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Why is George Soros Short the Euro? MUST READ!

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 3rd, 2009 6:10 AM |

In very short order, I have gained a deep respect and regard for our Economic All-Star, John Mauldin. I have come to appreciate that Mauldin and I view the market through the same lens focused on the global economy. While many media outlets focus on the day to day, if not hour to hour trading activity, I believe they are truly missing the forest for the trees.

While I have written twice over the last week about eastern Europe being the weakest link in the world of global finance, Mauldin and his colleague Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners provided insights and analysis that is numbing.

Why is George Soros short the euro? Let me provide a synopsis of Mauldin’s and Jensen’s “Europe On the Ropes.” Assuming those visiting Sense on Cents have an interest in the markets and economy, this piece is somewhat lengthy, but a MUST READ!! A link is provided at the end of my review. Read the rest »


Control Your Finances

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 2nd, 2009 7:43 PM |

For those who have been tracking my work for the last few months, you have heard me repeat the theme, “control your finances, so that your finances do not control you.”  Effectively, I am trying to address the financial disciplines that are less a series of individual transactions and more a way of life.

These disciplines are more easily formed at the earliest stages of one’s financial life and then reinforced throughout life. On that note, this piece is primarily targeted to our younger readers, although it certainly has applications for everybody.  

Our social customs have relegated the virtue of thrift to the back burner. In the process, our massive debt burdens are crippling us. Well, let’s move that virtue of thrift front and center and get very specific on this topic. Sense on Cents provides a link to a great investing primer (found in the right sidebar). There’s a wealth of information included in the link, but for now check out  Eight Financial Tips for Young Adults .

While reading the playbook is a good start, ultimately winning the game is all about execution. These plays may not be the answer to all your financial issues, but they are certainly a solid start in controlling your finances, so they do not control you!!

LD


A Virtual Smorgasbord

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 2nd, 2009 4:24 PM |

On the heels of the news about AIG, Berkshire, and HSBC, the equity markets have found no support today and are down 4%. While the malaise of the markets has much of the focus, let’s review a few other items that I see on today’s menu:

1. In regard to AIG, current CEO Edward Liddy and former CEO Hank Greenberg have started some public feuding over the nature of AIG’s problems. Greenberg is trying to make the case that the risks underwritten at AIG occurred after his departure. Liddy responded that the culture, the compensation system, and the division housing the bulk of AIG’s risk all developed under Greenberg.  Wow!! When our country is screaming for leadership, we have senior executives playing the blame game and pointing fingers. How pathetic!! Read the rest »


What’s Driving the Market Lower Today?

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 2nd, 2009 9:50 AM |

markets-down-arrowStock markets are expected to open lower by another 1.5% on the open this morning. What’s driving them lower….again?

1. News that AIG reported an actual 4th quarter 2008 loss of $61 billion. The government will inject ANOTHER $30 billion into this black hole. WHY? Very simply because AIG is the largest holder of CDS (credit default swaps) that serve as insurance for a number of banks and money managers. These CDS cover a wide array of assets but primarily the sub-prime mortgage space. Kevin Doyle of 12th Street Capital, and a guest here on my weekly No Quarter Radio program back in early January, shares that the index that tracks the sub-prime market is at its lows. No surprise there.

While the various media outlets are highlighting this story now, I wrote extensively about AIG and How Does One Lose $125 Billion? on February 24th. I not only wrote about the losses, but also delved into the culture that developed over the years at AIG under Hank Greenberg.  Not a pretty picture and seemingly not a lot of integrity in that company. Now we pay. Read the rest »


The Weakest Link is Weakening

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 2nd, 2009 6:00 AM |

The other day I highlighted the fact that 12 eastern European countries would solicit a bailout from the European Union over the weekend in Brussels. I defined this bloc of eastern European countries as currently the Weakest Link in the global economy. Well, if they were the weakest link then they just got weaker as they were rebuffed in their request for aid.

The dynamic at work in the weekend’s emergency meeting held in Brussels is a play on beggar-thy-neighbor policies implemented during times of economic stress.

There are actually a number of factors influencing the European Union’s refusal to provide bailout money to these eastern European nations. Included in these factors are the following: Read the rest »


In 15 Minutes, Join Larry Doyle’s “Dollars and Sense” on No Quarter Radio

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 1st, 2009 7:44 PM |

In 15 minutes, join us this evening from 8:00 to 9:00 p.m. ET on No Quarter Radio for LD’s Dollars and Sense. These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere!

The developments in the markets, economy, global finance, Wall Street, and Washington are occurring at breakneck speed. I will try to slow things down a bit and provide a sense of perspective. What did we learn in the markets over the last week and month and what do they mean for the weeks and months ahead? What is happening overseas and how does that impact us here at home? What is happening in the municipal sector and how will that impact the markets and our personal finances?
Read the rest »


Why Are Interest Rates Headed Higher?

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 1st, 2009 3:57 PM |

While our domestic stock markets are down approximately 50% over the last 14 months, there has been a rush of cash into short term money market funds, government bond funds, and in the last few months corporate bond funds and municipal bond funds. As I mentioned in my February 2009 Market Review, I am increasingly nervous about bond investments at this juncture. Why? I’m glad you asked.

1. Primarily due to the massive global government funding needs which are just starting to hit the market. In a recent piece, the highly regarded Financial Times projects global government debt issuance to TRIPLE in 2009.

German Prime Minister Angela Merkel is concerned about European countries looking to tap the markets on or near the same dates. She is proposing global coordination of debt issuance so as to insure that rates are not DRIVEN higher. Read the rest »


Tune In to “Larry Doyle’s Dollars and Sense” on NO QUARTER RADIO

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 1st, 2009 11:25 AM |

nqr-promoPlease join me this evening from 8:00-9:00PM (EST) on NO QUARTER RADIO for “Larry Doyle’s Dollars and Sense.” 

These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere! What is on your mind? What would you like to address? Please share your questions and thoughts by calling in to (347) 677-0792, and also join our live chat room, which I’ll start up about 10 minutes before the show begins!

As a reminder, all NO QUARTER RADIO programming is archived and can be played back at any time. Just go to the NO QUARTER RADIO site and look for previous episodes. In addition, each program is available as a podcast on iTunes.

Many thanks to Larry Johnson and the rest of the team at No Quarter USA blog for providing such a vibrant vehicle as NO QUARTER RADIO.


The Road Less Traveled

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 1st, 2009 7:45 AM |

It is not just Robert Frost who has benefitted from the road less traveled. For many in the world of finance, developing greater diversity in a financial portfolio or not blindly buying the hot product has truly made all the difference. Developing a contrarian viewpoint along with varied perspectives takes a little time and patience but the effort expended is well worth it.

To provide further insight on this topic, I recommend Investing “Road Less Traveled” May Lead To Riches.

Have you found any paths not well traveled but well worth traveling? Any questions, please do not be bashful.

LD


A Better Way to Fix the Banks

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 28th, 2009 7:30 PM |

The McKinsey Quarterly recently published an interesting piece on A Better Way to Fix the Banks. 

Enjoy!!


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Larry Doyle

Larry Doyle A Wall Street veteran's views and instincts on the markets, economy, and all things financial.







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