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HomeNavigating Sense on Cents
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 11th, 2009 7:29 AM |
As many people travel this weekend to be with friends and family, I would like to take an opportunity to navigate the highways and byways of links and material connected to Sense on Cents.
I hope this post will open more eyes and ears to wider avenues of information as we collectively try to make sense of the economy, markets, and world of global finance.
If I could beg your indulgence, if any of these links do not interest you but you feel they may help others, please pass them along. I thank you in advance.
With no further adieu, let’s travel around Sense on Cents . . .
Career Planning: I have always taken pleasure in providing career guidance. I provide a wealth of Must Read articles from a variety of sources along with a Workshop for developing a game plan.
Market Data: this page connects to real time market data from the Wall Street Journal. Every sector of the market is a mere point and click away. Stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, economic data, international markets, historical graphs, and more…
Newsworthy: some stories have made headlines, while others are off the beaten path. These stories come from your local papers and from posts around the world. I welcome sharing them with you.
No Quarter Radio: “Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle” is my weekly Sunday evening radio program. I share insights and perspectives on the markets and economy while also hosting outstanding professionals from all corners of finance as my guests. All shows are archived and available as podcasts on iTunes. I also provide an audio player right here on Sense on Cents immediately after the completion of each show so that you can listen to a playback of the show right from this site.
The Reading Room is filled with a variety of books (pleasure, finance, inspirational, educational) that I have enjoyed and found impactful.
For those working their way up the learning curve (aren’t we all?), I have
Primers on the following topics:
Investing: anything you could ever possibly want defined or simplified.
Mortgage Market and Mortgage Finance
Financial Aid
Insurance
Debt Management
I also closely track a number of professional money managers, economists, and analysts. This collection of pro’s pros are my Economic All-Stars and include:
Laszlo Birinyi: outstanding equity manager and Wall Street veteran
Nouriel Roubini: highly acclaimed NYU economist
Jeff Gundlach: the highly acclaimed Chief Investment Officer of Trust Company of the West
Bob Rodriguez: along with his First Pacific Advisors colleague Tom Atteberry, named Morningstar’s 2008 Fixed Income Managers of the Year
Bill Gross: the highly acclaimed bond manager at Pacific Investment Management Company
Greg Mankiw: widely respected Harvard Professor of Economics
John Mauldin: a true favorite of mine, this market analyst is amazingly well connected
Sheila Bair: the chair of the FDIC and, in my opinion, the preeminent regulator in the U.S. government today.
Carmen Reinhart: Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland
Thought Leaders: 22 of the finest economic minds in the world today connected to Project Syndicate, an international association of 415 newspapers in 150 countries !!
If you are reading this post, I hope this trip has opened new avenues of interest for you. As the moderator, I actively engage readers, so please do not hesitate to ask questions and leave comments, or – as some may say – sign the Guest Book!! Please share the site with friends, family, and colleagues.
Ultimately, I hope you enjoy coming to Sense on Cents as much as I do!
Have a blessed holiday ~
LD
Mum’s the Word
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 10th, 2009 12:40 PM |
The movie Goodfellas provides a wealth of material for comparative analysis of the markets. The “insider activity,” the “fooling around,” “the payoffs,” and “the gambling” all make for great drama on the screen. Truth be told, one does not have to look all that hard to find striking similarities to certain activities in the world of Wall Street, and for that matter, Washington.
One of my favorite scenes in the movie occurs after the boys make the big heist. Immediately, the word is put out to keep your mouths shut and no indications of newfound wealth.
Back to reality. In terms of “putting the fix” into the world of our major money center banks, isn’t the relaxation of the mark-to- market the “newfound wealth”? Isn’t the “keep your mouths shut” the equivalent of the Treasury telling the banks not to comment on results of the Bank Stress Test? Speaking of the Bank Stress Tests, Bloomberg reports:
The U.S. Federal Reserve has told Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and other banks to keep mum on the results of “stress tests” that will gauge their ability to weather the recession, people familiar with the matter said.
The Fed wants to ensure that the report cards don’t leak during earnings conference calls scheduled for this month. Such a scenario might push stock prices lower for banks perceived as weak and interfere with the government’s plan to release the results in an orderly fashion later this month.
Clearly the Fed and Treasury are trying to keep their “boys” quiet and lay low while the real regulators of the market, that being honest investors, are walking the beat.
If any of the boys talk, then the leaders of the family won’t be able to coordinate the stories and hoodwink the public.
Whatever happened to, “as long as you tell the truth, you don’t have to worry about having a bad memory”?
It seems we are operating much more in the realm of, “well, I can tell you but . . . ”
The Goodfellas: Henry Hill, Jimmy Conway, Paul Cicero, and Tommy DeVito
Henry . . . Jimmy . . . Paulie . . . Tommy . . .
Please let me know who in our government and world of finance are most appropriate to play each of these individuals? Let’s have some fun.
From The Archives: “Where’s The Money??”
