Posts Tagged ‘Economic Stimulus’
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 5th, 2011 8:16 AM |
What does our economic future hold? Great question, right?
Is our economy truly rebounding as much as our equity markets may portend or are we riding high predominantly due to government stimulus similar to an economic anabolic steroid? Is our future as bleak as the numerous and sundry doomsayers would proclaim? Does it appear as if our economy has a split personality or is operating in two different realms? Do you often wonder what others—especially those in Washington—may be seeing if the economic landscape in your backyard remains very challenging?
I continue to believe our overall economy is operating and will continue to operate with a ‘walking pneumonia’ type condition. The massive debt burdens at all levels of our economy continue to serve as a drag and inhibit any sort of truly robust rebound. Let’s navigate and take the pulse of Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute which captures real time discretionary online consumer activity. (more…)
Tags: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, ARRA, BEA GDP report, consumption patterns, Daily Growth Index, debt burdens in our economy, discretionary consumer activity, divergence in economy, divergence in our economic readings, economic growth or contraction, economic health, economic multiplier, Economic Stimulus, Economy, government stimulus, health of economy, how does ARRA work, how healthy is our economy, is economic recovery real, is economy real, is there a real economic recovery, measuring consumer activity, Rick Davis Consumer Metrics Institute, shovel ready projects, tale of two economies, walking pneumonia economy, what is supporting economy, when will economy rebound, when will people feel economic recovery
Posted in General | 1 Comment »
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 29th, 2010 5:56 AM |
Here we are a full three years into our economic malaise, Uncle Sam has thrown everything and the kitchen sink at the economy yet we have little to no traction in terms of growth and momentum. Will another trillion dollars of liquidity do the trick? Well, while the Fed’s liquidity may move markets, will it move the economy? Don’t bet on it. The Fed and its brethren on Wall Street and in Washington are reluctant to truly level with the American people. How so?
Our nation is experiencing a serious structural change in our economy — not a mere ‘enormous downturn’ in the midst of the business cycle. If our central bankers and government officials were to emphasize this point, it may cause a sharper retrenchment in our current growth but it would likely lead to a quicker rebound. Before we get into why our bankers and their political cronies are reluctant to make this acknowledgement, let’s take the pulse of an array of venture capitalists, money managers, and others who provide the capital to a wide array of companies. What do these individuals think the economic impact of another round of quantitative easing might be? (more…)
Tags: Blackstone Group, Buttonwood Gathering, central bankers, Cliff Asness, Cliff Asness of AQR CApital MAnagement, Colm O' Shea, Comac Capital LLP, Economic Stimulus, Fed liquidity, Fed policy of QE2, Fed's credibility, Federal Reserve policy, how to stimulate the economy, Pimco Bill Gross, Pimco Likens US to Ponzi Scheme, QE2, quantitative easing, quantitative easing 2, quantitative easing policy, redistribution, Schwarzman Says Fed Easing Wont Make Much Difference, stimulating the economy, structural change vs business cycle, The Economist, Tony James, UK based The Telegraph, Wall Street Washington relationship, Wall Street-Washington incest
Posted in General | 7 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 3rd, 2009 3:09 PM |
What are the biggest stories in the market today? Consider the following . . .
1. Warren Buffett makes his single largest acquisition ever with the $34 billion purchase of Burlington Northern
2. Ford posts surprisingly strong auto sales
3. Royal Bank of Scotland becomes the biggest banking bailout yet with another injection of capital
4. Johnson & Johnson announces plans to layoff 7% of its global workforce
Each of these developments is truly meaningful. Interestingly enough, numbers one and two are decidedly constructive while numbers three and four are clearly quite bearish about global prospects. Despite the magnitude of these stories, in my opinion, they pale in comparison to developments in the precious metals and bond markets today. What is happening? Let’s navigate.
The Treasury yield curve is steepening dramatically today with yields on longer term notes and bonds rising by 6 to 8 basis points, while shorter maturities are unchanged. A snapshot of the Treasury market is provided by WSJ Market Data.
Why is the curve steepening? What does that mean? What are the implications for other markets? All great questions. Let’s navigate further. (more…)
Tags: another stimulus package, easy money, Economic Stimulus, Gold Climbs to Record as India's Central bank Buys IMF Bullion, IMF sells gold to India, impact of stimulus on deficit, impact of stimulus package on comodities especially gold, impact of stimulus package on interest rates, implications of another stimulus package, India's central bank is buying gold, Leoanrd Kaplan of Prospector Asset Management, stimulus, Timothy Green author of The Ages of Gold, what does steepening yield curve mean, what is driving gold, what is easy money, who is buying gold, why are interest rates moving higher, why is gold up so much in price, why is yield curve steepening, will we have a second stimulus package
Posted in bond market, commodities, Economic Stimulus, Economy, General, gold | 12 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 30th, 2009 11:20 AM |
I love a good debate. Much like a prize fight, a healthy debate can ebb and flow as those ‘in the ring’ bob and weave while trying to score points. I so enjoyed a debate highlighted by The Wall Street Journal between the chief economists from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan that I highlighted it in the Newsworthy section of Sense on Cents. For those who don’t visit that section of my site, I am compelled to replay this debate here.
In the inimitable words of Michael Buffer, “let’s get ready to rumble” as Goldman, J.P. Morgan Economists Debate Shape of Recovery:
The recession might be over, but how goes the recovery?
We posed that question to two prominent Wall Street economists with two very different views of 2010. Bruce Kasman, chief economist at J.P. Morgan, sees the U.S. growing at about a 3.5% pace for most of next year. That appears optimistic compared to Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, who sees gross domestic product growth of 2% or so at the start of the year tapering off to just 1.5% by year-end.
The following is an edited transcript of their remarks during a recent conference call with The Wall Street Journal.
Looking ahead to 2010, what kind of recovery do you see? (more…)
Tags: Bruce Kasman, deflation, economic recovery, Economic Stimulus, Goldman JP Morgan Economists Debate Shape of Recovery, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, Jan Hatzius, job growth, JP Morgan, labor markets, lets get ready to rumble, recession, Unemployment, what type of economic recovery
Posted in Economy, General, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan | No Comments »
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