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HomeBaupost’s Seth Klarman Warns of Asset Bubble
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 10th, 2014 7:51 AM |
More often than not, I take the wisdom provided by selected talking heads and industry insiders with a pound of salt.
Without being overly cynical strictly for cynicism’s sake, I discount a fair bit of the analysis put forth by many financial sleuths based on the individual ‘talking his own position.’ In fact, I believe that many outlets predominantly look for guests who play the game and toe the industry’s party line.
To that end, I look elsewhere for insights and perspectives that I really appreciate. Who are some of the money managers I truly respect but are rarely seen on major financial outlets? Bob Rodriguez, Jeremy Grantham, and Seth Klarman, who just so happens to offer some pointed insights highlighted today in a commentary in the FT: >>>>>> (more…)
Caution: The Market Looks Dangerously ‘Overbought’
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 6th, 2010 8:48 AM |
Is the equity market overbought? Am I supposed to be allocating capital to the equity market after this enormous runup? Is there value in the market, or is this simply one massive momentum trade? Why is overall equity volume so light? Is that an indicator that the market is operating on borrowed time?
All great questions. If I had the exact answers and told you so, I’d be a certifiable liar. These questions can only be addressed on a relative basis. On that note, one of the best measuring sticks that I’ve always used in assessing overall market strength and direction is known as Relative Strength Index, or RSI. What is that? (more…)
If The Market Declined 15% . . .
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 28th, 2009 9:22 AM |
. . . would you be surprised? What would you do? What if the market declined by 20%? Would you be surprised? What would you do? How about if the market rose by 10% to 20%? Would you be surprised? I would.
The reason I ask these questions is an attempt to address the fundamental question as to what the market is telling us and what American consumers believe.
The equity market has traditionally been a reliable indicator of the future economy. The market provides a discounted valuation of future earnings. Those earnings drive companies and the economy at large.
As the market declines and prospects wane, businesses and consumers react accordingly. On the other side of the coin, as the market improves forecasting an improving economy, businesses and consumers react accordingly . . . until now. What is going on? (more…)
