RSS Feed
Twitter
Facebook
Email
HomeIs the Stimulus “Stimulating?”
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 20th, 2009 5:30 AM |
As I referenced on my radio show last evening (note: you can listen to an audio recording of the show from the BlogTalkRadio player in the right sidebar), China’s economy is benefitting from economic stimulus enacted by its government. Well, the U.S. government also enacted a major Stimulus Package in early February. How is our package doing? Is it impacting the economy? Our economy certainly does not seem to be benefitting significantly from any government stimulus.
I wrote on February 7th that Martin Feldstein, renowned Harvard economist who sits on Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board, called the Stimulus Package An $800 Billion Mistake.
Feldstein’s concerns about the Stimulus as reported by the Washington Post, focused on several items:
1. On the spending side, the stimulus package is full of well-intended items that, unfortunately, are not likely to do much for employment.
2. The largest proposed outlays amount to just writing unrestricted checks to state governments.
3. The plan to finance health insurance premiums for the unemployed would actually increase unemployment by giving employers an incentive to lay off workers rather than pay health premiums during a time of weak demand.
4. A large fraction of the stimulus proposal is devoted to infrastructure projects that will spend out very slowly, not with the speed needed to help the economy in 2009 and 2010.
5. The problem with the current stimulus plan is not that it is too big but that it delivers too little extra employment and income for such a large fiscal deficit.
Let’s see how business executives view the rollout of the Stimulus Package. Would they agree or disagree with Feldstein’s concerns? (more…)
I Need That Money More Than You Do
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 19th, 2009 9:15 PM |
Cartoon by Steve Kelley, The Times-Picayune
Audio Recording of NQR’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle for April 19, 2009
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 19th, 2009 9:09 PM |
In case you missed LD’s Sunday night radio show, just click on the Play button below for the audio recording. Once the playback has started, you can fast forward or rewind to any portion of the show by clicking at any point along the play bar.
Larry’s special guest was Chris Lowney, author of Heroic Leadership: Best Practices from a 450-Year-Old Company that Changed the World
Don’t Try This at Home
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 18th, 2009 5:08 PM |
Have you ever watched a stuntman spin a sports car in a sharp 180 degree maneuver? Many stunts come with the advance warning: Don’t Try This at Home.
Not that the current actions of both the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve are stunts, but their maneuvers also come with a serious warning signal . . . and it reads: INFLATION!!
Given the doubling in size of the Fed’s balance sheet, if and when the economy catches, the multiplier effect on our domestic money supply will be akin to throwing lighter fluid and a match on a field full of hay. That inferno can create a scenario worse than our current economic predicament.
The WSJ reports:
“The key to preventing inflation will be reversing the programs, reducing reserves, and raising interest rates in a timely fashion,” he (Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn) said.
Reversing the programs? With all due respect, if people think the Fed or anybody else is uniquely qualified to drain trillions in liquidity from our markets in a precise manner prior to inflation running rampant, then they are sadly mistaken. Please remember that one of the biggest factors in determining the rate of inflation is the mere expectation of inflation itself. In so many words, our economy may start to experience inflation prior to changes in certain fundamentals in the economy.
While the WSJ reports, Fed’s No. 2 Allays Worries About Stimulus, please remember that any medication that is overused, if not unintentionally abused, can be very dangerous if not fatal. We need look no further than the use of CDS (credit default swaps). CDS used properly provide a valid means of hedging risk. Similarly, increasing the money supply via an increase in the use of the Fed’s balance sheet and assorted Treasury programs can be an appropriate medication.
However, have you ever heard a patient indicate an exact point in time when they knew they were using medication inappropriately, if not in an abusive fashion? Have you ever witnessed a patient who has misused medication to be able to turn his life around on a dime?
I appreciate Mr. Kohn’s confidence in the Fed’s abilities, but neither he nor the Fed have experience in dealing with a situation like this.
Don’t think for a second that the cure can’t be worse than the disease.
LD
Citigroup’s Earnings: More Fuzzy Math
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 18th, 2009 9:21 AM |
In reviewing bank earnings this week, I truly get the sense with a number of institutions that they determine just how much they want or need to outperform analyst expectations and then they figure out how to “manage” the books in order to get there.
This “managed earnings” process can be played for an extended period, but ultimately the earnings – or more importantly “hidden losses” – come out in the wash.
Citigroup played this game yesterday. The NY Times reports, After Year of Losses, Citigroup Finds a Profit. I give the Times credit; they did not report that Citigroup generated a profit, but that they found it. Where did they find it? The Times offers:
Like several other banks that reported surprisingly strong results this week, Citigroup used some creative accounting, all of it legal, to bolster its bottom line at a pivotal moment.
