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The Case for Sense on Cents

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 27, 2009 10:24 PM |

Welcome to Sense on Cents!!

Why am I so enthused about the potential for this site? I could write at length in answering that question, but in short I firmly believe the “product” delivered here is in very strong demand and very short supply. Collectively as we navigate the economic landscape we will learn, share, and become more comfortable with the economy, the markets, and global finance. While the economy dominates our news currently, where can one go to make sense of it? Welcome to Sense on Cents!

Sense on Cents is truly a reflection of my professional instincts and personal interests.  I sincerely believe this site can elevate the level of financial literacy, economic knowledge, and market insights for those who come here. Additionally, I am pleased to provide a wealth of information on career planning, global perspectives, financial primers, and meaningful literature. The sharing of opinions and active dialogue are strongly encouraged. I hope you feel comfortable coming here, find it to be of great value, will offer your perspectives, and will spread the word! While making “sense on cents,” I feel strongly we will find the relationships and returns to be very rewarding, especially relative to the risks!

I thank Larry Johnson for his tremendous support from my very first day at No Quarter and look forward to a continuing, close working relationship with him, Susan, and all involved at NQ. I sincerely hope and believe our efforts can and will promote our mutual interests.

While in the midst of planning my site, Robert J. Shiller, renowned economics professor at Yale University, addressed the need for an initiative such as Sense on Cents in an editorial in the New York Times on Sunday, January 18, 2009. Shiller outlines one of the most compelling reasons for my launching this site . . . although Shiller writes in a far more effective fashion than I ever could! If you have a minute, I think you’ll enjoy Shiller’s piece. Let me close by saying thank you for your support, and I look forward to the journey! Now on to Shiller’s article:

How About a Stimulus For Financial Advice?

In evaluating the causes of the financial crisis, don’t forget the countless fundamental mistakes made by millions of people who were caught up in the excitement of the real estate bubble, taking on debt they could ill afford.

Many errors in personal finance can be prevented. But first, people need to understand what they ought to do. The government’s various bailout plans need to take this into account — by starting a major program to subsidize personal financial advice for everyone.
teaching-mortgages

A number of government agencies already have begun small-scale financial literacy programs. For example, the Treasury announced the creation of an Office of Financial Education in 2002, and President Bush started an Advisory Council on Financial Literacy a year ago. These initiatives are involved in outreach to schools with suggested curriculums, and online financial tips. But a much more ambitious effort is needed.

The government programs that are already under way are akin to distributing computer manuals. But when something goes wrong with a computer, most people need to talk to a real person who can zero in on the problem. They need an expert to guide them through the repair process, in a way that conveys patience and confidence that the problem can be solved. The same is certainly true for issues of personal finance.

The significance of this was clear at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association this month in San Francisco, where several new research papers showed the seriousness of consumer financial errors and the exploitation of them by sophisticated financial service providers.

A paper by Kris Gerardi of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Lorenz Goette of the University of Geneva and Stephan Meier of Columbia University asked a battery of simple financial literacy questions of recent homebuyers. Many of the respondents could not correctly answer even simple questions, like this one: What will a $300 item cost after it goes on a “50 percent off” sale? (The answer is $150.) They found that people who scored poorly on the financial literacy test also tended to make serious investment mistakes, like borrowing too much, and failing to collect information and shop for a mortgage.

A paper by Liran Einav and Jonathan Levin, both of Stanford, reporting on work with William Adams of Citigroup, shows how sophisticated automobile lenders can be in their loan technology. They use complicated statistical models not only to approve people for credit, but also to fine-tune the down payment and even to suggest what kind of car individuals can buy. This suggests to me that many borrowers can’t match the expertise of lenders.

And another paper, by Paige Marta Skiba of Vanderbilt University and Jeremy Tobacman of the University of Pennsylvania, showed that payday loans — advanced to people who run out of cash before their next paycheck — exploit people’s overoptimism and typically succeed in charging annual rates of interest that may amount to more than 7,000 percent.

One wishes that all this financial cleverness could be focused a bit more on improving the customers’ welfare!

The theory of capitalism, going back to Adam Smith over 200 years ago, sees an alignment of interest between consumers and businesses. Only those companies that produce what consumers really need will succeed. Those that do not will be beaten in the marketplace as consumers shop elsewhere. This puts pressure on providers to innovate and to better satisfy consumer needs.

This theory assumes, however, that consumers are rational in their choices, and to a large extent they are. But in some areas, notably personal finance, it is important to recognize that a good share of Americans have difficulty figuring things out.

Most people get financial advice only from sales representatives of one sort or another: real estate agents, mortgage brokers, sellers of financial products. Some of these providers could use their sophistication to exploit people’s tendency to behave irrationally, and to manipulate the judgment errors that consumers typically make. And competitive pressures tend to make providers promote products that exploit those errors to the hilt, unless, of course, we offer consumers real financial advice.

