RSS Feed
Twitter
Facebook
Email
HomeWhat Will Really Happen in Europe?
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 5th, 2011 6:44 PM |
Are we really supposed to believe the news released today that German Prime Minister Angela Merkel and French Prime Minister Nicolas Sarkozy favor a meaningful change in the Maastricht Treaty which serves as the basis for the European Union?
Seriously, how many times have we gone down this road hearing that the European heads of state and central bankers have struck a deal to save the EU and the euro?
Didn’t we just hear news of that sort merely a month ago, and now once again all eyes and ears are on the next major European summit to be held later this week? In typical, political fashion, the markets and ministers are front running the summit in an attempt to convey an air of equanimity while pretending that they are about to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat. (more…)
Is Germany Preparing a European Power Play?
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 17th, 2011 10:36 AM |
What will be the end game for the European Union? Clearly the EU will not and cannot maintain the status quo.
With contagion clearly spreading throughout the EU and by extension the global economy, the stakes within the EU are raised almost on a daily basis. Where will this end up?
Who knows but what we do know is that the “road to perdition” or some form of “extended purgatory” will ultimately run not through Brussels, nor London, nor Paris, nor Athens, nor Rome but through the German capital of Berlin.
What are the Germans thinking? What might they have in store? (more…)
When Will The European Union Collapse?
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 10th, 2011 8:36 AM |
2011? 2012? 2013? 2015? 2020?
Who is willing to make book that the European Union as we know it will no longer exist within any of the time frames highlighted above? You think I’m reaching? I don’t. Why? Let’s navigate.
The core principle of the Prisoner’s Dilemma promotes that individual economic entities will act in their own self interest at the expense of a collective interest. We witness this dilemma at work within many economic circles in the world today.
Why do individual economic units behave in such a fashion? Often a lack of trust and a true sense of partnership will compel one economic unit– be it a state, a nation, or a trade bloc– from fully cooperating and embracing its supposed partner. While this dilemma is causing real conflict and friction in many parts of the world today, I believe the dilemma is most troubling within the peripheral countries of EU. Why so? (more…)
European Bank Stress Tests Confirmed as Shams
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 7th, 2010 6:53 AM |
I have long since given up the belief that our government officials and financial regulators will demand real transparency and full disclosure in the pursuit of unquestioned integrity across our economic landscape. While some may deem me overly cynical for that statement, too much proof and too many situations leave me no other choice. Where do we witness more financial artifice this morning? Let’s look across the pond.
In late July, I questioned the integrity of the European Bank Stress Tests and wrote, Will European Bank Stress Tests Be “Garbage In, Garbage Out?”:
All eyes will turn toward Europe this afternoon for the much anticipated release of the Euro-style Bank Stress Tests. Those who truly embrace real ’sense on cents’ know that the process and the data are far more important than the actual results. Why is that? If these tests are charades or nothing more than ‘garbage in,’ then the results will most assuredly be ‘garbage out.’
Well, while gullible investors and government officials worldwide may not care to know the real state of the European banks, those of us who truly treasure ‘sense on cents’ are not surprised to now see European financial sewage streaming across the newswire. (more…)
European Bank Stress Tests? Nein, Danke!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 1st, 2010 8:58 AM |
How do you think the wizards in Washington are feeling about the European bailout structured two weeks ago at their behest? In those two weeks, the Euro has plummeted another 5%, equities continue to suffer, and credit spreads continue to widen.
Our Washington wizards are looking back into their bag of tricks and now recommending another of their ‘shell game’ proposals to their European counterparts. Which proposal might this be? How do you spell charade? Try, bank stress tests.
Treasury Secretary Geithner is pressuring European central bankers to perform and release bank stress tests as a precursor to restoring financial health and stability into the European system. The Wall Street Journal highlights Geithner’s recommendation this morning in writing, U.S. to Push Europe on Stress Tests:
The U.S. intends to urge Europe to disclose publicly the results of bank stress tests as a way to calm jitters over the health of the Continent’s financial system, U.S. officials said. (more…)
Is the Federal Reserve Behind the European Bailout? Audit the Fed!! [UPDATED with video]
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 10th, 2010 12:52 PM |
Is the American taxpayer ultimately bailing out the European Union? Far fetched? Don’t be so sure.
While the focus of the European bailout has been on the European Central Bank, the European Union, and the IMF, little attention is being given to swap lines which were reopened between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
The ECB has steadfastly fought the idea of breeching the principles which formed the European common currency (the Euro) in order to fashion a bailout for the EU. Did the ECB crater to political pressure by the EU? Or, did the risks of the bailout shift from the ECB to another large central bank? Such as? The Federal Reserve! (more…)
Euro Crisis Merely Delayed, Not Averted
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 10th, 2010 8:39 AM |
They blinked.
The European Union and European Central Bank stole a play from the wizards in Washington to avert an immediate currency crisis in the EU and the potential ripple effect around the world. Did they do the right thing? For me, the question of addressing the fiscal crisis within the EU is not one of right or wrong; rather, when the crisis comes, how large will it be and how long will it last?
The trillion dollar package provided by the European Central Bank, the European Union itself, and the IMF is a combination of loan guarantees and quantitative easing. Shock and awe and punish those who would dare sell the Euro short, right? Clearly, the massive injection of capital will squeeze those who have shorted the Euro, but what about the long haul?
The EU is subverting the very tenets upon which the union was founded. Those tenets precluded this type of financial bailout. (more…)
Today’s Market Meltdown Is Due to Europe’s House of Cards
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 4th, 2010 10:33 AM |
Thanks to 12th Street Capital for bringing my attention to Europe’s Web of Debt highlighted the other day in The New York Times. The tangled web of interconnected liabilities is only exacerbated by exposures in the credit derivatives market. This situation is very similar to the interconnected Wall Street meltdown in 2008. Think of Greece as Bear Stearns and Spain as Lehman for example. (The image below is too large to fit in the allotted space on this site, so click on the image to view its entirety.)
Banks and governments in these five shaky economies owe each other many billions of euros — converted here to dollars — and have even larger debts to Britain, France and Germany. Arrow widths are proportional to debt amounts.
Today’s market meltdown is directly related to this tangled web.
LD
