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Federal Reserve Misses The Target

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 13th, 2012 8:21 AM |

Stand back.

A marksman with a powerful weapon not properly focused on an appropriate target is capable of wreaking real havoc.

Who is the marksman? Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke. What is his powerful weapon? Monetary policy. What is the appropriate target? The level of employment in our nation. What might be the havoc? The list is too long but let’s start with a breakdown in the relationship between monetary policy and inflation and work our way to civil unrest. Havoc does not typically connote a well defined set of outcomes.

Am I being overly alarmist? I think not given the size of Bernanke’s weapon and how wildly off target he really is in the message he sent the markets just yesterday. What did he say?  Read the rest »


What Is Really Going On in Global Economy/Markets?

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 12th, 2012 11:58 AM |

There is a reason that Jeff Gundlach and team at Doubleline have gone from zero to $50 BILLION in assets under management in a shorter time frame than some people can go to the bathroom and get back to their desk. What is that reason?

In my humble opinion, Gundlach and his colleagues have an uncanny ability to be three steps ahead of the competition while scanning the global economic and market landscape from a 360 degree angle. What makes them even more unique?  Read the rest »


Libor Scandal et al: The True and Total Cost

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 12th, 2012 8:29 AM |

Would it be even possible to measure the total cost of the manipulation of Libor? A basis point here, a few basis points there and nobody really gets hurt, right? No, not right.

The simple fact is the manipulation of the most widely tracked short term interest rate in the world comes with the same very real costs attached to all forms of corruption, including the money laundering scandals at HSBC, Standard Chartered and who knows how many other institutions.

What are these costs?  Read the rest »


HSBC Money Laundering Scandal: More Racketeering

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 11th, 2012 8:42 AM |

Can you imagine if those involved in organized rackets including prostitution, drug dealing, human trafficking and the like were able to resolve their criminal activities by merely paying a fine?

What do you think their response would be? Do you think they would take a vow of chastity and then look to engage in upstanding business? Of course not. They would think “how the hell do we get that money back?”

Human nature being what it is, are we to believe that simply because executives of a banking institution issue a few mea culpas, accept some tough language, clawback some individual compensation, and profess to clean up their act BUT FACE NO INDIVIDUAL PROSECUTIONS might really change their stripes? Or are they inclined to think, “how the hell do we get that money back?” Read the rest »


Libor Scandal: This is Racketeering, Folks!!

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 10th, 2012 9:00 AM |

If it looks like a racket, and smells like a racket, and feels like a racket, it is probably a racket.

Those involved in the Libor scandal either directly or on the periphery certainly have little interest in this scandal being defined as a racket and thus subject to the RICO Act. Yet if we are going to have a degree of integrity in defining just what the hell goes on in our financial markets, then we had better hold the bar at the appropriate level if we ever care to root out the cronyism that is eroding our public interest.

The key point there being whether those charged with regulating our markets are truly willing and able to do just that. What is racketeering?  Read the rest »


I Know How to Solve the Fiscal Cliff

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 8th, 2012 11:39 AM |


How does one spell dysfunction?

W-A-S-H-I-N-G-T-O-N-D-C, that’s how.

While most people in our nation are compelled to develop and live within a budget, the incompetent and ill-advised in Washington strut their stuff with little regard for our nation’s general well being.

The simple fact is many politicians in Washington could not manage their way out of a paper bag yet we expect them to manage our nation’s finances. Read the rest »


A Better December Jobs Report? Wait, Revise That

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 7th, 2012 9:38 AM |

The unemployment report for the month of November was just released and is better than expected with non-farm payrolls increasing by 146, 000 jobs and the overall unemployment rate dropping to 7.7%. Happy times are here again, right? Wait, revise that.

While many pundits in Washington and on Wall Street are more than welcome to go little further than the headline numbers, let’s go behind the curtain and look a little bit closer. What do we see? Ooh, what’s this on the very last line of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report . . .  Read the rest »


David Kotok on Why We Need to Go Over the Cliff

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 6th, 2012 8:26 AM |

When might an individual with serious personal problems decide to make necessary change in his life? When they reach the depths of hell and decide “it does not need to be this way and it won’t any longer.”

How about a nation? Is there any doubt our nation faces enormous problems, fiscal and otherwise?  The manner in which we confront these problems will have a profound impact on our nation for generations. Will Washington swerve and avoid the fiscal cliff that some believe will lead us into a hellacious recession or are we better off actually experiencing that so as to finally wake up and make the necessary change? Are we even capable?

David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors provides real ‘sense on cents’ on this topic in response to a question posed to him, “what would you like see happen with the fiscal cliff?”  Read the rest »


Detroit Councilwoman Wants Obama-Money

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 5th, 2012 10:23 AM |

The political game of “quid pro quo”, another version of “payola”, used to have a degree of discretion. No longer.

In a bold and blatant message provided by Detroit City Council member JoAnn Watson, the racket of political payoff comes out of the backroom for all the world to see. Is this what the future of America looks like? The misguided and ill-conceived policies of ineffective politicians and their cronies take their case to Washington for a bailout from their friends in high places.

Many of our forefathers are certainly rolling over in their graves this morning.  The clip only runs 55 seconds. I hope the impact on you lasts a lot longer than that. Read the rest »


Olympus “Tobashi” Scandal: The Whistleblower Talks

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 5th, 2012 9:07 AM |

The Wall Street Journal reported a year ago tomorrow that an independent panel investigating the  accounting scandal at Olympus, the Japanese maker of cameras and medical imaging equipment, announced that the company had hidden losses of more than $1.5 billion over an extended period.

What was going on in this Japanese version of Enron? A practice known as tobashi, that is, a transferal of assets so as to conceal losses. Sounds very Enron-like. Who was involved and how did this persist for so long?  Read the rest »


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Larry Doyle

Larry Doyle A Wall Street veteran's views and instincts on the markets, economy, and all things financial.







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