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HomeECRI Had Forecasted GDP Weakness
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 29th, 2011 9:14 AM |
While economists up and down Wall Street express real surprise at the GDP reports this morning, regular readers of this blog hopefully recall the siren sounded by the Economic Cycle Research Institute in mid-May.
I highlighted the ECRI’s warning at that time in writing, ECRI Forecasting Global Economic Slowdown,
The ECRI clearly has a strong pedigree. More importantly the ECRI is not compromised by an existing relationship with a global investment bank or another entity looking to sell financial products. Against that backdrop, the crowd at the ECRI sees storm clouds on the horizon. Just yesterday IBD released a report covering ECRI’s forecast entitled Cruel Summer?>>>>>>>> (more…)
Our Ongoing Recession
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 31st, 2010 5:56 AM |
I have informed more people than I care to count that I do not believe we are going to have an economic double dip. Am I turning positive on the economy? Do I see blue skies and fair winds on our economic horizon? No, regrettably not. The reason I do not believe we will have an economic double dip is very simply I do not believe that our “real” economy, not the government sponsored version, ever really came out of the initial recession.
People may care to debate or challenge me on my premise, but my ‘sense on cents’ leads me to believe that we have been experiencing one long and ongoing recession. I definitely sense that more people are now coming to accept this reality as well. This ‘walking pneumonia’ economic syndrome is captured in a recent commentary by Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute,
The “Great Recession” that began in 2008 has had many nuances, but among the most important are that many of the observed changes in consumer behavior have begun to linger, much as the recession itself now appears to have done. If a new consumer thrift paradigm becomes endemic — either because of natural demographic processes or scarred generational memories of upside-down loans — the lingering recession might well end up being measured in years, not quarters as commonly expected. (more…)
