Posted by Larry Doyle on March 12th, 2009 7:07 AM |
At the core of most, if not all, of our economic problems lies housing. I do not need to replay the tape of low rates, shoddy underwriting, and Wall Street securitizations that all played a dramatic role in creating a bubble the likes of which we have never seen and hopefully never will again. All that said, housing is an enormous market with a wide array of factors impacting it. How does one track it? Are we supposed to rely on our local brokers telling us things feel better? Should we ask contractors if they are bidding on jobs? Dare we rely on our local or national media outlets to provide their expertise and pandering? If we did, housing may have bottomed 14 different times in the last 10 months. In all seriousness, how can we track housing? Welcome to Sense on Cents.
There are two indexes that have developed over the last few years and are enormously respected by market participants. One index, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes, is released on a monthly basis. This index tracks a variety of regions in the country but not every region. Still, all things considered, this index is widely watched as a reliable indicator of health in housing. The index is typically released toward the end of each month. The most recently released report was on February 24th, A Look at Case-Shiller Numbers, by Metro Area. In this report, all indications are that housing has yet to see any support. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 10th, 2009 5:50 AM |
I thoroughly respect Sheila Bair (see my list of Economic All-Stars in the left sidebar). Our Head of the FDIC has been an honest broker each and every time I have heard her speak. I looked forward to her interview with Paul Gigot of The Wall Street Journal.
Ms. Bair addresses the finer points of the Obama Foreclosure Mitigation Plan which is targeted at helping 9 million homeowners stay in their homes. Specifically she touches on:
1. how this program will not reward bad behavior; 2. how it can be viewed as helping people who have managed their finances appropriately; 3. expectations of redefaults given her experience with the failed institution Indymac.
As I initially mentioned, I believe Sheila Bair is an honest broker in an impossible position. Her seeming lack of enthusiasm does not strike me as not believing in the benefits of this program, but rather a subtle acceptance that this program can only go so far. Additionally, this type of program will have plenty of unintended consequences. Will people who are currently paying their mortgages on schedule start to become delinquent on their mortgages in order to gain the benefits of this program?
I think Ms. Bair will make the best of a bad situation. That said, no program will be totally effective. I am fully supportive of programs that will assist Americans, but don’t be fooled to think that we will get 100% return on all dollars spent.
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 28th, 2009 2:20 PM |
. . . You Better Shop Around.”
What does that wonderful song from Smokey Robinson and the Miracles have to do with our economy? I’ll tie that in a bit later.
More and more people are inquiring of me how and why banks are making credit tighter both in terms of availability and in terms of rates charged.
This tightening of credit is due to the “crowding out effect” from dramatically increased government borrowing along with the actuality and likelihood of increased defaults across all consumer and corporate loans. In the face of those defaults, banks will set aside more capital in reserve to cushion those losses.
What is a consumer to do? There are two tactics:
1. Everything’s Negotiable which I highlighted in a post dated December 23, 2008. Talk to your bankers and/or credit providers. Put your banks and other credit providers in competition. Where does one start and how does one easily comparison shop? I’m glad you asked because that leads me to point #2.
2. Shop around (thank you, Smokey)! Sense on Cents provides links via our Primers (in the right sidebar) for a look across the market to virtually every consumer credit need. Remember I have NO professional relationship with any of these entities. From borrowing needs to investing, with many stops in between, I hope these primers help you navigate the economic landscape going forward!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 28th, 2009 10:13 AM |
Prior to going to the comments section of my son’s report card, human nature dictates that I first look at the grades. In that same vein, let’s see how the markets performed for the month of February:
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 27th, 2009 1:18 PM |
The mortgage interest deduction has been a cornerstone of American tax and housing policy. In fact, I can’t count the number of times I conversed with my accountant about maintaining mortgage debt based upon the feeling it was the one deduction the government would never touch. Well, never just pulled into the driveway!
For clarification purposes and at the request of a number of readers, allow me to address this deduction. As proposed in President Obama’s budget, for those households currently paying taxes in the 33% and 35% brackets, the mortgage deduction would now be at a 28% rate. The proposal would not take effect until 2011.
This Mortgage Deduction Looks Less Sacred. Its effect can and is hotly debated by economists and housing analysts. In my opinion, though, there are a few points not debatable. This initiative is another method of achieving wealth redistribution. It will make housing more expensive at the margin. It will put pressure on housing in general and in upper income areas specifically. Given that there are no initiatives proposed to support those needing Jumbo mortgages, this tax change will only further negatively impact this sector of the market.
Lastly, is this Obama’s “crossing the Rubicon?” Don’t think for a second that this initiative just developed. How and why did we NEVER hear about this during the campaign? Did he know how negatively it would be received?
In summary, having “crossed the Rubicon,” how far does he penetrate into the territory?
We’ll be watching, but knowing how wildly optimistic his growth projections are in his proposed budget, Obama will need more $$$. The mortgage interest deduction just became fair game.
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 7th, 2008 4:50 PM |
The highly anticipated October employment report came in as follows:
unemployment rate
6.5% up from 6.1%
non-farm payrolls
-240k jobs vs consensus estimate of -200k
September revision
a loss of 284k jobs from initial estimate of 159k!
Labor costs
+3.5% year over year
Jobs were lost in virtually every sector: manufacturing, construction, and especially the service sector, which had been the sector that provided job strength over the last few years.
In summary, there is nothing to like about this report and it is likely to get worse. Estimates on unemployment rate range from 7% to 9% by the middle of 2009.
Goldman Sachs, which had the most accurate call on the employment report, is now calling for a -3.5% GDP for 4th qtr 2008 and a -2% for 1st qtr 2009. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 16th, 2008 6:00 AM |
I am happy to provide you with a full accounting of what occurred from the late ’90s to the present.
–The repeal of Glass-Stegall (GLBA) is a total non-event in the midst of the current economic turmoil. What this repeal did was allow commercial banks to get more deeply involved with investment banking activities. Thus, JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America were able to utilize their significant balance sheets and capital bases to become a force on Wall Street. Fast forward ten years and it is those institutions that are now thankfully supporting and bailing out our system.
–Throughout the 90s and into the early part of this century, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were utilizing their significant lobbying power to gain an ever increasing portion of the overall U.S. mortgage market. They had the enormous advantage of being able to borrow at just marginally over U.S, government rates given the “implied” but not explicit backing of Uncle Sam. I mean, come on. That worst case scenario could never come to pass!!
While Freddie and Fannie were designed to provide liquidity to the market in the form of bundling mortgages into securities, charging a guarantee fee for return of principal to the investors in these MBS, and then selling the MBS into the private market, they decided to “grow their business”. Just how did they grow? Given their ability to borrow at very cheap rates they decided to effectively grow their own internal portfolios. This business model was nothing more than a massively levered hedge fund under the guise of “helping the homowner”. (more…)
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At the core of most, if not all, of our economic problems lies housing. I do not need to replay the tape of low rates, shoddy underwriting, and Wall Street securitizations that all played a dramatic role in creating a bubble the likes of which we have never seen and hopefully never will again. All that said, housing is an enormous market with a wide array of factors impacting it. How does one track it? Are we supposed to rely on our local brokers telling us things feel better? Should we ask contractors if they are bidding on jobs? Dare we rely on our local or national media outlets to provide their expertise and pandering? If we did, housing may have bottomed 14 different times in the last 10 months. In all seriousness, how can we track housing? Welcome to Sense on Cents. 
Prior to going to the comments section of my son’s report card, human nature dictates that I first look at the grades. In that same vein, let’s see how the markets performed for the month of February:
