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HomeRobert Reich: “No Jobs Recovery”
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 5th, 2010 8:29 AM |
Where is the jobs growth? If we listen to many in Washington or the general media, Friday’s employment report (indicating +162k in non-farm payroll) was a turning point in our labor markets. Was it really? Let’s listen to former Labor Secretary Robert Reich and get his take.
Although I have a decidedly different point of view than Reich on many economic and political topics, I do believe that Reich speaks from his heart and presents what he believes to be the truth as opposed to sugarcoating data to further promote a political agenda. (more…)
Unemployment Report: April 2, 2010
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 2nd, 2010 8:56 AM |
The widely anticipated April Unemployment Report covering the month of March was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .
I. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
December: 10%
January: 10%
February: 10.1%
March: 9.7%
– April Consensus Expectation: 9.7 %
– April Actual: 9.7%
>> LD’s comments: as expected. More people who had given up looking for work have now reentered the labor force. This trend will keep pressure on the rate. The U-6, that is the underemployment rate inched higher to 16.9% from last month’s 16.8%. What about the long term unemployed? (more…)
White House Sees Elevated Unemployment for ‘Extended Period’
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2010 11:43 AM |
Is the White House reading Sense on Cents?
While I ask that question in a self-effacing fashion, I will allow others to pass muster as to whether my commentary deserves attention in Washington. Why do I ask that question now though? I wrote this morning, “What Happened to Focus on Jobs?”:
The ‘talking points’ utilized by those in Washington project that our economy and markets are experiencing cyclical unemployment. I firmly believe they are wrong. Our economy and markets are experiencing structural unemployment.
Now it appears as if the White House ‘talking points’ have changed. (more…)
Unemployment Report: March 5, 2010
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 5th, 2010 9:59 AM |
The widely anticipated March Unemployment Report covering the month of February was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .
I. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
August: 9.4%
September: 9.7%
October: 9.8%
November: 10.2%…revised to 10.1%
December: 10%
January: 10%
February: 10.1%
– March Consensus Expectation: 9.7-9.8%
– March Actual: 9.7%
>> LD’s comments: as expected. Not widely publicized is the fact that the U-6, that is the underemployment rate moved back up from 16.5% to 16.8%. Not trying to be intentionally pessimistic but merely trying to provide a full snapshot so we can navigate accordingly. (more…)
Unemployment Report: February 5, 2010
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 5th, 2010 8:58 AM |
The widely anticipated February Unemployment Report covering the month of January was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .
I. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
August: 9.4%
September: 9.7%
October: 9.8%
November: 10.2%…revised to 10.1%
December: 10%
January: 10%
– February Consensus Expectation: 10.1%
– February Actual: 9.7%
>> LD’s comments: A fluke. A drop in the rate would typically be viewed as a positive, but then why didn’t we see job growth? Today’s report indicates that a lot of people have given up looking for work, thus shrinking the overall labor pool. The U-6 (the underemployment rate) is now 16.5%. Better? Don’t be fooled. I think it is again more an indication that people are exiting the labor force overall. (more…)
John Williams Sees Unemployment at 22%
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 8th, 2010 3:15 PM |
What is the real rate of unemployment?
The traditional rate of unemployment, commonly regarded as the U-3, is currently 10%.
Very often, though, we hear reference to the underemployment rate, that is the U-6 rate. The U-6 rate currently sits at 17.3%. This measure encompasses those individuals who desire more hours, are working below their skill set, or are discouraged and have exited the labor pool.
Thanks to SG, I was introduced today to a noted economist who has been tracking an even more encompassing measure of unemployment. Who is this individual? John Williams who operates Shadow Government Statistics.
Walter J. “John” Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth’s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.
Williams has developed an even more comprehensive measure of unemployment, known as the SGS Alternate. What does this include? (more…)
Unemployment Report: January 8, 2010
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 8th, 2010 9:09 AM |
The widely anticipated January Unemployment Report covering the month of December was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .
I. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
August: 9.4%
September: 9.7%
October: 9.8%
November: 10.2%…revised to 10.1%
December: 10%
– January Consensus Expectation: 10.0%
– January Actual: 10.0%
>> LD’s comments: unchanged on the month, in line with expectations. The November rate was revised from 10.2% to 10.1%. The underemployment rate worsened to a rate of 17.3% from 17.2%. How do I read this? The rate of decline may be flattening, but there is absolutely no reason to believe this is destined to improve, especially anytime soon. The fact that the underemployment rate inched higher is a stronger sign as to the real health (or illness) of the labor market. (more…)
Unemployment Report: December 4, 2009
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 4th, 2009 8:57 AM |
The widely anticipated December Unemployment Report covering the month of November was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .
I. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
August: 9.4%
September: 9.7%
October: 9.8%
November: 10.2%
– December Consensus Expectation: 10.2%
– December Actual: 10.0% !!
>> LD’s comments: Discouraged workers did increase and exit the labor pool. That fact supported this improvement. Initial reaction to the report remains one of disbelief and skepticism. The underemployment rate (U-6 rate) improved to an overall level of 17.2%.
II. NON-FARM PAYROLL (click here for definition of this term)
July: loss of 463k
August: loss of 304k
September: loss of 154k
October: loss of 219k
November: loss of 190k
– December Consensus Expectation: loss of 100k to 125k
– December Actual: loss of 11k!!
>> LD’s comments: positive revisions to the previous two months of 159k. A major surprise. Along with the positive revisions, do not be surprised to see many analysts tout this as the turn in the economy and the fact that government programs are working. We will need more than one month’s report to confirm that. (more…)
Jobs is Job #1
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 30th, 2009 9:34 AM |
“Kiss me!!”
“What?”
That’s right, I said, “Kiss me!!”
Many a businessman is familiar with the basic principle of “kiss me,” that is “Keep It Simple, Stupid.”
Regrettably, Washington is not familiar with that simplest of business principles. Legislative bills that run into the thousands of pages and admittedly go unread by our lawmakers prior to vote are often an unmitigated disaster for American business. How so?
These bills create an environment of uncertainty. What do business leaders do when they’re unsure of what is coming out of Washington and how it might impact their business? “When in doubt, wait it out.”
I witness increasing evidence of this basic business dynamic and believe it will be on full display this coming Thursday. What will happen Thursday? President Obama is hosting a Jobs Summit in Washington. Sounds like a reasonable idea given the domestic employment situation is so bad and getting worse, despite assertions to the contrary by a number of public officials and economists.
How convenient that the summit is being held Thursday. Why? This summit will provide plenty of photo ops and media coverage highlighting that Washington is hard at work addressing the employment situation right before the monthly unemployment report is released on Friday morning. Do not think for a second that the timing of this summit was not strategically scheduled to negate the negative impact of another weak report. (more…)
Is a Jobless Recovery a Recovery?
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 16th, 2009 2:20 PM |
- Cartoon by Steve Breen, The San Diego Union-Tribune
Jobless recovery seems to be a phrase economists and analysts are using with increasing frequency. In my opinion, this usage is akin to a drug dealer or liar repeating his rationalizations to the point where he believes his own bulls%&t.
Are we to believe this economic subterfuge? I believe the American public buys into this rationalization at our peril. Why? Let’s navigate along the most important leg of our economic landscape.
Our unemployment rate currently stands at 10.2% while the underemployment rate is 17.5%. On the heels of the unemployment report released on November 6th (see my summary here), many analysts and economists revised their projections for unemployment to 11% and some as high as 14%.
Just today, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke in a speech at the Economic Club of New York highlighted the fact that the current excess supply of labor in our economy is even worse than indicated. Ponder that for a second. The lead banker in our nation is telling us that our unemployment situation is even worse than statistics would indicate. What does that mean? (more…)
