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ARS Investor Makes Public Plea

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 3rd, 2009 2:02 PM |

On the heels of Bloomberg breaking the news of FINRA’s investment in Auction Rate Securities, I have received a number of e-mails from ARS investors thanking me for my pursuit in publicizing that information. One e-mail in particular touched me. This investor purchased ARS from Oppenheimer. His e-mail to attorneys general around the country and major media outlets is powerful. I share his questions; they deserve answers. With the writer’s permission: (more…)

NoQuarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle Tonight at 8PM

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 3rd, 2009 7:38 AM |

UPDATE: The show has concluded, but you can listen to a recording of it in its entirety by clicking the Play button on the audio player below. Once the playback has started, you can fast forward or rewind to any portion of the show by clicking at any point along the play bar. Topics this evening included: the Chrysler bankruptcy situation, Bank Stress Tests, and Auction Rate Securities.

  

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Please join me Sunday evening from 8-9 p.m. ET for NoQuarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. The developments in the markets, economy, global finance, Wall Street, and Washington are occurring at breakneck speed. I will try to slow things down a bit and provide a sense of perspective. What did we learn in the markets over the last week and what does that mean for the weeks and months ahead? We will address a wide range of issues, including: the auto industry, government bond market, and economic statistics.

These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere! What is on your mind? What would you like to address? Please share your questions and thoughts by calling in to (347) 677-0792, and also join our live chat room, which I’ll start up about 10 minutes before the show begins.

Many thanks to Larry Johnson and the rest of the team at NoQuarterUSA blog for providing such a vibrant vehicle as NoQuarter Radio. I look forward to having you join me Sunday evening as we collectively navigate the economic landscape!!

LD

Is Barack Obama Going Tony Soprano? UPDATE>>

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 2nd, 2009 11:07 AM |

“One of my clients was directly threatened by the White House.”

That’s a quote, folks, from a lawyer representing firms which lent Chrysler money on behalf of their clients, including pension funds, teachers, labor unions, college endowments, et al.

Threatening creditors may be common practice in the underworld. In the world of business and politics, commonly accepted rules of law, business practices and ethics are widely accepted and adjudicated by the courts to prevent abuse. Did the White House just abuse the Constitution in the process of engaging Chrysler’s non-TARP creditors? Tom Lauria, an attorney with White & Case representing a few non-TARP Chrysler creditors, believes the White House did exactly that.

The 10 minute interview (link provided at end of story) that Lauria gave yesterday morning to Detroit radio station WJR’s Frank Beckmann is a MUST LISTEN. (UPDATE: We now have a YouTube audio of the Frank Beckmann-Tom Lauria radio interview. THANK YOU Paul V!!)

Lauria offers, “I represent one less investor today than I represented yesterday. One of my clients was directly threatened by the White House and in essence compelled to withdraw its opposition to the deal under the threat that the full force of the White House press corps would destroy its reputation.”  

Wow!!! Is the press corps so in bed with the White House that it will do its dirty work? Will other creditors fall in line under the pressure of this threat? Is Lauria’s analysis credible?

I believe the answer to all of these questions is yes!!    

In my April 2009 Market Review: Brave New World I wrote:

Companies, consumers, and investors will be forced to adapt to a regular presence of Uncle Sam. He is not a good business partner.

Our economic landscape just entered a whole new realm. I strongly recommend that you listen to the audio recording of Frank Beckmann’s interview with Tom Lauria (special thanks to Daisyjane for the link). 

UPDATE: Here’s the YouTube audio so you don’t have to leave this site. Thank you, again, to Paul.

 

LD

See also: “White House uses strong arm tactics to extort concessions from lenders,” via Memeorandum.com.

California’s $100,000 Club

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 2nd, 2009 9:10 AM |

Hat tip to MC for sharing with us an initiative of the California Foundation for Fiscal Responsibility. The CFFR was founded two years ago to develop transparency in the California pension system. Make no mistake, current and future pension obligations at the state and local level will impact almost every aspect of our lives. The current deficits in these pensions funds and the increasing obligations as our population ages will serve as a chokehold on future generations. This same dynamic is playing out at the federal level as well. However, let’s focus on California.

