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Posts Tagged ‘unemployment report’

Unemployment Report: February 5, 2010

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 5th, 2010 8:58 AM |

The widely anticipated February Unemployment Report covering the month of January was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .

August: 9.4%
September: 9.7%
October: 9.8%
November: 10.2%…revised to 10.1%
December: 10%
January: 10%
– February Consensus Expectation: 10.1%
– February Actual: 9.7%

>> LD’s comments: A fluke. A drop in the rate would typically be viewed as a positive, but then why didn’t we see job growth? Today’s report indicates that a lot of people have given up looking for work, thus shrinking the overall labor pool.  The U-6 (the underemployment rate) is now 16.5%. Better? Don’t be fooled. I think it is again more an indication that people are exiting the labor force overall. (more…)

Jobs is Job #1

Posted by Larry Doyle on November 30th, 2009 9:34 AM |

“Kiss me!!”


That’s right, I said, “Kiss me!!”

Many a businessman is familiar with the basic principle of “kiss me,” that is “Keep It Simple, Stupid.”

Regrettably, Washington is not familiar with that simplest of business principles. Legislative bills that run into the thousands of pages and admittedly go unread by our lawmakers prior to vote are often an unmitigated disaster for American business.  How so?

These bills create an environment of uncertainty. What do business leaders do when they’re unsure of what is coming out of Washington and how it might impact their business? “When in doubt, wait it out.”

I witness increasing evidence of this basic business dynamic and believe it will be on full display this coming Thursday. What will happen Thursday? President Obama is hosting a Jobs Summit in Washington. Sounds like a reasonable idea given the domestic employment situation is so bad and getting worse, despite assertions to the contrary by a number of public officials and economists.

How convenient that the summit is being held Thursday. Why? This summit will provide plenty of photo ops and media coverage highlighting that Washington is hard at work addressing the employment situation right before the monthly unemployment report is released on Friday morning. Do not think for a second that the timing of this summit was not strategically scheduled to negate the negative impact of another weak report. (more…)

Unemployment Report 3-6-09

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 6th, 2009 9:21 AM |

UnemploymentThe highly anticipated monthly unemployment report was just released. On the surface, the numbers may appear to be in line with expectations, but looking deeper into the numbers the report is actually worse than expected. Let’s dive into the numbers and comment on what they mean for our economy and markets.

The Unemployment Rate jumped from 7.6% to 8.1%. The rate was expected to move to 7.9%. The 8.1% rate is a 25 year high.

Non-farm Payrolls lost 651k jobs against an expectation of a loss of 650k jobs. In line with expectations, right? Well, one needs to look at the revisions to the prior two months to get the full picture. Non-farm payroll revisions from the prior two months show a further loss of 161k jobs over and above initial reports. That’s ugly!! Total jobs lost since December 2007, when the recession officially began, are 4.4 million!! More than half of those jobs have been lost in the last 4 months.

Average hourly earnings only rose .2. This number is not exactly robust and will further pressure consumers who are already cash constrained. (more…)

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