Sense on Cents

Where’s Harry When We Really Need Him?!

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 15th, 2009 2:39 PM |

The ratings process for the securities industry has been an absolute joke. With all due respect to those who work at the rating agencies, the business model and massive conflicts of interest have been an unmitigated disaster.

Where were the authorities with the vision to throw on the flashing yellow light in the midst of the storm? Well, we can all take comfort that the SEC has been working on reviewing the rating agencies model since late 2006 and has made 5 rulings. Over and above that, Ms. Schapiro shares with us that the SEC has undertaken further studies over the last ten months. 2006? Ten months? When the need for dynamic movements is never greater, our government continues to move at a snail’s pace.

Let’s listen to Ms. Mary Schapiro, current head of the SEC. It’s a long clip (approximately 55 minutes), but you can fast forward along the way at any time. CSPAN did not provide an embed code for this clip, but by clicking on the image below you will be brought directly to the CSPAN site and the video will begin playing.

As I listen to Ms. Schapiro pontificate about the concepts of aligning interests, business models, users of ratings, conflicts, multiple ratings, and ending reliance on ratings agencies, I have one very clear cut image piercing through my mind.

That image is of Harry Markopolos providing chilling Congressional testimony this past January on the failures of the SEC in handling the Madoff scam. I learned more about the SEC in Harry’s testimony than I had over the course of my entire career on Wall Street.

Couldn’t we use a guy like Harry running the SEC right now?

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Increased Foreclosures: An Equal and Opposite Reaction

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 15th, 2009 11:53 AM |

There are tremendous cross currents in residential housing. Over the course of the last few months we have seen the following:

-an uptick in housing starts
-an uptick in new home sales
-a decline in home prices as indicated by the S&P/Case-Shiller Index

Do not forget, though, that Uncle Sam had Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae postpone the foreclosure process over the course of the last few months. Additionally, Congress compelled certain of the larger mortgage originators, such as JP Morgan Chase, Citi, and Wells Fargo, to also postpone foreclosures.

While the postponing of foreclosures allows for a delay in that process, regrettably it does not negate it. As the WSJ reports today, Banks Ramp Up Foreclosures.

The Federal Reserve knows that increased supply in housing in the face of rising unemployment will further depress home prices. In fact, just yesterday the Fed made a statement indicating it believes housing prices may overshoot to the downside much as they overshot to the upside earlier this decade. That scenario seems to be the equivalent of a physics principle – for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

The subsequent impact of this increased foreclosure activity is an increase in chargeoffs by banks holding the mortgages. While certain banks, such as Wells Fargo, reported surprisingly strong 1st quarter earnings, be mindful that many analysts criticized Wells for not reserving more against future chargeoffs.

Over and above this impact on bank earnings, do not forget that the model used for the Bank Stress Tests incorporated an unemployment rate of 10.3% as the absolute worst case scenario.

That rate is now commonly accepted as a very strong likelihood.

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“I Want the Truth!”

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 15th, 2009 6:44 AM |

Recall how Hank Paulson compelled every major money center bank to accept government funds via the TARP last Fall. Paulson was concerned that if every institution did not participate in the TARP that the market would punish those institutions receiving funds.

The lack of delineation then and still now is creating stress for individual institutions and the market as a whole. Why? Markets thrive on two factors: capital and information. We have witnessed over the last year what a lack of capital in the form of credit has meant for the economy. We are also experiencing what a lack of information means.

Whether it is industrial and tech companies not providing guidance about their future earnings (GE, Intel just yesterday), banks utilizing relaxed mark-to-market accounting, or now banks being lumped together on Bank Stress Test results, the markets are sufferring as a result.

Are we seeing a version of the classic scene in a A Few Good Men? Who can ever forget this exchange?

Jessep: You want answers?
Kaffee (Tom Cruise): I think I’m entitled to them.
Jessep: You want answers?
Kaffee: I want the truth!
Jessep: You can’t handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls. And those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who’s gonna do it? You? You, Lt. Weinberg? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Santiago and you curse the Marines. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that Santiago’s death, while tragic, probably saved lives. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives…You don’t want the truth. Because deep down, in places you don’t talk about at parties, you want me on that wall. You need me on that wall.
We use words like honor, code, loyalty…we use these words as the backbone to a life spent defending something. You use ’em as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom I provide, then questions the manner in which I provide it! I’d rather you just said thank you and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon and stand a post. Either way, I don’t give a damn what you think you’re entitled to!
Kaffee: Did you order the code red?
Jessep: (quietly) I did the job you sent me to do.
Kaffee: Did you order the code red?
Jessep: You’re goddamn right I did!!