I am all for longstanding civil servants receiving pension benefits. However, the largesse that has been contracted in certain circumstances is anything but fiscally responsible. I commend the CFFR for working to provide transparency on this topic. Let’s dig deeper. As the Sacramento Bee highlights, Pension Watchdog Puts Database of 5,000 Calpers (California Public Employees Retirement System) Online.

Information is critically important for fiscal discipline. Transparency in the pursuit, collection, and dissemination of that information is a cornerstone of good government. Regrettably, too often our public servants conflict themselves in currying personal favors while obligated to perform their public service. To that end, I commend CFFR for shedding light on this critically important topic:

“We feel it’s time for transparency on this issue,” said CFFR vice-president Marcia Fritz. “In the current economic climate, it’s important that taxpayers know what kind of pensions our public employees are receiving and what the budget implications will be.”

CFFR was founded in 2007 by Keith Richman, a former LA County Republican assemblyman. 

Richman says the foundation’s sole purpose is to highlight  the skyrocketing costs of public employee retirements.

I am not looking to promote personal witch hunts. I am looking to promote fiscal responsibility.  I would hope that every state and local municipality develops an initiative like the CFFR. To that end, please question your local representatives as to how many individuals are collecting six figure pensions. Share with them the fact that in California over 4,800 individuals have six figure pensions. In fact, Bruce Malkenhorst, a municipal government retiree from Vernon, CA is “collecting” a cool half million bucks a year in retirement. An article from Forbes Magazine back in 2007 sheds further light on the municipality of Vernon, California:

Welcome to Paradise
by Evan Hessel 02.26.07

The city fathers of Vernon, Calif. run their tiny town like a family business, with unchecked power, pay and perks.

Four miles south of downtown Los Angeles sits the city of Vernon, a five-square-mile industrial enclave of meatpacking plants, warehouses and paint-mixing factories. There’s not much to see, but smells are plentiful, courtesy of a rendering factory that boils the dead pets of southern California into grease and high-protein animal feed.

Only 92 people live in Vernon. There are no parks, schools, libraries, health clinics or grocery stores. The only four restaurants close by 4 p.m. By sundown the 44,000 workers who commute here have all fled the stench.

Vernon’s leaders like it that way. California’s tiniest city, if you want to call it a city, is one of the nation’s most lasting and efficient political machines, run almost entirely for the benefit of a handful of rarely opposed, extremely well-paid politicians. Vernon should have been subsumed long ago into the surrounding city of L.A, but its independence is a strange and stark example of how a democracy can become a dynasty.

Vernon is run by two families: the Malburgs and the Malkenhorsts, neither of which agreed to be interviewed. The bespectacled Leonis C. Malburg, 77, whose grandfather founded Vernon in 1905, has been mayor for 33 years. Bruce Malkenhorst, 71, was for 32 years the city administrator as well as clerk, finance director, treasurer, redevelopment agency secretary and chief executive of the utility Vernon Light & Power. The city was reportedly paying him $600,000 a year, more than twice what L.A.’s mayor earns, until he resigned all posts unexpectedly and without public announcement in 2005. By most accounts Malkenhorst still pulls the strings. His appointed successor is his 42-year-old son, Bruce Jr.

Theirs is a benign dictatorship. Who would run against them? Outsiders hoping to move into town are denied housing permits and Vernon’s 32 houses and apartments are owned by the city and leased to its employees for as little as $150 per month. In 1980 Malkenhorst Sr. evicted a former cop from his Vernonowned house after he ran against Malkenhorst’s favored candidates. Last year the state Superior Court forced Malkenhorst Jr. to move ahead with an election he had derailed on the grounds that the three challengers had moved in illegally. Once the votes were counted, the incumbents won anyway—in a landslide.

While many state unions do not appreciate the release of information by the CFFR, I believe every state should publicly release it. Watchdog groups should not be forced to request it. To that end, I encourage everybody who reads this post to share the link to CFFR with your local reps and specifically highlight California’s $100,000 Club.

