not all of the punches are above the belt.

I first referenced the Obama White House use of intimidation in the case of Tom Lauria, then lawyer for a group of Chrysler creditors. I wrote in early May 2009, Is Barack Obama Going Tony Soprano? How uncanny that the same reference is utilized today in an article centered on the impact of ObamaCare and the pending sale of three Scranton-area Catholic hospitals. American Spectator writes in regard to ObamaCare:

….the White House is confronted with a rapidly accelerating set of unintended consequences spreading across the country. As listed by theWall Street Journal, those unintended consequences included 2011 premium increases shooting up as high as 9%; “multibillion-dollar corporate writedowns by Verizon, AT&T, Caterpillar and others”; the disruption of insurance markets, a show-down with McDonald’s, the imposition of price controls on premiums, insurers withdrawing from Medicare Advantage.

In what appears to have become a pattern, the response from the Obama Administration has been repeatedly swift and harsh –compared by one critic as an episode straight out of the Sopranos, the famous HBO mobster series. Read the rest »


Institute of International Finance Showcases ‘Prisoners’ Dilemma’

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 11th, 2010 7:08 AM |

I first highlighted the quandary known as the ‘Prisoners’ Dilemma’ in January 2009. I have written a dozen separate commentaries on this economic ‘game’ over the last twenty-two months. Well, while this economic dilemma can be played out between two nations or amongst a wide array, the fact is the stakes of increasing protectionist policies and economic gamesmanship are rising. As aggregate private sector global demand for goods and services continues to decline, global governments are looking to jockey their currency values lower in order to capture a larger share of the international trade pie. While the jawboning in Washington is increasing, rest assured the jockeying overseas is just as fierce. Let’s review the thoughts of a neutral arbiter on this topic. The Institute of International Finance recently weighed in on this issue and wrote,

IIF Calls for Renewed Global Coordination to Resolve Critical Economic Issues. Urgent Actions Needed to Counter Unilateral Moves. Read the rest »


Phil Trupp Is ‘Ruthless’

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 10th, 2010 12:01 PM |

I can not recall how I first crossed path with Phil Trupp in the spring of 2009. That said, I am glad I did. Phil is a genuine American hero for his dogged pursuit of the truth and his simultaneous elevation of virtues our country needs. I interviewed him twice on No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. I look forward to meeting him personally next week at the National Press Club in Washington for the official book launch of his highly acclaimed, Ruthless: How Enraged Investors Reclaimed Their Investments…and Beat Wall Street.

If you are dismayed by the ongoing steep slope of our economic landscape, take heart that there are people like Phil Trupp who are willing to fight for what is right and stand up to regulators, government officials, financial behemoths, and a compliant media. This short 5-minute clip promoting his book exposing all of the failings embedded in the massive scam encompassing auction-rate securities will give you a nice shot of adrenaline and inspiration.

Watch the clip…and then buy the book because the fight is a long way from being over.

Larry Doyle

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I have no affiliation or business interest with any entity referenced in this commentary. As President of Greenwich Investment Management, an SEC regulated privately held registered investment adviser, I am merely a proponent of real transparency within our markets so that investor confidence and investor protection can be achieved.


“A Dangerous Game”

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 8th, 2010 10:57 AM |

Alan Greenspan will certainly not go down in history as the best Federal Reserve chairman. In fact, I think the history books will judge Greenspan very harshly for having overseen the biggest bubbling up within our financial system in eighty years. That said, Greenspan is not a total nitwhit. I believe Greenspan is now working diligently to recover his reputation. How is he doing that? More often than not, I witness Greenspan trying to put forth tmore of the truth rather than the party lines promoted by Wall Street and Washington. What did Greenspan say recently? Let’s navigate a Bloomberg commentary, Read the rest »


Should We Have Trusted the Chinese to Let the Yuan Appreciate?

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 8th, 2010 8:58 AM |

To what degree can international trading partners trust each other in the face of an ongoing decline in overall aggregate global demand for goods and services? 

More specifically, to what degree can the two major economic superpowers, those being the United States and China, trust each other in the midst of major economic challenges. While everybody can smile for the camera at trade conferences and international economic summits, what happens when those officials go home and implement policy? As with most things in life, we are wise to watch what is done to a far greater extent than what is said. Why do I raise this topic now?

Let’s look in the rear view mirror to mid-June at which point in time our wizards in Washington celebrated as the Chinese announced that they would agree to let their currency, the yuan, appreciate in value. Read the rest »


How Big Is the Punch Bowl?

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 7th, 2010 1:00 PM |

Party on.

In watching a midday Bloomberg interview, the host Tom Keene asked his guests just how big the punch bowl will be that Fed chair Ben Bernanke puts in front of investors at the next Fed meeting. The punch bowl being the size of the highly anticipated second round of Federal Reserve quantitative easing that is driving interest rates lower and asset prices higher.  

While this punch bowl may be smaller than the initial party launched in 2009, the fact is expectations are that this punch bowl will run anywhere from $500 billion to $1 trillion in size. That is a lot of liquidity to keep the Wall Street party going. However, that figure is also a very strong indication as to the enormity of the underlying problems embedded in our economic foundation. Read the rest »


IMF Encourages Investors to “Rely On Their Own Due Diligence”

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 7th, 2010 9:36 AM |

In the midst of the economic crisis, many business models have been exposed as broken. Other models have been exposed as downright useless. Somewhere in that realm lies the business model of our credit rating agencies. How will these entities, charged with providing meaningful credit ratings analysis, adapt to the changing economic and financial landscape? More importantly from my standpoint in trying to promote ‘sense on cents’, how should investors adapt? Well, my jaw dropped yesterday upon reading a report by none other than the International Monetary Authority on this topic. Let’s navigate.

The IMF recently produced a Global Financial Stability Report. Embedded in that report is an Executive Summary which highlights:  Read the rest »


The Hidden Costs of Quantitative Easing or “As An Actuary You Are Having Sleepless Nights”

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 6th, 2010 9:03 AM |

When central banks hint at implementing further quantitative easing and risk-based assets (commodities and equities) rally and interest rates fall (meaning, bonds rally as well), this is all good, right? If that is the case, is it even better when the hints become an outright statement of plans for more quantitative easing as was the case yesterday with The Bank of Japan? (WSJ: Central Banks Open Spigot; October, 4, 2010)

Clearly, the global central banks are launching these new volleys of quantitative easing in an attempt to forestall deflationary pressures at work underlying our global economy. That said, while asset markets are rising, we need to be aware there are very real costs to this ongoing financial experiment. What are the costs? Read the rest »


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Larry Doyle

Larry Doyle A Wall Street veteran's views and instincts on the markets, economy, and all things financial.







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