Read the rest »

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Economic Update April 14

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 14th, 2009 12:57 PM |

We received a mixed bag of economic news this morning. The WSJ provides a quick but fairly comprehensive analysis, U.S. Retail Sales Show New Weakness; Producer Prices Drop

In regard to the wholesale prices, the WSJ reports:

The Labor Department’s producer price index for finished goods fell 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.1% in February. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy costs, was unchanged last month from February.

The PPI data showed energy prices sliding 5.5% last month, after rising 1.3% in February. Food prices were down 0.7%.

Prices of passenger cars fell 0.2%, while light truck prices declined 0.4%.

“Today’s PPI report emphasizes that deflation rather than inflation remains the primary risk for now,” IHS Global Insight economist Nigel Gault said.

On the retail sales front:

Retail sales fell 1.1% compared to the prior month, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Economists expected a 0.3% increase in the key indicator of consumer spending.

The big drop followed increases in January and February that had ended a freefall in spending during the second half of 2008.

“It’s disappointing,” said Hugh Johnson, chairman of Johnson Illington Advisors in Albany, N.Y. “It tells us quite clearly that consumers continue to retrench, or are doing less borrowing and spending and more saving.”

Read the rest »

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Does the Palace Guard Have No Clothes?

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 14th, 2009 5:30 AM |

I eagerly await the soon to be released 2008 Annual Report of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA). Prior to its release and in light of all the turmoil on Wall Street over the last 24 months, I thought it may be timely to review the mission and some recent history of the “palace guard,” known as FINRA. From the FINRA website, we learn:

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), is the largest non-governmental regulator for all securities firms doing business in the United States. All told, FINRA oversees nearly 5,000 brokerage firms, about 173,000 branch offices and approximately 656,000 registered securities representatives.

Created in July 2007 through the consolidation of NASD and the member regulation, enforcement and arbitration functions of the New York Stock Exchange, FINRA is dedicated to investor protection and market integrity through effective and efficient regulation and complementary compliance and technology-based services.

While FINRA promotes investor protection and market integrity, the simple fact is there are still thousands of investors with an estimated hundred BILLION dollars locked up in Auction Rate Securities. The ARS market has been designated as a fraud. FINRA not only did not protect the ARS investors, but participated in the ARS market as an investor themselves. At year end 2006, FINRA had a $647 million position in ARS. Did they sell them? When? To whom? What price? If they did sell their ARS position, did they possess material non-public information and act upon it? Will the 2008 FINRA Annual Report provide answers? I can only hope. Aside from a few state attorneys general, who is truly looking to help these investors?

FINRA touches virtually every aspect of the securities business—from registering and educating industry participants to examining securities firms; writing rules; enforcing those rules and the federal securities laws; informing and educating the investing public; providing trade reporting and other industry utilities; and administering the largest dispute resolution forum for investors and registered firms. It also performs market regulation under contract for The NASDAQ Stock Market, the American Stock Exchange, the International Securities Exchange and the Chicago Climate Exchange. Read the rest »

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Good News and Bad News: The Plot Thickens

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 13th, 2009 6:39 PM |

It seems as if Wall Street banks are releasing “surprisingly positive” earnings in stealth fashion these days. Goldman Sachs was expected to release 1st quarter 2009 earnings tomorrow. Well, Goldman just released that they “blew the doors off” the building in a very explosive and positive fashion. Bloomberg reports Goldman Sachs to Sell $5 Billion in Stock, Repay TARP:

The New York-based bank earned $1.81 billion, or $3.39 a share, in the first quarter as a surge in trading revenue outweighed asset writedowns. The results beat the $1.64 a share estimate of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The earnings were driven by a sizable increase in trading activity which reads as a major gain in market share. With Bear, Lehman, and Merrill all gone and Citi and BofA in the hospital, the crowd at Goldman is sowing while the sun shines. What does that mean? For those who want or need to “play,” Goldman is now one of the few shops truly open for biz. The price to “get in the game” just went up and Goldman’s franchise is clearly benefiting:

Goldman Sachs benefited as the gap between what banks pay to buy fixed-income securities and the price at which they sell, the so-called bid-ask spread, almost doubled to 19 basis points in six months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Over and above the earnings, Goldman has sent a clear signal to Uncle Sam requesting him to leave the Goldman “casino.” With Goldman’s earnings power clearly defined, the firm has announced its intention to raise more equity capital and pay back the TARP money it received last Fall. It will make that equity raise after the release of the Bank Stress Tests at the end of the month. Uncle Sam’s intentions to oversee compensation, business practices, and the like is the antithesis of how Goldman operates. While the actual cost of the government TARP money is cheap, the unknown costs are enormous. Goldman has no interest in maintaining those risks. Read the rest »

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No TARP For You!!