LD

Bank Stress Test Results Postponed Until May 7th

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 1st, 2009 5:21 PM |

Cartoon by Tom Toles, Washington Post

Deflation? Tell That to Colgate and P&G

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 1st, 2009 1:09 PM |

Analysts and economists are pointing toward a near term decline in prices while raising concerns about inflation down the road. Disinflation (a slower pace of inflation) or deflation (an actual decline in prices) are a crushing blow to a company’s bottom line. That said, companies are incentivized to discount prices in order to move inventory. Consumer discretionary items are much more subject to discounted prices than consumer staples.

My better half came home from the supermarket the other day commenting on definite increases in price on a wide array of basic staples. To that end, I am not surprised to read that Colgate and P&G are raising prices. Can price increases in the face of rising unemployment stick? Will consumers who have traditionally bought these brands change product loyalty? The WSJ reports, P&G, Colgate Hit by Consumer Thrift.

If price checking is not already part of your regular exercise when shopping, it should be. Make no mistake, raising prices at this juncture is a high risk proposition for Colgate, P&G, or any other company. However, do not be surprised to see more slight price increases on staples along with slight declines in product sizes.

What prompted some of these price increases? The WSJ reports:

To offset higher commodity prices and global currency swings, P&G and Colgate raised prices in the quarter through March. P&G said higher prices increased its total sales by 7%. Colgate raised prices by 8%.

Despite pressure from retailers to lower prices for cash-strapped shoppers, neither company conceded much willingness to do so.

Higher prices hurt sales volumes, especially in emerging markets, but still paid off for the companies.

“While painful, pricing to protect the structural economics of our business is the right thing to do,” P&G Chief Financial Officer Jon Moeller said.

Analysts said higher prices could backfire. “Investors are certainly concerned by unit-volume trends, especially on the Procter side, and wondering whether they’re going to have to lower price points or kick up promotions,” said Bill Pecoriello, CEO of ConsumerEdge Research LLC, a consumer-products research boutique in Stamford, Conn.

While impulse buyers like myself are a retailer’s dream, it is obviously prudent to comparison shop. However, if we see ongoing increases in commodity prices and volatility in currencies, (both of which are likely to occur in the face of massive deficit spending), these price increases may be more the norm than the exception.

Don’t be surprised if stockpiling of goods becomes a prudent discipline.

LD

Statement From Non-Tarp Lenders To Chrysler

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 1st, 2009 8:52 AM |

In my April 2009 Market Review, I commented on how Uncle Sam is not a good business partner.  Business Wire issued the following statement from Chrysler’s Non-TARP Lenders: 

NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–As of last night’s deadline, we were part of a group of approximately 20 relatively small organizations; we represent many of the country’s teachers unions, major pension and retirement plans and school endowments who have invested through us in senior secured loans to Chrysler. Combined, these loans total about $1 billion. None of us have taken a dime in TARP money.

As much as anyone, we want to see Chrysler emerge from its current situation as a viable American company, and we are committed to doing what we can to help. Indeed, we have made significant concessions toward this end – although we have been systematically precluded from engaging in direct discussions or negotiations with the government; instead, we have been forced to communicate through an obviously conflicted intermediary: a group of banks that have received billions of TARP funds.

What created this much-publicized impasse? Under long recognized legal and business principles, junior creditors are ordinarily not entitled to anything until senior secured creditors like our investors are repaid in full. Nevertheless, to facilitate Chrysler’s rehabilitation, we offered to take a 40% haircut even though some groups lower down in the legal priority chain in Chrysler debt were being given recoveries of up to 50% or more and being allowed to take out billions of dollars. In contrast, over at General Motors, senior secured lenders are being left unimpaired with 100% recoveries, while even GM’s unsecured bondholders are receiving a far better recovery than we are as Chrysler’s first lien secured lenders.

Our offer has been flatly rejected or ignored. The fact is, in this process and in its earnest effort to ensure the survival of Chrysler and the well being of the company’s employees, the government has risked overturning the rule of law and practices that have governed our world-leading bankruptcy code for decades.

We have a fiduciary responsibility to all those teachers, pensioners, retirees and others who have entrusted their money to us. We are legally bound to protect their interests. Much as we empathize with Chrysler’s other stakeholders, the capital is just not ours to contribute to their cause by accepting a deal that is outside the well established legal framework and cannot be rationalized as being commercially reasonable.