Such advice is tax deductible, so it is already subsidized indirectly. But most lower-income people do not itemize deductions on their tax returns, so they don’t receive this benefit. In addition, their income tax rates are lower, so the deduction’s benefits can be even less — sometimes zero if they pay no taxes. That’s why it makes sense to subsidize the advice enough that lower-income people will really buy it, much as we do with health care in Medicaid and Medicare. In this case, it means reimbursing qualified private financial advisers for most or, sometimes, all their fees.

SUBSIDIZED financial advisers should be licensed by self-regulatory organizations that verify their qualifications. Licensing will be imperfect, and some incompetent advisers will end up with subsidies. Still, the net effect of getting professional advice to the public is surely positive.

To qualify for a subsidy, the advisers would have to sign a statement promising loyalty to their clients and agreeing to accept only the subsidized hourly fee, and never any commissions or kickbacks. The subsidies might come to $75 an hour, at a very rough estimate, and if 50 million Americans averaged four hours of consultations, the eventual cost might be $15 billion a year — a substantial expenditure, but a worthwhile one.

If personal financial advisers had been subsidized years ago with the best incentives, they still might not have stopped their clients’ bubble thinking during the boom. Many advisers probably thought that housing investments were a good bet. But it’s still likely that advisers who built long-term relationships with their clients, and who pledged to look after their welfare, would have been a helpful influence, suggesting caution to those who were getting over their heads in debt, and warning that adjustable-rate mortgages could be reset upward, just as the fine print said. For these reasons, financial advisers probably would have reduced the severity of the housing bubble.

Professional financial advice is now generally accessible only by the relatively wealthy. Changing this would be an important corrective step. Giving the general public access to trained advisers would be a boon for the nation in this time of doubt and distrust.

Robert J. Shiller is professor of economics and finance at Yale and co-founder and chief economist of MacroMarkets LLC.

Illustration by David G. Klein

 

Welcome to Sense on Cents!!

  • TeakWoodKite

    I you wish the best on this effort. A valueable Bookmarked

  • Larry Doyle

    I am very optimistic and determined. I appreciate your support.

  • candymarl

    Thanks for this. You manage to explain things so that even a dummy like me can understand them.

  • Larry Doyle

    My pleasure!! I hope you enjoy the site, continue to find my work easy to understand, and will let your friends know.

    Thanks.

  • ChooChooMagoo

    Way to Go LD!!!

    “Sense on Cents” will be at the top of my daily rounds. Reading your posts at NQ was very empowering for me. Thanks for sharing your honest, foward looking thoughts and money sense.

    Wishing you every success – knowledgeable, honest, insightful information for average americans is at a premium these days. And thanks for doing your bit to help us educate ourselves.

    BTW – great looking blog!

  • Larry Doyle

    Choo Choo…thanks for your support. I do agree with you that the “product” here at Sense on Cents will be well received. I launched it simply because I had so much more to say and deliver. I look forward to continuing a close relationship with NQ. We’ll have plenty of fun in the process.

    The feedback has been tremendous. We’re all about sharing so feel free to spread the word.

    Thanks again!!

  • rolling_thunder

    Larry-I have been reading all your threads and enjoying your thought processes and intuition. I can now comment here!
    How can banks raise their credit card rates to people who pay on time? This is a low blow. Shouldn’t this be outlawed? The default rate with many banks is at 25%. Won’t that cause more and more good paying people to go belly up AND default? (meaning if the default rate is raised, so is their regular rate being raised.) It seems so like a set up for failure. I’m sure lots can be written about credit card services.
    Congrats on your new blog.

  • Larry Doyle

    Rolling,

    Interesting point you raise. I actually had this discussion two nights ago with my Mom. In short, rates across almost all sectors are going higher for two reasons:
    1. crowding out effect, which we link to in our Monthly Market Review piece at our investing primer: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/crowdingouteffect.asp. Crowding out occurs when government demand for capital is so extraordinary that it drives other interest rates higher because there is less capital available. When capital is less available overall, then the price of that capital (the interest rate) goes HIGHER.

    I do not disagree that it seems very unfair, but the banks are less focused on the individual borrower than they are on their overall capital needs and their overall access to capital. As the banks’ own needs go up due to actual and expected increase in defaults, then they need to set aside more capital in reserve. Additionally their access to capital is lessened because the government is “crowding them out”.

    You are right that by jacking the rates they do run the risk of causing more defaults, but that is a risk they are willing to take and are pricing in. Effectively, they are saying PLEASE pay off this card so you won’t have to borrow at this rate. For people who have few if any alternatives it is burdensome.

    Hope this provides a degree of clarity.

  • Pingback: Bill Clinton Makes Case for Sense on Cents | Sense on Cents()






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