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HomeSee Me in My Office
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 11th, 2009 7:29 PM |
What student in high school, college, or graduate school does not dread hearing his teacher or professor remark, “young man, see me in my office!” Good news is typically shared in an open forum even if in private discussion. Breaking out the ruler is often reserved for “the office.”
Picture this, as young Barack Obama and Timmy Geithner go in to meet their professor, Mr. Wall Street Economist.
“You wanted to see us, sir?”
“Yes. Even though it’s early in the marking period, I need to speak with both of you about your performance. I detect some issues.”
“Well, just what do you mean, sir? We’re trying hard. We’re working at grasping the material.”
“It strikes me, gentlemen, that you are not fully focused, you are stuck more on appearance than substance, you are quite glib at times, and have an interest more in being liked than in being comprehensive. Those are not the building blocks for long term success!!”
Taken fully aback, the gentlemen lean forward and apprise the professor, “Change is coming. Don’t worry, you will see a rededication and resulting redistribution in our performance. We have become friendly with some previous students who have offered to help us: Nancy, Harry, Hillary, Steny, Chris, and a few other all have reached out. We’ll speak with them. Maybe we can borrow their notes! We’re not going back, we’re moving forward. Change!!”
The professor responds, “I hope so, but I have always thought blind hope is a lousy hedge. We’ll see!!”
If only Barack and Tim were merely going through school and had the luxury of learning on the job; however, in real life Obama, Geithner Get Low Grades From Economists.
LD
Keating Undresses Geithner
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 9th, 2009 12:37 PM |
One of the few countries in the world to escape the worst of this economic tsunami is Australia. I introduced you to former Australian Prime Minister and Treasurer Paul Keating on February 18th in my piece entitled A Fresh and Honest Perspective. Keating was brutally honest in the video clip (thank you SR for providing it!!) included in that article .
I love an honest man!!
Former Australian Prime Minister and Treasurer Paul Keating
Well, Mr. Keating has spoken again and I am listening to him very closely as I strongly believe I am more educated and informed as a result. Our domestic officials and media outlets should take heed.
In an article published in this past Saturday’s Sydney Morning Herald, Obama’s Economic Saviour Savaged as Keating Let’s Rip. Keating offers a piercing review of then Treasury Officer Geithner’s structuring of an IMF led rescue plan of the Southeast Asian crisis in 1997-98. For those unaware, many countries in SE Asia had massive infusions of foreign capital in the form of debt to facilitate infrastructure development. Geithner and then IMF Chief Michael Camdessus structured a plan that injected $200 billion dollars in the form of IMF loans to refloat the economy. Keating maintains that Geithner and Camdessus totally misdiagnosed the problem and in turn the solution. (more…)
Wie Geht’s?
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 26th, 2009 4:30 PM |
I have always been intrigued by Germany. From the history of the republic, to the wars, the division and reunification, Berlin, Munich, the food, the beer — there is a lot going on there. I had the good fortune of spending a college semester in Freiburg, which is in the southwestern corner of the country. “Wie geht’s,” meaning “how are you,” evokes many pleasant memories. The education both inside the classroom and out was fabulous.
There is little doubt that Germany carries the most weight within the European Union. Germany suffered massive inflation after the Weimar Republic and the fear of hyperinflation is deeply embedded in their culture. Given my experience and interest, I watch developments there fairly closely. (more…)
Going “All In”
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 26th, 2009 10:59 AM |
The government yesterday released the specifics of the Bank Stress Test to be undertaken by the 19 major banking institutions in our country. Those details in conjunction with the testimony provided this week by Treasury Secretary Geithner and Fed chair Bernanke provide a very clear signal as to the government’s approach to our economic problems. In my estimation they are clearly indicating they are going “all in!”
Before we get to the market reactions, allow me to share insights from a highly regarded bank analyst and then comment myself.