We are continuing to discuss our position with the United States Treasury. We have made a proposal which we earnestly believe is fair and would appropriately recognize our legal position.

As President Obama implied yesterday, it is likely that Chrysler will have to file Chapter 11 whether or not all lenders agree to any particular proposal. Chapter 11 is often used to help implement an agreed deal and dispose of unwanted legacy liabilities. We are hopeful and optimistic that we will reach a positive resolution of our issues so that all stakeholders will move forward together to implement Chrysler’s “quick trip” restructuring in an un-contested proceeding. Our Group will never initiate a bankruptcy filing on Chrysler – that is a decision for the Company and the Administration to make.

As we all appreciate, laws are the foundation of our economy and society. Despite recent travails, our country remains the economic envy of the world and the United States remains a vital engine of global growth. The rule of law made it that way. We urge that people remember this and not succumb to unproductive and unwarranted finger pointing.

Sincerely,

The Committee of Chrysler Non-Tarp Lenders

This statement speaks for itself. My only comment is in regard to the creditors’ final assertion. Chipping away, if not crushing, the rule of law in our economy and society will come at a VERY HIGH price. I believe government representatives are misinformed and unappreciative of that price. I encourage investors and the public at large to remain vigilant and vociferous on this issue.

Please start by sharing your your thoughts and sentiments here. 

LD  

April 2009 Market Review: Brave New World

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 1st, 2009 5:00 AM |

Does the economic activity in April 2009 represent a turning point in the recession which started in December 2007? Does the continuing rebound in the equity markets represent a bright light at the end of the tunnel or merely a rebound from a very oversold market? Have global risks abated or are they being masked by massive government intervention? Let’s get after it.

april-market-review

In my opinion, we are in the early stages of transition to a new global economic dynamic. That process includes:

1. Strict discipline in underwriting. Banks are forced to underwrite to own as opposed to underwrite to sell. The shadow banking system (loans originated to be securitized and sold) is dead as we knew it. Banks have certain assets marked way too cheaply while also carrying plenty of fraudulently underwritten loans worth far less than their mark. Growth potential for the economy as a whole will remain constricted by a lessened flow of credit. There will be a clear distinction in companies which are winners and losers in this process.  

2. Lessened consumer demand on a going forward basis.   

3. Challenges for companies relying on debt financing and opportunities for companies generating free cash flow. The model based on leveraged finance is dead and not soon to return. Automotive companies need a 13 million rate of unit sales to break even. Without a shadow banking system, I don’t see this happening.

4. Opportunities for consumers buying homes. Don’t expect a rebound in home price appreciation as foreclosures, which were forestalled by banks and Freddie and Fannie, will add supply to the housing market. Housing may stabilize, but I do not think it will improve given the glut of unsold homes. 

5. Continued increase in unemployment will keep consumers cautious.

6. Many analysts focused on inventory drawdown in the latest GDP report as being a positive for future growth. Why didn’t analysts highlight the fact that consumer spending was actually a positive 2.2%?  Does that statistic represent a return of the consumer? In my opinion, NO. The positive consumer spending was primarily focused on massive price discounts offered in January and February to move product after anemic holiday sales. Personal spending for March was released yesterday morning and came in at -.2%. March retail sales were a surprisingly weak -1.1%.

7. Government intervention in markets may be viewed as necessary in the short term, but a persistent government presence in markets and industries comes with unknown, and in my opinion, very high costs. We are seeing heightened challenges in banking, insurance, automotive, and soon health care, energy, and education. Companies, consumers, and investors will be forced to adapt to a regular presence of Uncle Sam. He is not a good business partner. 

8. There is a very distinct shift in economic power towards China and with it a shift in political power, as well. I believe it is a question of when – not if – in terms of a major European country defaulting on its debt and requiring a rescue from the EU and/or  IMF.

9.  I still see a steady dose of analysts and economists forecasting future economic activity based on past models. I think they are missing the big picture.  I believe we need to forecast economic activity based upon traditional bank lending. If the government persists in trying to fill a void which naturally is not there, the risk involved in that undertaking is hyperinflation. 

