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Posts Tagged ‘economics’

Increasing Vacancy Rates Will Pressure Both the Rental Market and Home Values

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 6th, 2009 11:42 AM |

You do not need to take Economics 101 to understand that an increase in supply of any asset will almost always lead to a decline in prices. This ‘tremendous grasp of the obvious’ in regard to housing runs right in the face of assertions put forth by many real estate brokers and housing experts.

High five to our friends at 12th Street Capital for bringing attention to The Wall Street Journal‘s writing, Apartment Glut Expands:

(Getty Images) Signs advertise apartments for rent in San Francisco in July. Rents declined during the third quarter, usually a strong period for rentals.

Signs advertise apartments for rent in San Francisco in July. Rents declined during the third quarter, usually a strong period for rentals. (Getty Images)

Apartment vacancies hit their highest point since 1986, surging in cities from Raleigh, N.C., to Tacoma, Wash., as rising unemployment continued to chip away at demand during the traditionally strong summer rental months.

The U.S. vacancy rate reached 7.8%, a 23-year high, according to Reis Inc., a New York real-estate research firm that tracks vacancies and rents in the top 79 U.S. markets. The rate is expected to climb further in the fall and winter, when rental demand is weaker, pushing vacancies to the highest levels since Reis began its count in 1980.
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Mortgage Deduction . . . Crossing the Rubicon

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 27th, 2009 1:18 PM |

The mortgage interest deduction has been a cornerstone of American tax and housing policy. In fact, I can’t count the number of times I conversed with my accountant about maintaining mortgage debt based upon the feeling it was the one deduction the government would never touch.  Well, never just pulled into the driveway!

For clarification purposes and at the request of a number of readers, allow me to address this deduction. As proposed in President Obama’s budget, for those households currently paying taxes in the 33% and 35% brackets, the mortgage deduction would now be at a 28% rate. The proposal would not take effect until 2011. 

This Mortgage Deduction Looks Less Sacred. Its effect can and is hotly debated by economists and housing analysts. In my opinion, though, there are a few points not debatable. This initiative is another method of achieving wealth redistribution. It will make housing more expensive at the margin. It will put pressure on housing in general and in upper income areas specifically. Given that there are no initiatives proposed to support those needing Jumbo mortgages, this tax change will only further negatively impact this sector of the market. 

Lastly, is this Obama’s “crossing the Rubicon?” Don’t think for a second that this initiative just developed. How and why did we NEVER hear about this during the campaign? Did he know how negatively it would be received? 

In summary, having “crossed the Rubicon,” how far does he penetrate into the territory? 

We’ll be watching, but knowing how wildly optimistic his growth projections are in his proposed budget, Obama will need more $$$. The mortgage interest deduction just became fair game. 

I need to call my accountant.

LD






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