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HomeConsumer Demand Continues to Contract
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 10th, 2010 8:32 AM |
For those inclined to monitor the pulse of the American consumer, please make it a habit to regularly visit the Consumer Metrics Institute. Rick Davis and team do fabulous, cutting edge, and real-time analysis of consumer activity in our domestic economy. Recall that Rick is already way ahead of the curve in calling for -1.5% 2nd quarter GDP and has an early call for a -2% 3rd quarter GDP.
What has Rick seen over the last ten days? Continued contraction in consumer spending. Let’s navigate. (more…)
Consumer Metrics Institute Projects 3rd Quarter GDP of -2%!! That’s Right -2%!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 2nd, 2010 8:25 AM |
Do you hear a grinding sound? Listen a little harder. That sound is the brakes being applied to the U.S. economy.
The current price action in commodities markets (as highlighted in my commentary yesterday, “Commodities Growling Like a Bear”) is very much reflective of this braking process. How do we measure the slowing? Where can we gain evidence? Let’s turn to Rick Davis’ fabulous work at Consumer Metrics Institute.
Recall that Rick has not only been way out in front with his calls on the growth of the U.S. economy, but also very accurate especially given that he is projecting GDP a full 4 months prior to its official release. (more…)
Consumer Metrics Institute: ‘Double Dip’ Very Real
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 22nd, 2010 2:44 PM |
I have become a huge fan of Rick Davis of the Consumer Metrics Institute, the Colorado-based effort that tracks real-time consumer purchases to project future economic growth. Recall that during my March 28th conversation with Rick on No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle, Rick projected that 2nd quarter 2010 GDP would register a -1.5% (yes, that is a negative GDP for 2nd quarter 2010). You can read a recap of my interview with Rick here.
What does Rick see lately? Let’s navigate. Rick wrote yesterday:
Speaking of what we do, our Contraction Watch (see top chart below) continues to show a contraction event that has not yet formed a clear bottom. The contraction has, however, extended long enough that the likelihood of the dreaded ‘double dip’ has become very real. (more…)
U.S. Economy = “Walking Pneumonia”
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 30th, 2010 12:36 PM |
The other night in my conversation with Richard Davis on No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle, I defined my outlook for the U.S. economy in 2010 as the equivalent of ‘walking pneumonia.’ What do I mean? Let’s look at today’s economic releases, Consumer Confidence and Home Prices.
Although pundits may want to promote the rebound in these statistics as a harbinger of economic health, I personally do not think we will see these measures running away from us anytime soon. Have you ever had ‘walking pneumonia?’ I have. You don’t move all that quickly. At times, you wonder what the hell is wrong with you. Welcome to the Uncle Sam economy 2010. (more…)
No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle Welcomes Rick Davis, Sunday Night at 8pm ET
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 27th, 2010 9:56 AM |
UPDATE: This episode of NQR’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle has concluded. You can listen to a recording of the episode in its entirety by clicking the play button on the audio player provided below. Once the audio begins, you can advance or rewind to any portion of the episode by clicking at any point along the play bar.
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If 70% of our economy is driven by the consumer, and Sense on Cents is trying to help people navigate the “economic” landscape, then prudence dictates we drill deeper into how the American consumer is doing during these challenging times.
What drives consumer behavior? How is the consumer adapting his/her personal spending habits? What triggers personal consumption? How can we source this information without being captive to the heavily massaged data provided by the government or industries with inherent bias? Well, if you are interested in learning more you have come to the right place as this Sunday evening from 8-9pm ET, No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle Welcomes Rick Davis.
Richard C. Davis is the founder and President of the Consumer Metrics Institute. The Consumer Metrics Institute grew out of Mr. Davis’ frustration with the lack of timeliness and poor quality of information available to individual investors about the consumer economy in the United States.
“It became clear to me that nearly all of the so-called ‘Leading Indicators’ available to individual investors were in fact no more timely or leading than last month’s account statements,” he says. (more…)
