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Doyle Holiday Cheer

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 23rd, 2010 7:58 AM |

What do you get when you put five Irish guys involved in finance around a table?

1. A lot of laughs.
2. Varied opinions.
3. Interesting insights.
4. A mix of plenty BS and zero BS depending on the topic.
5. Real bonding and true friendship.
6. ‘Sense on cents.’
7. All of the above.

Well, last evening 4 of my 7 siblings (6 brothers) and I got together with our respective families, including 16 nieces and nephews, for some Doyle holiday cheer. We covered all of the points highlighted above, plus some. Having experienced many of these get togethers over the years, I often wish that a tape recorder were running to capture the material and bantering. Read the rest »


Respecting Our Elders

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 22nd, 2010 9:23 AM |

Growing up in an Irish Catholic household, “spare the rod and spoil the child” was very much the order of the day. Along with that, there were many other principles that left a profound imprint on me. One of the strongest was the tenet that we ‘respect our elders.’ I believe experience is the best teacher. I also believe basic respect is a precious virtue. Combining the two, ‘respecting our elders’ is not only an admirable quality but an overriding tenet encompassing ‘sense on cents.’

On this note, I especially appreciated the following commentary written in today’s Wall Street Journal by former Major League Baseball Commissioner Fay Vincent. From Antietam to Joe Dimaggio, Read the rest »


Wikileaks vs Wall Street

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 21st, 2010 7:46 AM |

Will Wikileaks ‘regulate’ Wall Street in a manner that Washington never would or could?

The technological revolution over the last few decades has taken us far further and far faster than many ever would have believed. Just think of your daily regimen and the number of times you utilize technology and equipment that were mere dreams not long ago. Every lane on the ‘technological superhighway’ would clearly seem to be high-speed and E-Z pass only. As individuals travel this highway the world has gotten very small very quickly. Perhaps we could say that the world has become ‘illuminated.’ Read the rest »


State Budgets: Day of Reckoning

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 19th, 2010 9:09 PM |

For those who may have missed CBS News 60 Minutes this evening, there was a fabulous segment on the impending disasters within our municipal finance sector. This piece entitled State Budgets: Day of Reckoning runs for approximately 14 minutes and is a MUST SEE.

The problems embedded within a number of states and across hundreds–if not thousands–of local municipalities are not going away. Will Uncle Sam need to provide another trillion dollar bailout? Will ‘red states’ be asked to bail out ‘blue states’, perhaps starting with Illinois? Let’s navigate.

Larry Doyle

Please subscribe to all my work via e-mail, an RSS feed, on Twitter or Facebook.

I have no affiliation or business interest with any entity referenced in this commentary. The opinions expressed are my own and not those of Greenwich Investment Management. As President of Greenwich Investment Management, an SEC regulated privately held registered investment adviser, I am merely a proponent of real transparency within our markets so that investor confidence and investor protection can be achieved.


Developing a Winning Attitude

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 19th, 2010 12:06 PM |

When launching Sense on Cents in early 2009, I very much hoped that people would view this site as a resource and a welcoming place. I have often thought that if even just one person benefits from my work and writing, then my mission will be complete.

The feedback I have received from many energizes me. I have periodically highlighted some of the feedback, especially if I believe others can benefit. In that vein, my adrenaline rushed the other day upon reading a comment left by a regular reader in response to my writing Gaining the Edge.

The reader’s message and then the ‘message within the message’ speak for themselves. I am at a loss for words–which does not happen often–so will allow this comment to speak for me.

LD, here’s a speech my son wrote for school, he’s in the 9th grade. Read the rest »


Gaining the Edge

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 17th, 2010 7:20 AM |

What competitive individual worth his salt does not want to ‘gain the edge’? Have you ever come across successful individuals–success being a very relative term–who did not want to ‘gain an edge’ and then widen the gap with the competition? I haven’t.

I had fully intended on writing this morning about the ongoing developments in the insider trading scandal sweeping across Wall Street. ‘Gaining the edge’ is very much the common thread that runs through this story. The lengths to which selected individuals would go to ‘gain that edge’ make for interesting reading. The wearing of wiretaps by informants adds to the intrigue. Where will the story lead? Which hedge funds may be implicated? What ‘masters of the universe’ may fall while pursuing their untold riches and accompanying success?

Then I thought, why would I want to take readers into this seamy world and give attention to those who may break the rules to ‘gain that edge.’ I don’t. At least not today. Read the rest »


If Education Is Expensive, Try Ignorance

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 16th, 2010 7:01 AM |

I love our country. With four children I certainly hope for better days ahead. That said, while the virtue of hope is critically important to the growth and fiber of any institution, including a nation, hope alone will not bring us to the promised land. What is needed?

A strong educated pool of labor. How is the United States doing on this front? Poor? Pathetic? Abysmal? All of the above? That would be ‘all of the above.’ Read the rest »


What Is Going On In the Bond Market?

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 15th, 2010 7:02 AM |

Interest rates globally have moved up approximately 50 basis points (.5%) over the last month with the bulk of that move having occurred in the last week. What is going on? What is driving this move higher? A harbinger of better days ahead or an indication that the massive deficits in selected nations will require higher rates to attract capital? Or both of these reasons and a lot more. Let’s navigate. Read the rest »


A ‘Graphic’ View of the U.S. Credit Collapse

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 14th, 2010 6:28 AM |

If a picture paints a thousand words, then the graphs I am highlighting today would encompass many volumes. I thank the regular reader of Sense on Cents who brought them to my attention. Major prop to Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture who ran this commentary yesterday. Major credit to the writer at the Global Macro Monitor blog.

The Global Macro Monitor blog was started by an independent trader and economist and, in a prior life, was a global macro hedge fund PM/trader, headed emerging market bond trading desks on Wall Street, and an economist/global strategist, beginning his career at the World Bank in the mid 1980’s. His unique and unconventional views are reflected on his website at marcromon.wordpress.com.

~~~

We constructed these charts with data from today’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds. They are both stunning and frightening as they illustrate the cardiac arrest that took place in the credit markets. The collapse in credit issuance/borrowing began in 2008 and would have been net negative without the Federal government. In 2009, for example, the Federal government was 141 percent of total net credit borrowings. Read the rest »


Illinois and Loan Sharks

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 13th, 2010 7:10 AM |

Those strapped for cash will go to great lengths to buy time and seek relief. This reality is not pleasant but it is reality. In a world awash in a sea of debt, the debtors will continually be faced with the prospects of devaluing, defaulting, or restructuring their debts. Prior to defaulting or restructuring, debtors will often resort to “unique strategies” to postpone the day of reckoning.

This reality very often plays out at the individual level or the small business level. When large corporate entities are forced to “unique strategies” to continue operations, that typically is not a very good sign. But what about municipalities? What does it mean when a city, state, or town is forced to a “unique strategy” in order to continue operations? Not a very good sign either, right? Right.

Well, indications are that the state of Illinois is resorting  to a “unique strategy” and “paying up” in order to get short term financing. Read the rest »


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Larry Doyle

Larry Doyle A Wall Street veteran's views and instincts on the markets, economy, and all things financial.







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