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HomeBank Stress Tests: Major Sham??
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 8th, 2009 11:35 AM |
Why is it urban school dropout rates are 50%? Well, I am sure there would be as many reasons for that horrendous statistic as there are dropouts. The fact of the matter is, though, the state of urban education has promoted a phenomena known as “social promotion.” If students aren’t qualified to do the work, testing has been gamed, standards have been lowered, and corners have been cut. As a result, urban education at this stage is an unmitigated disaster. What does this have to do with the current state of our economy and the world of finance? I am glad you asked.
If banks, much like students, are not required to pass rigorous testing, then “social promotion” in finance will produce results not unlike those in education–underperformance and ultimately an inability to compete on the global stage.
Against that backdrop, I personally looked forward to the results of the Bank Stress Tests. Let’s finally get an honest assessment of the “students.” Let’s see how they have performed and let’s project to see how they will perform!!
As with any test, the results are only meaningful if the process and proctor have unquestioned integrity. The proctors for the Bank Stress Test are none other than Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Fed chair Ben Bernanke. Why is a testing authority of the magnitude of FDIC, led by Sheila Bair, not more involved in the process? Ms. Bair is the one individual in our country with the greatest level of interaction with and understanding of the student body, that being the banking industry as a whole and individual banks specifically. (more…)
The Modern Day Fall of the Roman Empire?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 27th, 2009 1:36 PM |
I have focused on the problems in western and eastern Europe over the last few months. Those problems are not abating. Who would have thought that the host of next week’s G-20 may need the greatest amount of aid of all.
Should Prime Minister Gordon Brown look to increase the room rates for world leaders in attendance next week? Perhaps a slightly higher fee for the mini-bar? Every little bit helps.
In all seriousness, the U.K has spent proportionately almost three times as much in bailing out their financial institutions as the United States.
For those unaware, the U.K. was unable to fully place 40 year debt this week. That experience, known as a “failed auction,” is financially and politically embarrassing, aside from being fiscally frightening. If a country is not able to finance itself . . . (more…)
FDIC . . . For Doing It Correctly
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 19th, 2009 2:41 PM |
Sense on Cents is very judicious in selecting our Economic All-Stars (highlighted in the left sidebar). These individuals continually display a level of professionalism, maturity, consistency, and integrity which are not commonly found in our financial or political spectrum. I deeply appreciate their insights and perspectives and enjoy sharing them with our audience at Sense on Cents and No Quarter USA.
I thank Susan and Andy for tipping me off to remarks made earlier today in which Sheila Bair Says “Too Big to Fail” Strategy for Financial Institutions Must End. The administration and other political pundits are trying to make the case that the Federal Reserve should serve as the systemic risk regulator. In my opinion, Sheila Bair should occupy that role. There is a major political battle developing over this turf. Make no mistake that how this battle plays out will have deep and longstanding implications for our financial system as a whole and for individual consumers. (more…)
AIG and LTCM
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 18th, 2009 3:50 PM |
A precursor to the turmoil roiling our economy and markets today occurred on a smaller, but certainly very dramatic, scale in 1998. The meltdown of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management brought the market to its knees at the time. LTCM was effectively taken over by a consortium of Wall Street banks at the behest of New York Federal Reserve Chairman, William McDonough. The firms injected approximately $3 billion dollars in order to stabilize LTCM and then unwound it in an orderly fashion.
The lessons learned in the LTCM crisis were obviously not learned well enough because we are experiencing them again a multiple hundred fold. The centerpiece of our current fiasco is AIG (known here at Sense on Cents as “Ain’t It Great”).
The dramatic story of Long Term Capital Management is captured in a book I strongly recommend for anybody interested in the history of the financial markets. When Genius Failed, by Roger Lowenstein, is a great read and truly captures the intrigue, egos, and tension of that period. As the current turmoil unwinds I look forward to the books published on this period as well. (more…)
St. Patrick Smiles on the Market!
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 17th, 2009 5:34 PM |
When trading bonds, I used a rule that Tuesday’s price action often reversed Monday’s. While that rule of trading was strictly a quirk based upon years of experience, I found it happen so regularly that I never discounted it.
Supported by a surprisingly strong housing starts number (+22% to 583K) and a relatively mild increase in PPI (producer price index) of .1%, the market opened relatively flat today but firmed all day right into the close. The major stock market averages closed up 2.5%-4%!! (more…)
What About Commercial Real Estate
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2009 12:31 PM |
On my radio show last evening, I touched on some of the pressing issues facing our economy and, in turn, our markets. These issues include residential housing, municipal finance, automotive, and commercial real estate. While the first three issues seem to get a wealth of very personal and humanistic coverage from the media, the world of commercial real estate seems much more opaque. The site of large office buildings, suburban shopping malls, upscale hotels, warehouses, and apartment complexes do not evoke the level of human emotion involved in a foreclosed home, municipal layoffs, or factory closings. That said, the problems in the commercial real estate industry should generate just as much concern if not more. Why?
These commercial properties are the glue in our entire world of global finance. While the development of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market brought a large amount of liquidity to this sector, the shutdown of that market has just as quickly sucked the oxygen right back out. What has happened as a result? The lack of a transparent market has caused an overwhelming lack of liquidity and as a result properties are not trading. Why? The disparity between perceived value from the buyers’ and sellers’ perspectives is so wide that we could drive that proverbial Mack truck through it. (more…)
Sense on Cents “Central Station”
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 13th, 2009 6:30 PM |
I am pleased to relaunch our weekly departure from “Central Station” on Saturday mornings. This endeavor here at Sense on Cents is a few hours of written Q/A with your resident host. I like to utilize the theme of a ride on the rails, so please allow me to expound.
With so many cross currents at play in the markets, economy, and world of global finance, where can one go to develop a framework of understanding, enjoy the company of friends, and make sense of the madness? Welcome to Sense on Cents “Central Station.” Our ride departs Saturday morning at 9 a.m. with an expected return at 12 noon. While we traverse the curves along our track, we can address a wide range of issues, including: Obama’s economic plans, Secretary Geithner’s outlook, the market performance this week, month, and year to date, developments overseas, the outlook for our financial regulatory structure, issues of personal finance, or anything else on your mind.
Our ride is most productive with as many people participating as possible. Please bring not only your questions, but also your views. Invite friends, neighbors, and colleagues along for the ride as well.
Your conductor is not a professional financial planner. I recommend that you consult with a licensed, qualified professional before making any investment decisions. I am merely a Wall Street veteran looking to help you navigate the economic landscape!!
Come on back tomorrow morning at 9, submit your questions in the comments section, and away we go.. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaall Aboard!!
LD
Very Entertaining
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 13th, 2009 10:35 AM |
If I go to a comedian, I look to be entertained. I do not look for piercing insights on global issues. Alternately, when I want cogent financial analysis I don’t go to an entertainer. The following photo and captions from the New York Post are self-explanatory:
If you want to review a topic which is less entertaining, but much more critically important in navigating the economic landscape, let’s take a quick look at how the Chinese export engine is humming. Uh-oh!! Chinese exports in February dropped almost 26% from a year earlier. That decline displays an acceleration in the 17% drop experienced in January. Thank you John Mauldin, one of our Economic All-Stars (left sidebar), for providing us this less than entertaining but extremely insightful perspective, China: Exports Drop.
LD
