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NQR’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle: America’s Open Mic

Posted by Larry Doyle on January 9th, 2010 4:18 PM |

UPDATE: This episode of NQR’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle has concluded. You can listen to a recording of the episode in its entirety by clicking the play button on the audio player provided below. Once the audio begins, you can advance or rewind to any portion of the episode by clicking at any point along the play bar.

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America is talking . . . loudly.

Washington and Wall Street may think they can continue to play “business as usual,” but the times they are a-changin.

Why are incumbents from both parties quitting? Why are select previously friendly members of the media starting to turn on the administration? Why are selected politicos even starting to turn on senior members of their own party?

The answer to all the above is the same: America is speaking up like never before. America is fed up with the standard pandering and posturing put forth by banksters, regulators, and politicians.

So much to talk about. So many issues across so many sectors of our economic landscape. Please join me from 8-9pm ET this Sunday evening, January 10th for NQR’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle as I provide America’s Open Mic.

Read the rest »


David Rosenberg Provides Sense on Cents

Posted by Larry Doyle on January 9th, 2010 1:25 PM |

Those working within any industry are typically restrained in how aggressively they can voice their opinions. If I were still working on Wall street, there is no way I would be able to speak as openly as I do via Sense on Cents. That is simply reality. In similar fashion, those who move from the sell-side (traditional Wall Street banks and brokers) to the buy-side (money managers) are similarly unleashed to more aggressively provide truth, transparency, and integrity on the economy and the markets.

In this vein, I am thrilled to introduce our readers to David Rosenberg, formerly of Bank of America/Merrill Lynch and now Chief Economist and Strategist at Gluskin, Sheff, one of Canada’s top wealth management firms. Read the rest »


January 9, 2010: Week in Review

Posted by Larry Doyle on January 9th, 2010 11:37 AM |

The economy continues to send very mixed signals. The market screams like a scolded dog. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Welcome to our weekly Sense on Cents Week in Review. I will provide a streamlined recap of the major economic news and the month-to-date market moves.  Let’s navigate.

ECONOMIC DATA: Read the rest »


John Williams Sees Unemployment at 22%

Posted by Larry Doyle on January 8th, 2010 3:15 PM |

What is the real rate of unemployment?

The traditional rate of unemployment, commonly regarded as the U-3, is currently 10%.

Very often, though, we hear reference to the underemployment rate, that is the U-6 rate. The U-6 rate currently sits at 17.3%. This measure encompasses those individuals who desire more hours, are working below their skill set, or are discouraged and have exited the labor pool.

Thanks to SG, I was introduced today to a noted economist who has been tracking an even more encompassing measure of unemployment. Who is this individual? John Williams who operates Shadow Government Statistics.

Walter J. “John” Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth’s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.

Williams has developed an even more comprehensive measure of unemployment, known as the SGS Alternate. What does this include? Read the rest »


Bear Stearns: R.I.P

Posted by Larry Doyle on January 8th, 2010 12:09 PM |

As of today, Bear Stearns is no longer.

What? I bet you’re thinking Bear was taken over by JP Morgan in spring 2008 and ceased to exist when the takeover was approved a few months later. You’d be right. I am right also.  How so?

As with many mergers and takeovers, the name of the acquired firm continues to be utilized within certain divisions. That is exactly the case with Bear Stearns, as those two storied names continued to be utilized in the Private Client Services unit at JP Morgan. Until today. Read the rest »


Unemployment Report: January 8, 2010

Posted by Larry Doyle on January 8th, 2010 9:09 AM |

The widely anticipated January Unemployment Report covering the month of December was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .

I. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
August: 9.4%
September: 9.7%
October: 9.8%
November: 10.2%…revised to 10.1%
December: 10%
– January Consensus Expectation: 10.0%
– January Actual: 10.0%

>> LD’s comments: unchanged on the month, in line with expectations. The November rate was revised from 10.2% to 10.1%. The underemployment rate worsened to a rate of 17.3%  from 17.2%. How do I read this? The rate of decline may be flattening, but there is absolutely no reason to believe this is destined to improve, especially anytime soon. The fact that the underemployment rate inched higher is a stronger sign as to the real health (or illness) of the labor market. Read the rest »


TCW vs Jeff Gundlach, et al: Getting Ugly Early

Posted by Larry Doyle on January 7th, 2010 8:06 PM |

Jeff Gundlach

Jeff Gundlach

It is not often that the top bond manager on Wall Street gets fired. What prompted the unceremonious departure of Jeff Gundlach from Trust Company of the West?

Stories of financial intrigue are always riveting. The real deal of authentic Wall Street financial conspiracies and resulting legal actions are much more riveting. Did Jeff Gundlach and other defendants steal a wealth of TCW proprietary information prior to being shown the door? Did Gundlach, et al commit fraud and a breach of fiduciary duty while at TCW? Did TCW plan to confiscate revenue generated by Gundlach and team?

What are we to make of TCW management’s allegation that they found inappropriate contraband in Gundlach’s office the day he was fired. What sort of contraband? Marijuana, drug paraphernalia, a collection of sexual devices, and hardcore pornographic magazines. Read the rest »


Healthcare Reform To Make You Ill

Posted by Larry Doyle on January 7th, 2010 4:29 PM |

A loyal Sense on Cents reader asked me to comment on the dramatic rise in health-care premiums highlighted in an article, Soaring Health Premium Just Makes Me Feel Sick, from the Irish Independent. The author, Martina Devlin, writes of an individual in Ireland who just received her new health-care premium. Devlin offers:

I SERIOUSLY debated cancelling my private health insurance recently. When the renewal notice arrived in the post I did a double-take at the size of the bill, cross-checked the increase — which was almost 20pc — and gulped.

Value for money it wasn’t. In fact, it struck me as a hefty charge to cover what I regarded as an insubstantial risk. You can never discount the danger, but I’m still reasonably young and healthy (touch wood).

Reviewing the article immediately reminded me of a conversation that I had with my wife’s cousin, a doctor in a community hospital. I spoke with him over the holidays and asked him his take on the propsects for healthcare reform and legislation here in our country.

His take was as follows: Read the rest »


Raymond James Apology for Auction-Rate Securities

Posted by Larry Doyle on January 7th, 2010 1:25 PM |

A friend of Sense on Cents informed me the other day that Tom James, chairman and chief executive of Raymond James, issued an apology to the firm’s clients involved in the auction-rate securities fiasco. Wow! Given my keen interest in this topic and my empathy for the investors who have been abused by the industry, my heart raced. An apology by the head of a firm the size and scope of Raymond James is deeply meaningful.

Upon review of the article, Tom James Apologizes for Auction Rate Securities Purchases, published in the Tampa Bay Business Journal, I witnessed that it was written January 5th. Breaking news!  Then I realized it was written January 5th but 2009!

Regardless of the fact that the article was published a year ago, I continued reading intrigued to learn more about this situation as it stood a year ago. The Tampa Bay Business Journal reported Tom James saying: Read the rest »


How Tim Geithner Screwed the American Taxpayer

Posted by Larry Doyle on January 7th, 2010 9:31 AM |

Tim Geithner, then head of the New York Fed, blinked and screwed the American taxpayer out of billions of dollars in the process. How so?

Geithner and his cronies in Washington have misrepresented–if not outright lied–about the payments to both domestic and foreign banks in settling exposures to then failing AIG. While politicians and pundits alike will reference the precarious nature of the time and heat of the moment to defend Geithner and his cronies, the simple fact is the settlement of the AIG swaps at 100 cents on the dollar was nothing short of one of the greatest heists in our country’s history.

This heist transferred multiple billions of dollars from the American taxpayer to the likes of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Societe Generale, and many more domestic and foreign banks as well. Read the rest »


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Larry Doyle

Larry Doyle A Wall Street veteran's views and instincts on the markets, economy, and all things financial.







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