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 10th, 2009 8:16 AM |
On a quiet Good Friday morning, brief reflection never hurts. In that spirit, I thought it may be worthwhile to go into the archives for our year-end piece 2008. This piece was originally published on December 29, 2008:
I thought about providing an outlook for 2009. I considered offering further opinions on Obama’s economic plans. Perhaps a review of the Bush economic program would be well received. Then yesterday, the lead editorial in my local newspaper asked “Where did the bailout money go?” I had my answer. In previous pieces I have touched upon why I thought there was a very good chance this money would not flow through the system. I hesitate to continue to refer back to my piece published on November 12th (The Wall St. Model is Broken…and Won’t Soon be Fixed), but for new readers I do firmly believe it is as good as anything I have read or seen in any publication in explaining how we find ourselves in our current position.
Please allow me to digress for a second. I will admit that I am not a movie buff, but I do enjoy films that focus on the success of underdogs, have a measure of financial intrigue, or perhaps a combination of the two. Not surprisingly, a few of my favorite movies are, Rocky, Jerry Maguire, and The Sting. (more…)
“Beholden to Failed Banksters”
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 9th, 2009 3:56 PM |
Any investor or manager with a degree of experience knows that the “first loss is the best loss.” What do I mean by that? Once the market detects a loss or a weakened position, the price for that asset will remain capped unless and until the asset is sold or liquidated. This price action occurs in every sector of every market.
Welcome to the world of global finance 2009. As banks, insurance companies, hedge funds, and other financial entities deal with losses, we see a lack of aggressive posture being taken on dealing with these losses. Why? Once moral hazard is violated with a single entity, every other entity will look to violate it as well.
Immediate losses are forestalled in hopes that they will be covered or disguised. However, every loss ultimately must be recognized. By whom and how is the question.
At this juncture, more of the losses in our financial system are being directed toward the taxpayers. How? Via the wide array of government programs. What is the cost? A likely underperforming economy due to a lack of credit, and higher taxes to offset lower revenues. (more…)
Let’s Review the Wells Fargo Earnings
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 9th, 2009 12:02 PM |
A quick review of Wells Fargo’s earnings numbers this morning leaves us with as many questions as answers.
Wells posted record earnings of $3 billion largely driven by a significant increase in refinancing activity in their mortgage origination business. Their acquisition of Wachovia in the 4th quarter supported the origination business.
Analysts on the street are questioning the depth of detail provided along with the level of reserves taken against future losses. Highly regarded bank analyst Chris Whalen offerered that bank executives and regulators will present a rosy picture while not providing the support material to back it up.
In regard to the FASB relaxation of the mark-to-market and its impact on bank earnings, Whalen said, “accounting is a wonderful thing.”
Even after a Wells executive commented that the FASB relaxation had no impact on the banks’ earnings, Bloomberg reporters raised questions about that assertion. Bloomberg asked, “do we believe that?”
I don’t know…do we? Without total transparency it gets very difficult to read the charts and plot the appropriate course of action.
LD
Let’s Meet Mario Gabelli
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 8th, 2009 7:27 PM |
Mario Gabelli of GAMCO Investors is widely regarded as one of the top stock pickers in the business. His main fund was down only 1% over the last twelve months.
I have had the pleasure of meeting Mario a few times. Despite his enormous success, I definitely get the impression that Mario views himself as that young, aggressive guy fresh off the streets of the Bronx who still needs to earn his stripes everyday.
He shares some insights on a few specific companies in this video provided by WSJ’s MarketWatch.
For those interested in the markets, Mario is not one who takes kindly to “outperforming an index.” Mario hates to lose money under any circumstances.
LD
Bank Stress Tests: Major Sham??
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 8th, 2009 11:35 AM |
Why is it urban school dropout rates are 50%? Well, I am sure there would be as many reasons for that horrendous statistic as there are dropouts. The fact of the matter is, though, the state of urban education has promoted a phenomena known as “social promotion.” If students aren’t qualified to do the work, testing has been gamed, standards have been lowered, and corners have been cut. As a result, urban education at this stage is an unmitigated disaster. What does this have to do with the current state of our economy and the world of finance? I am glad you asked.
If banks, much like students, are not required to pass rigorous testing, then “social promotion” in finance will produce results not unlike those in education–underperformance and ultimately an inability to compete on the global stage.
Against that backdrop, I personally looked forward to the results of the Bank Stress Tests. Let’s finally get an honest assessment of the “students.” Let’s see how they have performed and let’s project to see how they will perform!!
As with any test, the results are only meaningful if the process and proctor have unquestioned integrity. The proctors for the Bank Stress Test are none other than Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Fed chair Ben Bernanke. Why is a testing authority of the magnitude of FDIC, led by Sheila Bair, not more involved in the process? Ms. Bair is the one individual in our country with the greatest level of interaction with and understanding of the student body, that being the banking industry as a whole and individual banks specifically. (more…)