Citi utilized creative accounting supported by the pressure applied by Congress on the FASB. Where is the pressure applied by the SEC and FINRA on behalf of investors? Isn’t it only fair that somebody speaks up for investors? Is the SEC and FINRA in bed with Congress to “play the game?” Let’s move on.
The top rated banking analyst on the street chimes in: (more…)
Who’s Minding the Store?
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 17th, 2009 10:48 AM |
Despite the fact that the Auction Rate Securities market totally froze in February 2008, Citigroup is accused of fraudulently marketing and selling the product even in August 2008. Bloomberg reports, Citigroup Accused of Selling Disguised Auction Bonds.
Just as you never find only one mouse or roach, to think this is the only incident of Citigroup selling disguised Auction Rate Securities would be amazingly naive. If Citigroup were engaged in this fraud in August 2008, I would also bet that other banks were doing it as well.
Regrettably, people in desperate straits do desperate things. Similarly, firms desperately in need of cash will also do desperate things. How many other investors purchased disguised bonds? Or, I should say, were sold disguised bonds?
How is it that a situation like this occurs? Internal cops, compliance and sales management, are asleep at the wheel. External cops, our friends at FINRA, are also asleep at the wheel. Who headed FINRA at that point? Our current SEC head, Mary Schapiro. (more…)
“White House Ties to Wall Street Doom Bank Rescue”
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 17th, 2009 6:37 AM |
None other than Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University provided a direct shot across Washington’s and Wall Street’s bow today. As I read Bloomberg’s Stiglitz Says White House Ties to Wall Street Doom Bank Rescue, the little voice in my head kept repeating, ” he’s right” or “I agree.” I am reluctant to copy and paste entire articles, but this one is so important that I feel compelled and will add commentary or links as warranted.
The Obama administration’s plan to fix the U.S. banking system is destined to fail because the programs have been designed to help Wall Street rather than create a viable financial system, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said.
“All the ingredients they have so far are weak, and there are several missing ingredients,” Stiglitz said in an interview. The people who designed the plans are “either in the pocket of the banks or they’re incompetent.”
The Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, isn’t large enough to recapitalize the banking system, and the administration hasn’t been direct in addressing that shortfall, he said. Stiglitz said there are conflicts of interest at the White House because some of Obama’s advisers have close ties to Wall Street.
Seems as if Stiglitz would agree with How Wall Street Bought Washington.
“We don’t have enough money, they don’t want to go back to Congress, and they don’t want to do it in an open way and they don’t want to get control” of the banks, a set of constraints that will guarantee failure, Stiglitz said.
The return to taxpayers from the TARP is as low as 25 cents on the dollar, he said. “The bank restructuring has been an absolute mess.” (more…)
Join us NOW for Sense on Cents Central Station
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 16th, 2009 8:20 PM |
***UPDATE: The Live Chat event has ended, but you can scroll through the topics we discussed by clicking on the “Replay” icon on the chat window at the end of this post.***
Join us right now for a few hours of written Q/A and live chat with your resident host, Larry Doyle. We can address a wide range of issues, including: transparency and quality of earnings, Goldman’s initiative to pay back TARP, the April 15th Tea Parties, market performance this week, month, and year to date, developments overseas, the outlook for our financial regulatory structure, issues of personal finance, career planning, or anything else on your mind.
Mary Schapiro Meet Stump Merrill
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 16th, 2009 4:30 PM |
President Obama was elected primarily on one theme: change. Many private and public sectors need change, but perhaps none more than our banking and regulatory oversight. Barack said as much in late February:
Obama leveled a broad indictment of the industry, saying the current financial crisis occurred when “Wall Street wrongly presumed the markets would continuously rise and traded in complex financial products without fully evaluating their risks.” But he also blamed government regulators for not adequately protecting consumers.
Obama further offered:
“strong financial markets require clear rules of the road, not to hinder financial institutions, but to protect consumers and investors, and ultimately to keep those financial institutions strong.”
To this point, who could not agree with Barack’s assessment and designs. However, if we go back to mid-January, why did he select the head of the Wall Street self-regulatory organization, FINRA, to oversee the SEC? FINRA has been widely critiqued for being soft on overseeing the very institutions at the heart of our current economic disaster.
Again today, we hear about FINRA’s incompetence in a Bloomberg report on the investigation of Stanford Financial. Bloomberg reports: (more…)
