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Home‘Beggar Thy Neighbor’ Leads to Currency Wars
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 14, 2013 6:56 AM |
The United States still has an official policy of pursuing a strong dollar, right?
Yes, right, and if you were to believe that, might I interest you in a bridge in Brooklyn?
The simple fact is that five years into our economic crisis, the major economic centers of the world, those being the USA, the EU, and now Japan are all employing the same central bank policy to support their economies. This policy of quantitative easing is an attempt to accomplish a combination of the following, with different emphasis depending on the region:
1. compel investors to redeploy money into risk assets
2. monetize their debt
3. promote inflation
4. ”beggar thy neighbor“, that is, devalue their currency in an attempt to promote exports and support their economy at the expense of their trading partners.
What do we end up with? A lot of confusion and a regular drumbeat of conflicting statements put forth by central bankers. These statements remind me of a line often directed to Wall Street management and Washington politicians. That is, “how do you know when a Wall Street CEO, a Washington politician, or a central banker is lying?”
“When their lips move.”
Let’s listen to Pimco’s Mohamed el-Erian’s give his 2-minute take on how all these governments are pursuing the same policy.
Navigate accordingly.
Larry Doyle
Isn’t it time or overtime to subscribe to all my work via e-mail, an RSS feed, on Twitter or Facebook.
I have no business interest with any entity referenced in this commentary. The opinions expressed are my own. I am a proponent of real transparency within our markets so that investor confidence and investor protection can be achieved.
Root Causes of Currency Wars
Rumors of (Currency) War
The last Treasury Secretary that was honest about a strong dollar was Paul O’Neill. When John Snow was appointed, the dollar declined about 30% during his tenure. Each successor has continued along the same path.
Add The Bernank to the equation and the Econ 101 texts can be recycled, as the information contained within is no longer relevant.
We are the last who want a strong currency, w/8%++ out of work?
I would reference a good George Schultz (remember him?) quote which has never been more prevalent than today, “watch what we do, not what we say.”.