Again, I am happy the markets have rebounded from the lows of early March but in looking forward I see a dramatically different economic landscape than our recent past. People who are able to adjust to that will do fine. People who are trying to maintain a lifestyle predicated on the economy of 2003-2007 will be very frustrated.

As far as my market call, I remain very concerned about the prevailing level of interest rates. I think the market will test the resolve of the Fed to continue to effectively overpay for mortgage and government securities.

In regard to the equity market, we are only 3-7% away from the S&P and DJIA being unchanged on the year. If we do get there, I think it would be a good opportunity to sell positions. I believe the next 10% move will be to lower prices.

In short, I think the delevering process has been given a significant breather due to Uncle Sam’s checkbook but that it is not yet over.

What do you think? There is plenty here for everybody. Please share your thoughts.

LD

Blood Transfusions Can Get Messy

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 30th, 2009 3:00 PM |

Friends of mine have asked me to explain some of the dynamics involved in the government rescuing of our banking system, equity markets, and economy as a whole. Allow me to share with you the following analogy I gave them.

A patient in distress enters surgery and badly needs a blood transfusion. The blood in our economy is transferred via massive increases in deficit spending funded from borrowing in the government bond market. The same sort of operations are occurring in every major country and region literally around the world. The overall blood donor supply is not limitless. In withdrawing the blood from the government bond market, other patients (consumers, corporations) have found blood to be in very short supply and they have suffered as a result. 

We all know that blood can regenerate. Are the “green shoots” in our economy a result of “blood doping,” in which the patient regenerates his own blood even in the midst of the transfusion? Blood doping is a very dangerous procedure. When should the patient become a blood donor rather than a blood recipient?

Are our surgeons talented enough to know when and how to precisely withdraw the blood? Does the patient run the risk of another much more serious condition from excessive blood flow? No doubt.

Who on our staff is practiced in the art of withdrawing blood?  Paul Volcker was chair of the Fed in the early 1980s when inflation ran rampant. He increased the heart rate monitor known as the Fed Funds rate to near 20% in order to choke off the inflation monster. 

Without referencing a specific target Fed Funds rate, Volcker remarked yesterday that an overheated patient this go round may also require similar treatment.

LD

Reconciliation May Create Irreconcilable Differences

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 30th, 2009 11:00 AM |

Will the Democratic Congress supported by the Obama administration use a process known as “reconciliation” to pass health care legislation? Reconciliation allows for passing legislation by a simple majority in the Senate instead of the standard 60 vote margin. In so doing, Obama and the Democrats will likely pass this legislation without real debate.

The process has never been used to pass new legislation of the magnitude of health care reform. By all measures, the reconciliation process was never intended to be used in this manner. Obama and the Democratic leadership maintain that the Bush administration used reconciliation to pass tax legislation. The Republicans respond by claiming that in those cases reconciliation was used to renew existing legislation and not of the magnitude or importance of health care reform.

Are Obama and the Democrats forgoing any form of debate on this issue and jeopardizing any sort of honest bipartisan politics moving forward? I believe so.

The UPI provides further color on this topic, Dems to Use Reconcilation For Healthcare.

Is there any doubt that Obama is hellbent on passing this legislation regardless of future risks to political procedures. Will this healthcare legislation be written in the same manner as the Economic Stimulus bill jammed through Congress? The UPI reports,

Even though Republican leaders have warned Democrats against using the tactic and others say it may hinder future legislation where bipartisan consensus is needed, Obama Thursday reiterated his support for the move in a meeting with congressional leaders, White House and Capitol Hill sources told the Times.

The president and his congressional allies believe using the budget reconciliation process to pass healthcare reform may be the only way to implement measures that have eluded lawmakers for years, the newspaper said.

Given Arlen Specter’s switch of parties, I honestly believe the only real check on Democratic spending at this juncture may be polls from currently controlled Democratic states showing significant voter unrest.

I view the use of the reconciliation process as just another step towards our political process in Washington being totally out of control….and it will be expensive to clean up!!

LD






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