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HomeThings You May Have Missed
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 7th, 2009 10:08 AM |
The stream of data and market moving news is non-stop. I found these items of interest and look to share them with you as I believe they provide interesting insights and perspectives from around the world. I beg your indulgence if some of these items are not news to you, but if they are I hope they help you “navigate the economic landscape.”
1. Australia’s central bank cut its overnight lending rate to 3%, the lowest level in 49 years. While that rate is one of the highest rates in the developed world, it was widely expected to be left unchanged. Australia has had one of the strongest economies in the world. This cut is an indication the Australian central bank believes their economy is slipping into a recession.
2. Japan’s exports are reported to be down 40% versus a year ago. Additionally, Japan’s industrial production is reported to be down 30+% during the same time period. These economic figures are significantly weaker than most other developed economies. As a frame of reference, most other developed economies’ industrial production is down 10-15%. Clearly, Japan is so dependent on exports and it is now paying the price of not having more fully diversified its economic foundation.
3. Gold is now trading near $880/oz. A month ago this precious metal was trading slightly above $1000/oz. Why is gold down recently? Coming out of the G-20, there are expectations that the IMF may sell some gold reserves to raise funds for low-income countries. I commented the other day that gold is not perfectly correlated with inflation due to changing fundamentals and technical variables in the gold market. This development with the IMF is a perfect case in point of my assertion. (more…)
Tags: Add new tag, AIG, AIG selling asset management division, Australia cuts overnight lending rate, earnings for S&P 500, G20, gold, gold price declines, Japan's exports and industrial production declines, Japanese economy, Ken Rogoff, rating agencies receiving government assistance
Posted in AIG, Australia, Bailout, Banking Institutions, Barack Obama, Business, Current Affairs, Economic Stimulus, Economy, Equity Markets, Foreign Affairs, G20, General, Global Finance, S&P 500, Wall Street | 2 Comments »
February 2009 Market Review
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 28th, 2009 10:13 AM |
Prior to going to the comments section of my son’s report card, human nature dictates that I first look at the grades. In that same vein, let’s see how the markets performed for the month of February:
Let’s review my specific projections from the January 2009 Recap: (more…)
Tags: Budget, Canadian dollar, commodities, corporate bonds, correlation, crowding out, Deficit, DJIA, Economy, equities, Euro, financial rescue package, flight to quality, foreclosures, gold, Japanese yen, John Mauldin, markets, mortgage bonds, municipal bonds, NASDAQ, Obama Administration, oil, performance, S&P 500, Sense on Cents, sovereign credit risk, U.S. dollar, Washington D.C.
Posted in American Consumers, Australia, Barack Obama, Commerce, Congress, Deficit, Democratic Party, Eastern Europe, Economic Stimulus, Economy, Employment, Equity Markets, General, Global Finance, Government funds, Hedge Funds, Home Loan, Housing Crisis, Money Market Funds, Mortgage Crisis, Mortgages, Obama Administration, Real Estate, Republicans, Reputation, Risk, S&P 500, Stimulus Plan, Unemployment, Wall Street | 8 Comments »
Things You May Have Missed
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 20th, 2009 5:20 PM |
While there is tremendous volatility in the markets and commensurate anxiety as a result, there were some major stories and developments that got less play but deserved more.
Allow me to expound. Robert Shiller, a highly distinguished Economics Professor at Yale Univeristy and co-designer of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index spoke this morning on Bloomberg News. Shiller is the preeminent expert on trends and developments in housing. He made the following assessments:
1. Glad to see that Obama is making an effort to support housing but has serious concerns about the effort.
2. $75 billion allocated for loan modification is not nearly enough to make a truly meaningful impact. (remember there is another $200 billion allocated for Freddie and Fannie to refinance mortgages).
3. No plan or proposal for those holding Jumbo mortgages leaves a large part of the market without benefits. Those homes will likely hang over the market.
(more…)
Tags: Bloomberg News, Case-Shiller Index, Robert Shiller
Posted in American Consumers, Australia, Bad Bank, Bank Nationalization, Bank of America, Banking Institutions, Barack Obama, Christopher Dodd, Citigroup, Economic Stimulus, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, General, Housing Crisis, Mortgage Crisis, Mortgages, Nouril Roubini, Stimulus Plan, Tim Geithner | No Comments »
A Fresh and Honest Perspective
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 18th, 2009 11:07 AM |
It is often difficult, if not near impossible, for an individual, company, institution, or even a government to provide a measured, honest, and unbiased perspective of a difficult situation. Given one’s proximity and emotional attachment to the situation, human nature clouds one’s viewpoint and, in turn, one’s reactions and responses.
How great it is when we can receive the sage wisdom of a neighbor, a retired executive, a former coach, or on the international level a true statesman. While we may find it difficult to hear and deal with a tough message, ultimately the greatest form of “tough love” is simple truth and honesty.
A good friend of mine was gracious enough to share some video clips of a recent interview with Paul Keating, former Prime Minister and Treasurer of Australia. Mr. Keating speaks from experience and does not sugar coat the current economic turmoil. While the three video clips (listed below) run approximately 20 minutes in total length, please allow me to provide a bullet point overview of some of the highlights. When you do have some spare time, I strongly encourage you to view these clips and gain the benefits of his wisdom. I do not think you will be disappointed, although you may be a bit dismayed as to his blunt honesty. In the meantime, here’s a brief overview: (more…)
Posted in American Consumers, Australia, Bad Bank, Banking Institutions, Barack Obama, China, Current Affairs, Democratic Party, Economy, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, General, Global Finance | 3 Comments »
