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Archive for the ‘AIG’ Category

Things You May Have Missed

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 7th, 2009 10:08 AM |

The stream of data and market moving news is non-stop. I found these items of interest and look to share them with you as I believe they provide interesting insights and perspectives from around the world. I beg your indulgence if some of these items are not news to you, but if they are I hope they help you “navigate the economic landscape.”

1. Australia’s central bank cut its overnight lending rate to 3%, the lowest level in 49 years. While that rate is one of the highest rates in the developed world, it was widely expected to be left unchanged.  Australia has had one of the strongest economies in the world. This cut is an indication the Australian central bank believes their economy is slipping into a recession.

2. Japan’s exports are reported to be down 40% versus a year ago. Additionally, Japan’s industrial production is reported to be down 30+% during the same time period. These economic figures are significantly weaker than most other developed economies. As a frame of reference, most other developed economies’ industrial production is down 10-15%. Clearly, Japan is so dependent on exports and it is now paying the price of not having more fully diversified its economic foundation.

3. Gold is now trading near $880/oz. A month ago this precious metal was trading slightly above $1000/oz. Why is gold down recently? Coming out of the G-20, there are expectations that the IMF may sell some gold reserves to raise funds for low-income countries. I commented the other day that gold is not perfectly correlated with inflation due to changing fundamentals and technical variables in the gold market. This development with the IMF is a perfect case in point of my assertion. (more…)

Goldman and AIG

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 21st, 2009 5:49 AM |

There has been extensive speculation that Goldman Sachs unjustifiably benefited from the weakness at AIG over the last 6 months. While conspiracy theorists can and will have a field day with this story, at its core I think Goldman did what any well run firm should always do — protect its shareholders.

While the stock values of Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America flirted with total disaster, Goldman Sachs traded down but bottomed out at approximately $50 a share. That price does not strike me as indicative of a firm on the brink of bankruptcy. As Goldman now reveals, it had significant exposure to AIG but it also significantly hedged this exposure to AIG via other transactions. Thus, Goldman would have been negatively impacted by an AIG bankruptcy but not fatally impacted. (more…)

Friends Like This…Who Needs Enemies

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 19th, 2009 12:36 PM |

Senator Dodd did not exactly fall on the sword for the Obama administration as Bloomberg reports, Senator Chris Dodd Blames Obama Administration for Bonus Amendment.

The very legislators who rushed through the Stimulus Bill, which included provisions to prevent AIG-like bonuses, are now railing and pandering as never before.  Who are these politicians? Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Barney Frank, Chuck Schumer, and many more. Treasury Secretary Geithner Vows to Recoup AIG Bonuses as Lawmakers Express Fury.  Geithner himself feigned ignorance of his knowledge of these AIG payouts. 

What do we learn from this sort of political circus? (more…)

AIG: Ain’t It Great!!!

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 18th, 2009 8:54 AM |

Where can one generate billions in losses and still walk out the door with millions in compensation? Welcome to AIG, now known here at Sense on Cents as “Ain’t It Great!!” 

As details leak out of Congress as to who knew what and when did they know it, the level of political posturing is soaring. Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY), who has fed at the Wall Street trough for years, offers us these pearls of wisdom: “We intend to do everything in our power to prevent the payments from being made and to recoup the payments that have already been made. We will take this back and return it to its rightful owners, the American taxpayers.”  Chuck, where were you six months ago when the initial AIG loan was negotiated? (more…)

AIG Contracts a Brain Freeze

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 17th, 2009 9:27 AM |

Given the public outrage over the millions in bonus payments at AIG, is there any doubt that there has been a massive failure to perform by all involved?

When AIG was on the verge of bankruptcy last September, I am willing to bet the topic of employment contracts was not the lead item on the agenda. In fairly short order, though, as AIG was moving ahead with its attempt to sell divisions and repay the government loan, I have to believe outstanding liabilities, such as employment contracts, became a topic of discussion.  

Let’s bring the main players at that point in the process back to the table. What does Hank Paulson have to say? How about Robert Willumstad, former AIG CEO? How about current AIG CEO, Edward Liddy?

Make no mistake, both the government and AIG executives could have imposed their will to renegotiate – if not outright dismiss – any outstanding contracts. How? When an entity such as the government takes over a company, a change of control occurs. That change of control does not unilaterally extinguish outstanding liabilities, but it certainly opens them for renegotiation. The fact that these contracts were not seriously renegotiated is a massive failure to perform on behalf of the government officials and AIG executives. (more…)






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