We Need a Bigger Boat
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 23, 2009 6:05 AM |
The movie Jaws struck fear into the souls of beachgoers in the mid-70s. If our current economy were only a scary movie. A classic scene in Jaws occurred when the salty mariner Quint eyed the shark and informed his sidekicks, “we need a bigger boat.”
In similar fashion, the size of the losses embedded in our banking, insurance, automotive, and states and municipalities will similarly require “a bigger boat!!”
Capital needs in the banking industry are projected from at least $500 billion to $1.5 trillion. Bloomberg reports former Fed chair Greenspan Says Banks Need $750 Billion More Capital. Nouriel Roubini puts the needs at upwards of $1.5 trillion.
Last night in my weekly Sunday evening radio show, NQR’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle, I highlighted how the insurance industry will very likely need anywhere from $100-500 billion in capital. (You can listen to an archived recording of last night’s show by clicking on the audio player I provided in my previous post.)
The advisor to the automotive industry, Steven Rattner, has informed the administration that GM, Chrysler May Need More Aid Than Requested. Long term capital needs could run as high as $100 billion.
States and local municipalities? Who knows how great the needs may run, but they will have to be funded either in the form of higher taxes, fewer services, federal injections of capital, or all of the above.
Add it all up and these capital injections are probably at least $1 trillion over and above the federal capital outlays for budgetary demands and fiscal stimulus.
The crowding out effect will not go away anytime soon. I can’t begin to get constructive on the equity market in the face of these capital shortcomings.