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 13th, 2009 1:49 PM |

No TARP for you!

Who can ever forget the Seinfeld episode featuring the Soup Nazi? Well, in that same vein, the insurance company Genworth Financial was just summarily thrown out of the Treasury “line” to receive TARP funds. The WSJ reports, Genworth Financial Shares Slump on TARP Ineligibility:

Shares of Genworth Financial Inc. fell as much as 31% Monday as investors responded to the insurer’s late-Thursday announcement that it is ineligible to participate in the Treasury’s Capital Purchase Plan because it missed a deadline that Treasury won’t extend.

The mere fact that Genworth, Hartford Financial, Protective Life, or any other insurer are requesting government funds is another version of the “putting perfume on a pig” play we saw with the FASB relaxation of the mark-to-market. Why is that?

The TARP (Troubled Asset Recovery Program) was designed by Congress for banks needing increased capital. If investment banks can become bank holding companies, why not insurance companies as well? Perhaps, the next thing you know, we’ll have plumbers designating themselves as banks. How about construction companies? Maybe a bakery or two? Anybody for a newly defined U.S. Financial Blogging Bank? Where do I sign? We could all use some “soup.” Read the rest »

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Board of Health Condemns Due to Moral Hazards

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 13th, 2009 11:05 AM |

danger-toxic-hazard The best organizations are managed not only for today but for tomorrow. What do I mean by that? Great organizations assess risks, develop talent, diversify products, and grow market share. Aside from those basic business tenets, the best organizations respond well in times of crisis.

Every business and organization is ultimately a reflection of its people. To that end, the depth and quality of the people are the single greatest factors in the long term success of the organization.

Any individual or organization would relish developing a system that generates untold success and then automates the process. Neither business nor life works that way. Change is constant. How organizations proactively stay ahead of change and respond to change is paramount in succeeding in business and life.

The best sports organizations have developed a deep bench of talent both on and off the field. When players or executives leave – as they always do – the general manager moves another body in and the team does not miss a beat. The same scenario occurs in the best companies. This transition process is part of the culture of the organization. Read the rest »

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That’s Where the Money Is

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 13th, 2009 6:47 AM |

On the heels of the fraud known as Enron, Congress passed legislation requiring CEOs to validate the integrity of their financial reporting. This legislation, Sarbanes-Oxley, and its effectiveness are still hotly contested. Is it universally accepted? Does it truly promote best practices within companies and across industries? Does it produce results? Well, the fact of the matter is that it is the law of the land. However, what good is a law if it isn’t applied? I can count on one hand, without need of my thumb, claims by law enforcement authorities of companies’ violating Sarbanes-Oxley.

Will Sarbanes-Oxley be dusted off and put to use now? The Financial Times reports that it will not be for lack of opportunity that Sarbanes-Oxley is not used. In regard to bank earnings, TARP investigator Neil Barofsky offers:

“I hope we don’t find a single bank that’s cooked their books to try to get money but I don’t think that’s going to be the case,” said Mr Barofsky, who has been dubbed the “Tarp cop”.

If this is in fact the case, what about some perp walks? Is white collar crime still an activity tolerated by the system? Who is providing the cover? Are the perpetrators in bed with the legislators? Don’t tell me that cooking the books is a victimless crime. Every taxpayer is being victimized in terms of lessened credit, higher taxes, a growing deficit, and outrageous fees. Victimless? I don’t think so. Read the rest »

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Audio Recording: NoQuarter Radio’s “Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle” April 12, 2009

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 12th, 2009 9:06 PM |

In case you missed LD’s Sunday night radio show, just click on the Play button below for the audio recording. Once the playback has started, you can fast forward or rewind to any portion of the show by clicking at any point along the play bar.

It was a wonderful show with special guest George Rieger, Chief Investment Strategist of Greenwich Investment Management.

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