Sense on Cents

A mixed bag of items you may have missed in the midst of some of the daily noise and pandering:

1. Bloomberg reported this morning that the government (Treasury and Federal Reserve) expects ALL 19 banks undergoing the Bank Stress Tests to pass!! Wahoo!! Bloomberg further reported, however, that certain banks may continue to need ongoing capital injections. Would the proctors of the exam please release the questions so the FDIC can provide a more thorough review? What a SHAM.

Please review, Bank Stress Tests: Major Sham?

2. The Federal Reserve yesterday released the minutes of its March 18th meeting. The Fed revised its projection for a bottoming of unemployment to mid-2010 from the end of 2009. Additionally, they lowered their projections for a turn in the economy. Lastly, in regard to the Fed’s purchases of government and mortgage-backed securities, they had differing opinions as to how to approach these purchases. The FT reports:

one Fed policymaker wanted to stick to buying mortgage-related securities. Another wanted to add only more Treasury purchases. Buying both was a way to keep everyone happy and hedge the Fed’s bets in the light of uncertainty as to which type of asset purchase might prove effective.

“Several members noted that working across a range of assets and instruments was appropriate when the effects of any one tactic were uncertain,” the minutes say.

Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan, said the “uncertainty rationale” was novel. It added up to an experimental, portfolio-based approach to policy rather than one driven by strong conviction.

For what it is worth, on the day of the Fed’s announcement to buy both government and mortgage-backed debt, rates rallied close to 40 basis points, a truly historic move. Since then, those rates have totally reversed. While the Fed is buying, obviously somebody else is selling. Who may that be? The U.S. Treasury for one. I mean, the Treasury could literally walk the government notes and bonds down the street in Washington to the Fed and put these securities in their vault while the Fed simultaneously puts cash deposits into the Treasury vault.

Do you get the sense, though, that Fed officials are winging it to a large extent? I do.

3. The WSJ reports 10 states are reportedly ready to announce tax increases. Which states and which taxes?

A free fall in tax revenue is driving more state lawmakers to turn to broad-based tax increases in a bid to close widening budget gaps.

At least 10 states are considering some kind of major increase in sales or income taxes: Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin. California and New York lawmakers already have agreed on multibillion-dollar tax increases that went into effect earlier this year.

Fiscal experts say more states are likely to try to raise tax revenue in coming months, especially once they tally the latest shortfalls from April 15 income-tax filings, often the biggest single source of funds for the 43 states that levy them.

Does this make you want to revisit discussions about fiscal discipline and living within one’s means? Does this make you want to revisit the necessity of certain “special interest” programs propagated as payoffs for local pols?

4. Costco is a store which should do well in a challenging economic environment. Discount prices on quality goods never go out of style. Bloomberg reports this morning that traffic at Costco stores increased by 4% last month. However, total sales at Costco declined by 5% to the weakest level since last November. Consumers continue to get squeezed.

LD

This entry was posted on Thursday, April 9th, 2009 at 7:14 AM and is filed under FDIC, General, Government funds, Wall Street. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.