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HomeMy Focus on Exports Not Employment
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 3rd, 2012 9:50 AM |
The monthly jobs report came out and is viewed as slightly better than expected but provides both sides of the political debate sufficient fodder to spin it to their advantage.
While equity markets want to put a happy face on the report (an increase in non-farm payroll of 163,000 jobs along with an uptick in the unemployment rate to 8.3%), I have little real confidence in the report signaling meaningful improvement in our economy.
Why am I concerned that our economy is poised to slow and potentially contract? Forget the employment report, let’s look elsewhere to get a better read on economic growth going into year end. (more…)
Rick Santelli : Honest Unemployment Review, May 4
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 4th, 2012 11:02 AM |
Thanks to regular reader Fred for prompting me to check out CNBC’s Rick Santelli for his honest unemployment review a short bit ago. I love somebody who cuts right to the chase. Santelli does just that.
Take the mere two minutes to view this clip so you have a real understanding as to the state of our labor market today. (more…)
May 4, 2012: Unemployment Report Review
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 4th, 2012 9:20 AM |
When it comes to discussing the unemployment rate in our nation today, I am often reminded of a discussion we would facetiously have on the trading desk at First Boston back in the mid-1980s.
That discussion would revolve around our desk manager inquiring as to our weekly P and L (profit and loss). I can recall these humorous exchanges as if they were yesterday:
Manager: “So, LD, what’s your P and L this week? ”
LD: “Well, what do you need?” (more…)
Unemployment Report August 5, 2011: Discouraging
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 5th, 2011 9:13 AM |
The big exhale you may have just heard emanating from Washington follows a slightly better than expected unemployment report this morning.
I am happy to hear that the report is slightly better than expected and will address the particulars momentarily. I caution people not to make too much of this report, though. Why?
While the report may have exceeded expectations, let’s not lose sight of the fact that the expectations were not all that high at the outset.
Additionally, this report is backward looking. What have we seen and heard from a wide array of companies recently? Indications of further layoffs.
Those with a measure of ‘sense on cents‘ do not take reports on face value. Let’s dig a little deeper. (more…)
May 6th Unemployment Report Review: Mixed Bag but Misses The Bigger Picture
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 6th, 2011 8:57 AM |
The highly anticipated May Unemployment Report was released this morning. How did it look and what does it mean for our ‘walking pneumonia’ economy?
We have some good news and we have some bad news; more importantly than the monthly snapshot, though, let’s step back and take a wide angle view of our overall employment situation. On that note, let’s navigate.
The Wall Street Journal highlights the following: (more…)
Unemployment Report Review, April 1, 2011: We Need Yeast
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 1st, 2011 8:52 AM |
This morning’s Unemployment Report may be presented as another in an ongoing series of gradually improving signs of economic recovery. That said, the report lacks one vitally important ingredient. What is that?
Yeast.
What? “LD, what the heck are you talking about?”
As any trained chef knows, “it’s the yeast that makes the dough rise!!” On that note, while pundits and analysts may care to focus on the headline unemployment rate declining to 8.8% and non-farm payrolls increasing by 216k, for those focused on the structural health and well being of our economy, I encourage you to focus on wages. (more…)
What is The Real Rate of Unemployment in the United States?
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 13th, 2010 8:06 AM |
Just what is the true rate of unemployment in our country? Our headline U-3 rate is currently 9.5%. Our U-6 rate, more broadly defined, is 16.5%.
Many people are aware of the differences between U-3 and U-6; however, renowned economist John Williams takes our analysis to an entirely new level. Williams is far ahead of the curve in his work.
William is likely not a regular on the Washington cocktail circuit. Why’s that? He goes far deeper in his work and exposes inconsistencies, if not worse, in government statistics. Let’s learn more about Williams and his work at Shadow Government Statistics:>>>> (more…)
Without Job Growth, Here Comes the “QE2”
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 6th, 2010 9:46 AM |
This morning’s Unemployment Report further confirms that our economy remains burdened by our Sense on Cents description of ‘walking pneumonia.’ While this month’s report was decidedly weaker than expectations, once again we witness downward revisions to prior reports. Do you find it strange that more often than not much of the economic data released has displayed this tendency to have downward revisions to prior reports. Think the data is heavily massaged? You think?
Let’s navigate this morning’s report thanks to The Wall Street Journal’s Market Data page: (more…)
Review of Unemployment Report July 2, 2010
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 2nd, 2010 9:19 AM |
The release of the Unemployment Report this morning is very much consistent with an economy that is undergoing real structural changes and adjusting to the realities of lessened credit and limited growth. As much as some may like to spin it one way or another, those realities are the simple and straightforward ‘sense on cents’ views as we navigate our economic landscape. I do not envision these realities changing anytime soon.
A quick review:
1. The overall unemployment rate declined from 9.7% to 9.5% while the consensus expectation was for an increase to 9.8%. The underemployment rate declined from 16.6% to 16.5%. Are these positive developments? Nope. Why? The rates dropped as more people, in this case 652k workers, have given up looking for work and have exited the labor force. (more…)
Unemployment Report July 8…U-G-L-Y!!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 8th, 2011 8:42 AM |
Consensus estimates for the July employment report (measuring June economic activity) had an increase of 105k jobs with many economists recently revising their estimates higher to 125k.
Their ‘guesstimates’ were not close as the non-farm payroll report released at 8:30am reflected an increase of a mere 18k jobs with downward revisions to the prior two months of 44k jobs.
Were there any hidden gems in the report? Not a one. (more…)
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Posted in Employment, General, Unemployment | 4 Comments »