Sense on Cents

Squeal like a pig!!

Being short a specific stock or bond position and seeing it get squeezed is a very unpleasant experience. To that point, those traders or investors who are short AIG are experiencing real pain over the last handful of trading sessions. AIG’s stock has tripled over the course of the last month and closed today just above $48/share. What is going on?

1. Be mindful that AIG had a 1:20 reverse stock split on June 30th, so today’s close equates to a $2.40 close split-adjusted. The stock is still down 90% over the last 12 months.

2. AIG, as with many risk based companies, has benefited from an overall improved tone to the market and perceived improved economy. That said, AIG remains an entity filled with enormous risks and exposures.

3. The biggest development with AIG is a reengagement with former AIG head, Hank Greenberg. Why is this so important? Two reasons:

>> Greenberg can help new AIG CEO Robert Benmosche on a number of fronts, both externally and internally. Greenberg may be of questionable character, but he knows how to work books and businesses.

>> Outside of Uncle Sam (who owns 80% of AIG), Greenberg controls a substantial amount of AIG’s stock. Don’t think for a second that Greenberg would not be very happy to help orchestrate a good old-fashioned short squeeze. How so? Do not lend the stock to those traders and investors who are short. Buy more stock into the strength.

While some Wall Street analysts may believe they can fully understand and appreciate the complexity of the insurance behemoth known as AIG, the fact is this remains a highly speculative trading vehicle more than a fundamentally sound investment. Trade it accordingly.

Those with knowledge and insights into AIG and its trading patterns, please comment.

LD

This entry was posted on Thursday, August 27th, 2009 at 4:54 PM and is filed under AIG, General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.