Most analysts and economists view the government’s worst case scenarios under the bank test as not much more severe than what many already expect. I’m an optimist by nature but live by the mantra of hope for the best, prepare for the worst. The market will discount the government’s worst case. (more…)
Cheaters Never Win
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 12th, 2009 7:34 PM |
While our country has had high profile cheats such as Bernie Madoff, Barry Bonds, and the crowd from Enron amongst MANY others, we have other cheats permeating our lives every day. Tim Geithner offered that “he screwed up” on his taxes and Alex Rodriguez claimed that he was young and naive from 2001-2003 when he took steroids. In my opinion, I believe both of these individuals are representative of a society that has become far too lax in tolerating a lack of decency and integrity. This is not good business!!
In the midst of the current economic turmoil, we all want to look for individuals, groups, parties, and/or industries that are culpable and direct our indignation towards them. While we may gain some sort of short term gratification, are we changing the nature of the dialogue and in turn the course of our country? I think not.
The opportunity for the “silent majority” within the American public to voice their opinion, promote real core values of decency and accountability, and “lead” our country has never been greater. (more…)
One MASSIVE Margin Call
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 10th, 2009 3:46 PM |
In light of the serious economic crisis facing our country and the world today, there is understandably heightened interest and anticipation towards both the proposed Stimulus Plan and the newly designated Financial Stability Plan. Clearly every individual in our country is impacted by this turmoil and we are hopeful that our leaders in both the private and public sectors can display the real leadership necessary to “right the ship.” Let’s provide a concise review of the newly designated Financial Stability Plan proposed today by Secretary Geithner. I’ll then move toward a further review of our economy and what it means for us going forward.
Financial Stability Plan
Secretary Geithner prefaced his remarks by highlighting that this process will “take time to resolve.” He offered that there is plenty of blame to go around to the public and private sectors, including the regulatory and rating agencies. He acknowledged that public distrust has heightened in the process. While he believes the government is being appropriately aggressive with this plan, I do not share that opinion. I commend him for emphatically stating that there will be total transparency in the process, along with strong contingencies for any entities that borrow public funds. All details will be posted on www.financialstability.gov.
While Geithner did lay out the overview of the plan, he did not extensively provide details. The market has sold off 3% in the process. I believe the market also sold off given the realization that this plan is going to take a LONG time to make a real impact. Let’s get to the meat of the plan: (more…)
Economic/Market Highlights 11/21/08: V-O-L-A-T-I-L-I-T-Y !!
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 22nd, 2008 4:10 PM |
The fact that the equity markets totally reversed yesterday’s 5-6% selloff is not the biggest story of the day. In short, 400-500 point swings either way have become so normal as to not be a big deal. But they are a big deal and I will explain why shortly.
At 2:30pm the equity markets were basically unchanged. By 3:45pm the equity markets had rallied by 5-6% primarily on the announcement of Tim Geithner, NY Fed chair, as the nominee to be Treasury Secretary, while the other candidate for that role, Harvard professor and former Tsy Secretary for Bill Clinton, Larry Summers will be a senior White House economic advisor. Well done by Barack to get both on the team.
The markets respect Geithner and he will be easily approved. Summers would have faced some grilling for sexist comments he made while President of Harvard as well as the fact that he has already been Tsy Secy and it would have been viewed as “the more things change the more they stay the same”. Geithner obviously knows where all the bones are buried on Wall St. having worked very closely with Paulson over the entirety of this financial fiasco. The transition should be seamless. Geithner and Paulson have different styles but both are respected by Wall St. even if Paulson is not fully liked by Main St. The markets respect Geithner and this is obviously very important.
Read more here as to “Obama Likely to Pick Fed’s Geithner for Treasury.”
While Geithner and Summers are obviously highly respected they are not Houdini and they will not be able to singlehandedly turn our economy or markets around based on their name alone. (more…)
Tags: Sense on Cents, Sense on Cents commentary on market, Sense on Cents view of economy and markets, Tim Geithner, unemployment call, volatility in markets
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