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HomeA Sunday Morning Review
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 12th, 2009 7:36 AM |
I always enjoy reading the thoughts and opinions of John Mauldin, an economic All-Star here at Sense on Cents. Mauldin himself provides insightful perspectives, but he has a number of relationships who weigh in with probing analysis from around the globe.
Mauldin’s recent ‘Outside the Box’ article, “A Tale of Two Depressions,” provides a wealth of information and analysis on the global economy. I personally found this piece beneficial in juxtaposition to yesterday’s Recommended Weekend Reading, “Aftermath of Financial Crises” by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff.
I feel strongly that we need to focus on the current not the waves, the forest not the trees. On that note, I hope you find this commentary and all other work here at Sense on Cents to be helpful as you navigate the economic landscape!
Please join me this evening at 8PM to address these topics and others on my Sunday night radio show, NoQuarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle.
LD
“Time, Why You Punish Me?”
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 8th, 2009 2:22 PM |
I have tried to highlight that markets correct by price and time. While the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has pinpointed that our current recession started in December 2007, the downturn clearly accelerated after the failure of Lehman Bros. in mid-September. You do not need me to remind you that our equity markets were down 35-40% last year.
Against that backdrop, the question on everybody’s mind is how quickly can the incoming Obama administration turn the economy around. A question I receive from friends and former colleagues is “how long” will this last. Wall Street insiders are in the business of selling products so throughout 2008, and from what I see so far in 2009, they are hedging on what I believe will be an extended downturn.
I am an optimist by nature and not one to promote a doom and gloom scenario, but let’s look at the cards that are already on the table and review past recessions that were financially driven rather than manufacturing driven. Let’s also look at forecasted earnings and what they portend for our equity markets.
