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HomeLooking Inside “The Great Recession”
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 10th, 2010 7:47 AM |
Economic data is typically released and then reviewed in aggregate fashion. As such, understanding the dynamics at work within our economy is often clouded by the inability to access and analyse ‘the trees’ as opposed to ‘the forest.’ What happens as a result of this reality? Economic programs to address issues are typically crafted while looking through the rear view mirror. Regrettably results generated are often sub-standard and fraught with unintended consequences.
How might we change our perspective? Let’s check in with Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute who projects what will occur in our economy based on a forward looking process that captures real-time consumer activity. As a longstanding admirer of Rick and his work, I welcome sharing his recent fabulous piece, Revisiting The Character of “The Great Recession”
We have commented before about how the “Great Recession” has changed character over time, evolving from a relatively normal “garden variety” and V-shaped consumer confidence recession into something far more persistent — where a lack of jobs and negative home equity has transformed it into a “new frugality.” But we haven’t previously discussed how the “Great Recession” has been an uneven experience among even those living in “Main Street” America. A recent review of our data has convinced us that this has not been a recession of shared pain, but one that has cut much deeper in some demographics than in others. (more…)
Our Ongoing Recession
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 31st, 2010 5:56 AM |
I have informed more people than I care to count that I do not believe we are going to have an economic double dip. Am I turning positive on the economy? Do I see blue skies and fair winds on our economic horizon? No, regrettably not. The reason I do not believe we will have an economic double dip is very simply I do not believe that our “real” economy, not the government sponsored version, ever really came out of the initial recession.
People may care to debate or challenge me on my premise, but my ‘sense on cents’ leads me to believe that we have been experiencing one long and ongoing recession. I definitely sense that more people are now coming to accept this reality as well. This ‘walking pneumonia’ economic syndrome is captured in a recent commentary by Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute,
The “Great Recession” that began in 2008 has had many nuances, but among the most important are that many of the observed changes in consumer behavior have begun to linger, much as the recession itself now appears to have done. If a new consumer thrift paradigm becomes endemic — either because of natural demographic processes or scarred generational memories of upside-down loans — the lingering recession might well end up being measured in years, not quarters as commonly expected. (more…)
Has the Recession Really Ended?
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 26th, 2010 11:25 AM |
In the course of a discussion this past week, I made the point that I do not believe our economy has ever truly come out of the recession which officially began in December 2007. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is responsible for measuring the start and end dates for economic contractions and expansions. Why is it that the NBER has never officially declared an end to the recession? Interesting, very interesting.
On this topic, a good friend shared with me a fabulous piece which addresses our current economic health and the major hurdles for our future economic growth and prosperity. This piece, Quarterly Review and Outlook by Hoisington Investment Management in Austin, TX, addresses these hurdles in forthright, layman’s fashion. (more…)
“Time, Why You Punish Me?”
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 8th, 2009 2:22 PM |
I have tried to highlight that markets correct by price and time. While the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has pinpointed that our current recession started in December 2007, the downturn clearly accelerated after the failure of Lehman Bros. in mid-September. You do not need me to remind you that our equity markets were down 35-40% last year.
Against that backdrop, the question on everybody’s mind is how quickly can the incoming Obama administration turn the economy around. A question I receive from friends and former colleagues is “how long” will this last. Wall Street insiders are in the business of selling products so throughout 2008, and from what I see so far in 2009, they are hedging on what I believe will be an extended downturn.
I am an optimist by nature and not one to promote a doom and gloom scenario, but let’s look at the cards that are already on the table and review past recessions that were financially driven rather than manufacturing driven. Let’s also look at forecasted earnings and what they portend for our equity markets.
