Baupost’s Seth Klarman Warns of Asset Bubble
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 10, 2014 7:51 AM |
More often than not, I take the wisdom provided by selected talking heads and industry insiders with a pound of salt.
Without being overly cynical strictly for cynicism’s sake, I discount a fair bit of the analysis put forth by many financial sleuths based on the individual ‘talking his own position.’ In fact, I believe that many outlets predominantly look for guests who play the game and toe the industry’s party line.
To that end, I look elsewhere for insights and perspectives that I really appreciate. Who are some of the money managers I truly respect but are rarely seen on major financial outlets? Bob Rodriguez, Jeremy Grantham, and Seth Klarman, who just so happens to offer some pointed insights highlighted today in a commentary in the FT: >>>>>>
One of the world’s most respected investors has raised the alarm over a looming asset price bubble, calling out “nosebleed valuations” in technology shares like Netflix and Tesla Motors and warning of the potential for a brutal correction across financial markets.
Seth Klarman, the publicity-shy head of the $27bn Baupost Group whose investment opinions have attracted almost a cult-like following, said that investors were underplaying risk and were not prepared for an end to central banks reversing a five-year experiment in ultra-loose money.
While noting that he could not predict exactly when a significant market correction would occur, Mr Klarman wrote in a private letter to clients: “When the markets reverse, everything investors thought they knew will be turned upside down and inside out. ‘Buy the dips’ will be replaced with ‘what was I thinking?’ . . . Anyone who is poorly positioned and ill-prepared will find there’s a long way to fall. Few, if any, will escape unscathed.”
Baupost, which is closed to new investment, returned $4bn to clients last year.
The warning by Mr Klarman, who has won a devoted audience for his highly cautious, value-driven approach, and whose out-of-print book on investment sells second-hand for as much as $2,900 on Amazon, comes after US shares surged by almost a third last year. Many well known technology companies, such as Facebook, more than doubled.
“Any year in which the S&P 500 jumps 32 per cent and the Nasdaq 40 per cent while corporate earnings barely increase should be a cause for concern, not for further exuberance,” Mr Klarman wrote.
“On almost any metric, the US equity market is historically quite expensive. A sceptic would have to be blind not to see bubbles inflating in junk bond issuance, credit quality, and yields, not to mention the nosebleed stock market valuations of fashionable companies like Netflix and Tesla Motors,” he wrote.
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